Simulation of tail risk noise and asset price
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Updated
Aug 28, 2024 - Jupyter Notebook
Simulation of tail risk noise and asset price
Predicting the probability of equity market crash events using historical return-based features, with a fixed crash definition and a focus on tail risk. The model is evaluated using the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) as a proxy for the S&P 500 Index, with data sourced via the yfinance API.
Regime detection using Hidden Markov Models with Swan Beta features to identify tail-risk market states.
Analyze cryptocurrency return dynamics, volatility, and risk from 2010–2025.
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