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Merged
andrewbaxter439 merged 16 commits into from
Sep 23, 2025
Merged

Experimental/lifetime draws #221

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12bf190
change employment draws to lifetime
andrewbaxter439 May 14, 2025
afc9748
Adding labour supply persistence probability
andrewbaxter439 Jun 3, 2025
0b65c21
Allow labour supply persistence from prev year at set probability
andrewbaxter439 Jun 3, 2025
0686448
revert to old labour supply model (pre Jun 2024)
andrewbaxter439 Jun 5, 2025
809b931
Revert "revert to old labour supply model (pre Jun 2024)"
andrewbaxter439 Jun 17, 2025
78b95a7
Add differential probability by employment
andrewbaxter439 Jun 17, 2025
662ce7e
fixed innovations assignment logic
andrewbaxter439 Jun 20, 2025
59567a3
oct 24 labour supply added
andrewbaxter439 Jun 20, 2025
761d4c1
now working labour supply coefs
andrewbaxter439 Jul 25, 2025
c7a5124
update parameters for persistence
andrewbaxter439 Jul 28, 2025
7301fbb
Merge branch 'develop' into experimental/lifetime_draws
andrewbaxter439 Jul 28, 2025
f914942
tidied code
andrewbaxter439 Jul 28, 2025
327e9ae
updated stats
andrewbaxter439 Jul 28, 2025
b4cfa40
updated statistics files
andrewbaxter439 Jul 29, 2025
6107434
update terms
andrewbaxter439 Aug 6, 2025
ddd2d82
updated statistics
andrewbaxter439 Aug 6, 2025
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Binary file modified input/reg_labourSupplyUtility.xlsx
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19 changes: 10 additions & 9 deletions src/main/java/simpaths/data/Parameters.java
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Expand Up @@ -18,10 +18,7 @@
import org.apache.commons.math3.distribution.MultivariateNormalDistribution;
import org.apache.commons.math3.distribution.NormalDistribution;
import org.apache.commons.math3.util.Pair;
import simpaths.data.startingpop.DataParser;
import simpaths.model.AnnuityRates;
import simpaths.model.decisions.Grids;
import simpaths.model.enums.*;
import simpaths.model.taxes.DonorTaxUnit;
import simpaths.model.taxes.MatchFeature;
import simpaths.model.taxes.database.TaxDonorDataParser;
Expand Down Expand Up @@ -241,6 +238,10 @@ else if(numberOfChildren <= 5) {
public static final double WEEKS_PER_MONTH = 365.25/(7.*12.); // = 4.348214286
public static final double WEEKS_PER_YEAR = 365.25 / 7.;

// Determine probability of yearly labour supply matches persisting from previous year
public static double labour_innovation_employment_persistence_probability = 0.9;
public static double labour_innovation_notinemployment_persistence_probability = 0.1;

public static final int HOURS_IN_WEEK = 24 * 7; //This is used to calculate leisure in labour supply
//Is it possible for people to start going to the labour module (e.g. age 17) while they are living with parents (until age 18)?
//Cannot see how its possible if it is the household that decides how much labour to supply. If someone finishes school at 17, they need to leave home before they can enter the labour market. So set age for finishing school and leaving home to 18.
Expand Down Expand Up @@ -277,8 +278,8 @@ else if(numberOfChildren <= 5) {

//public static int MAX_AGE_IN_EDUCATION;// = MAX_AGE;//30; // Max age a person can stay in education //Cannot set here, as MAX_AGE is not known yet. Now set to MAX_AGE in buildObjects in Model class.
//public static int MAX_AGE_MARRIAGE;// = MAX_AGE;//75; // Max age a person can marry //Cannot set here, as MAX_AGE is not known yet. Now set to MAX_AGE in buildObjects in Model class.
private static int MIN_START_YEAR = 2011; //Minimum allowed starting point. Should correspond to the oldest initial population.
private static int MAX_START_YEAR = 2021; //Maximum allowed starting point. Should correspond to the most recent initial population.
private static int MIN_START_YEAR = 2015; //Minimum allowed starting point. Should correspond to the oldest initial population.
private static int MAX_START_YEAR = 2019; //Maximum allowed starting point. Should correspond to the most recent initial population.
public static int startYear;
public static int endYear;
private static final int MIN_START_YEAR_TESTING = 2019;
Expand Down Expand Up @@ -1139,10 +1140,10 @@ else if(country.equals(Country.UK)) {
columnsEmploymentSelectionFemalesE = 29;
columnsLabourSupplyUtilityMales = 19;
columnsLabourSupplyUtilityFemales = 12;
columnsLabourSupplyUtilityMalesWithDependent = 23;
columnsLabourSupplyUtilityFemalesWithDependent = 23;
columnsLabourSupplyUtilityACMales = 17;
columnsLabourSupplyUtilityACFemales = 17;
columnsLabourSupplyUtilityMalesWithDependent = 15;
columnsLabourSupplyUtilityFemalesWithDependent = 15;
columnsLabourSupplyUtilityACMales = 31;
columnsLabourSupplyUtilityACFemales = 31;
columnsLabourSupplyUtilityCouples = 64;
columnsLabourCovid19_SE = 1;
columnsLabourCovid19_2a_processes = 1;
Expand Down
174 changes: 172 additions & 2 deletions src/main/java/simpaths/model/BenefitUnit.java
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Expand Up @@ -95,6 +95,8 @@ public class BenefitUnit implements EventListener, IDoubleSource, Weight, Compar
@Transient ArrayList<Triple<Les_c7_covid, Double, Integer>> covid19MonthlyStateAndGrossIncomeAndWorkHoursTripleFemale = new ArrayList<>(); // This ArrayList stores monthly values of labour market states and gross incomes, to be sampled from by the LabourMarket class, for the female member of the benefit unit

@Transient Innovations innovations;
@Transient private Double lastLabourInnov;
@Transient private Integer lastYear;

@Transient private Integer yearLocal;
@Transient private Occupancy occupancyLocal;
Expand Down Expand Up @@ -153,7 +155,7 @@ public BenefitUnit(Long id, long seed) {
key = new PanelEntityKey(id); //Sets up key

this.seed = seed;
innovations = new Innovations(9, seed);
innovations = new Innovations(9, 1, seed);

this.numberChildrenAll_lag1 = 0;
this.numberChildren02_lag1 = 0;
Expand Down Expand Up @@ -1108,7 +1110,28 @@ protected void updateLabourSupplyAndIncome() {
}

//Sample labour supply from possible labour (pairs of) values
double labourInnov = innovations.getDoubleDraw(5);
double labourInnov = 0;

// Check if:
// - single occupant is employed
// - or male of couple is employed
// - or male is not at risk of work and female is employed
// -> then persist employment at prob_{persist_employment}
// Otherwise
// -> persist unemployment at prob_{persist_unemployment}

if (occupancy.Single_Male.equals(occupancy) && male.atRiskOfWork() && male.getEmployed() == 1) {
labourInnov = getLabourInnovation(Parameters.labour_innovation_employment_persistence_probability);
} else if (occupancy.Single_Female.equals(occupancy) && female.atRiskOfWork() && female.getEmployed() == 1) {
labourInnov = getLabourInnovation(Parameters.labour_innovation_employment_persistence_probability);
} else if (occupancy.equals(Occupancy.Couple) &&
((male.atRiskOfWork() && male.getEmployed() == 1) ||
(!male.atRiskOfWork() && female.atRiskOfWork() && female.getEmployed() == 1))) {
labourInnov = getLabourInnovation(Parameters.labour_innovation_employment_persistence_probability);
} else {
labourInnov = getLabourInnovation(Parameters.labour_innovation_notinemployment_persistence_probability);
}

try {
MultiKeyMap<Labour, Double> labourSupplyUtilityRegressionProbabilitiesByLabourPairs = convertRegressionScoresToProbabilities(labourSupplyUtilityRegressionScoresByLabourPairs);
labourSupplyChoice = ManagerRegressions.multiEvent(labourSupplyUtilityRegressionProbabilitiesByLabourPairs, labourInnov);
Expand Down Expand Up @@ -1529,6 +1552,30 @@ public enum Regressors {
MaleEduH_30,
MaleEduM_40,
MaleEduH_40,
MaleEduM_1,
MaleEduH_1,
MaleEduM_2,
MaleEduH_2,
MaleEduM_3,
MaleEduH_3,
MaleEduM_4,
MaleEduH_4,
FemaleEduM_10,
FemaleEduH_10,
FemaleEduM_20,
FemaleEduH_20,
FemaleEduM_30,
FemaleEduH_30,
FemaleEduM_40,
FemaleEduH_40,
FemaleEduM_1,
FemaleEduH_1,
FemaleEduM_2,
FemaleEduH_2,
FemaleEduM_3,
FemaleEduH_3,
FemaleEduM_4,
FemaleEduH_4,
MaleLeisure_dnc,
FemaleLeisure_dnc,
MaleLeisure_dnc02,
Expand Down Expand Up @@ -2416,6 +2463,78 @@ public double getDoubleValue(Enum<?> variableID) {
case MaleEduH_40 -> {
return (getMale() != null && getMale().getLabourSupplyWeekly().equals(Labour.FORTY) && getMale().getDeh_c3().equals(Education.High)) ? 1. : 0.;
}
case MaleEduM_1 -> {
return (getMale() != null && getFemale() != null && getFemale().getLabourSupplyWeekly().equals(Labour.TEN) && getMale().getDeh_c3().equals(Education.Medium)) ? 1. : 0.;
}
case MaleEduH_1 -> {
return (getMale() != null && getFemale() != null && getFemale().getLabourSupplyWeekly().equals(Labour.TEN) && getMale().getDeh_c3().equals(Education.High)) ? 1. : 0.;
}
case MaleEduM_2 -> {
return (getMale() != null && getFemale() != null && getFemale().getLabourSupplyWeekly().equals(Labour.TWENTY) && getMale().getDeh_c3().equals(Education.Medium)) ? 1. : 0.;
}
case MaleEduH_2 -> {
return (getMale() != null && getFemale() != null && getFemale().getLabourSupplyWeekly().equals(Labour.TWENTY) && getMale().getDeh_c3().equals(Education.High)) ? 1. : 0.;
}
case MaleEduM_3 -> {
return (getMale() != null && getFemale() != null && getFemale().getLabourSupplyWeekly().equals(Labour.THIRTY) && getMale().getDeh_c3().equals(Education.Medium)) ? 1. : 0.;
}
case MaleEduH_3 -> {
return (getMale() != null && getFemale() != null && getFemale().getLabourSupplyWeekly().equals(Labour.THIRTY) && getMale().getDeh_c3().equals(Education.High)) ? 1. : 0.;
}
case MaleEduM_4 -> {
return (getMale() != null && getFemale() != null && getFemale().getLabourSupplyWeekly().equals(Labour.FORTY) && getMale().getDeh_c3().equals(Education.Medium)) ? 1. : 0.;
}
case MaleEduH_4 -> {
return (getMale() != null && getFemale() != null && getFemale().getLabourSupplyWeekly().equals(Labour.FORTY) && getMale().getDeh_c3().equals(Education.High)) ? 1. : 0.;
}
case FemaleEduM_10 -> {
return (getMale() != null && getFemale() != null && getMale().getLabourSupplyWeekly().equals(Labour.TEN) && getFemale().getDeh_c3().equals(Education.Medium)) ? 1. : 0.;
}
case FemaleEduH_10 -> {
return (getMale() != null && getFemale() != null && getMale().getLabourSupplyWeekly().equals(Labour.TEN) && getFemale().getDeh_c3().equals(Education.High)) ? 1. : 0.;
}
case FemaleEduM_20 -> {
return (getMale() != null && getFemale() != null && getMale().getLabourSupplyWeekly().equals(Labour.TWENTY) && getFemale().getDeh_c3().equals(Education.Medium)) ? 1. : 0.;
}
case FemaleEduH_20 -> {
return (getMale() != null && getFemale() != null && getMale().getLabourSupplyWeekly().equals(Labour.TWENTY) && getFemale().getDeh_c3().equals(Education.High)) ? 1. : 0.;
}
case FemaleEduM_30 -> {
return (getMale() != null && getFemale() != null && getMale().getLabourSupplyWeekly().equals(Labour.THIRTY) && getFemale().getDeh_c3().equals(Education.Medium)) ? 1. : 0.;
}
case FemaleEduH_30 -> {
return (getMale() != null && getFemale() != null && getMale().getLabourSupplyWeekly().equals(Labour.THIRTY) && getFemale().getDeh_c3().equals(Education.High)) ? 1. : 0.;
}
case FemaleEduM_40 -> {
return (getMale() != null && getFemale() != null && getMale().getLabourSupplyWeekly().equals(Labour.FORTY) && getFemale().getDeh_c3().equals(Education.Medium)) ? 1. : 0.;
}
case FemaleEduH_40 -> {
return (getMale() != null && getFemale() != null && getMale().getLabourSupplyWeekly().equals(Labour.FORTY) && getFemale().getDeh_c3().equals(Education.High)) ? 1. : 0.;
}
case FemaleEduM_1 -> {
return (getMale() != null && getFemale() != null && getFemale().getLabourSupplyWeekly().equals(Labour.TEN) && getFemale().getDeh_c3().equals(Education.Medium)) ? 1. : 0.;
}
case FemaleEduH_1 -> {
return (getMale() != null && getFemale() != null && getFemale().getLabourSupplyWeekly().equals(Labour.TEN) && getFemale().getDeh_c3().equals(Education.High)) ? 1. : 0.;
}
case FemaleEduM_2 -> {
return (getMale() != null && getFemale() != null && getFemale().getLabourSupplyWeekly().equals(Labour.TWENTY) && getFemale().getDeh_c3().equals(Education.Medium)) ? 1. : 0.;
}
case FemaleEduH_2 -> {
return (getMale() != null && getFemale() != null && getFemale().getLabourSupplyWeekly().equals(Labour.TWENTY) && getFemale().getDeh_c3().equals(Education.High)) ? 1. : 0.;
}
case FemaleEduM_3 -> {
return (getMale() != null && getFemale() != null && getFemale().getLabourSupplyWeekly().equals(Labour.THIRTY) && getFemale().getDeh_c3().equals(Education.Medium)) ? 1. : 0.;
}
case FemaleEduH_3 -> {
return (getMale() != null && getFemale() != null && getFemale().getLabourSupplyWeekly().equals(Labour.THIRTY) && getFemale().getDeh_c3().equals(Education.High)) ? 1. : 0.;
}
case FemaleEduM_4 -> {
return (getMale() != null && getFemale() != null && getFemale().getLabourSupplyWeekly().equals(Labour.FORTY) && getFemale().getDeh_c3().equals(Education.Medium)) ? 1. : 0.;
}
case FemaleEduH_4 -> {
return (getMale() != null && getFemale() != null && getFemale().getLabourSupplyWeekly().equals(Labour.FORTY) && getFemale().getDeh_c3().equals(Education.High)) ? 1. : 0.;
}
case MaleLeisure_dnc02 -> {
return (Parameters.HOURS_IN_WEEK - getMale().getLabourSupplyHoursWeekly()) * getIndicatorChildren(0,1).ordinal();
}
Expand Down Expand Up @@ -3646,4 +3765,55 @@ public void removeMember(Person member) {
}

public static void setBenefitUnitIdCounter(long id) {benefitUnitIdCounter = id;}

/**
* Calculates the labour innovation value for the current period with persistence.
*
* This method implements a persistence mechanism for labour innovations where there's
* a probability that the previous period's innovation will persist into the current period.
* A new innovation is drawn each period, but it's only used with probability (1 - persistenceProbability).
*
* The persistence mechanism works as follows:
* 1. Draw a new potential innovation value
* 2. Draw a random number to determine if we should use the new value or persist with the old one
* 3. If it's the first period or there was a gap in years, use the new innovation
* 4. Otherwise, use the persistence probability to decide between new and old values
*
* @param persistenceProbability The probability (between 0 and 1) that the previous period's
* innovation will persist. A value of 0 means always use new innovations,
* while 1 means always keep the old innovation.
* @return The labour innovation value for this period
*/
private double getLabourInnovation(double persistenceProbability) {

double newLabourInnovation = innovations.getDoubleDraw(5);

// persistenceRandomDraw - random value to determine if we keep old innovation
double persistenceRandomDraw = innovations.getDoubleDraw(6);

int currentYear = model.getYear();

// Initialize on first call
if (lastLabourInnov == null || lastYear == null) {
lastLabourInnov = newLabourInnovation;
lastYear = currentYear;
return newLabourInnovation;
}

double labourInnov;
if (persistenceRandomDraw < persistenceProbability) {
labourInnov = lastLabourInnov;
} else {
labourInnov = newLabourInnovation;
}

// Store values for next period
lastLabourInnov = labourInnov;
lastYear = currentYear;

return labourInnov;



}
}
8 changes: 8 additions & 0 deletions src/main/java/simpaths/model/Innovations.java
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Expand Up @@ -28,6 +28,14 @@ public Innovations(int nDoubleInnovs, int nSingleDrawDoubleInnovs, int nSingleDr
}
}

public Innovations(int nDoubleInnovs, int nSingleDrawDoubleInnovs, long seed) {
this(nDoubleInnovs, seed);
singleDrawDoubleInnovs = new double[nSingleDrawDoubleInnovs];
for (int ii = 0; ii < nSingleDrawDoubleInnovs; ii++) {
singleDrawDoubleInnovs[ii] = generator.nextDouble();
}
}

public void getNewDoubleDraws() {
for (int ii = 0; ii < doubleInnovs.length; ii++) {
doubleInnovs[ii] = generator.nextDouble();
Expand Down
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