Part B: trust signals + screener power-features + resolution transparency

.github/workflows/leaderboard-stats.yml

@@ -0,0 +1,51 @@
+name: leaderboard-stats
+
+# Precomputes per-wallet win-rate + recent realized P&L for the leaderboard set
+# and commits ui/public/leaderboard-stats.json. Polymarket's public leaderboard
+# API only exposes all-time profit/volume per wallet; win-rate + sample size
+# need each wallet's /trades history — an ~80-wallet fan-out that doesn't belong
+# in a per-render client fetch, so it's batched here every 6h and served static.
+# The script skips the write (no commit, no redeploy) when stats are unchanged.
+
+on:
+  schedule:
+    - cron: "0 */6 * * *"
+  workflow_dispatch: {} # manual trigger from the Actions tab
+
+permissions:
+  contents: write
+
+concurrency:
+  group: leaderboard-stats
+  cancel-in-progress: false
+
+jobs:
+  build:
+    runs-on: ubuntu-latest
+    timeout-minutes: 15
+    steps:
+      - uses: actions/checkout@v5
+        with:
+          fetch-depth: 1
+
+      - uses: actions/setup-node@v4
+        with:
+          node-version: "20"
+
+      - name: Compute leaderboard stats
+        working-directory: ui
+        run: npx -y tsx@4 scripts/build-leaderboard-stats.ts
+
+      - name: Commit if changed
+        run: |
+          git config user.name "auspex-bot"
+          # GitHub-attributable noreply so Vercel accepts the auto-deploy this
+          # commit triggers (same as data-refresh.yml).
+          git config user.email "96061296+gorillachimps@users.noreply.github.com"
+          if git diff --quiet ui/public/leaderboard-stats.json; then
+            echo "No changes — exiting clean."
+            exit 0
+          fi
+          git add ui/public/leaderboard-stats.json
+          git commit -m "data: refresh leaderboard stats ($(date -u +%H:%MZ))"
+          git push

ui/app/api/holders/route.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,103 @@
+import { NextResponse } from "next/server";
+
+export const revalidate = 120;
+
+const GAMMA = "https://gamma-api.polymarket.com";
+const DATA = "https://data-api.polymarket.com";
+const COND_RE = /^0x[0-9a-fA-F]{64}$/;
+const SLUG_RE = /^[a-z0-9-]{1,120}$/i;
+const ADDR_RE = /^0x[0-9a-fA-F]{40}$/;
+const HOLDERS_LIMIT = 12;
+
+type Holder = { proxyWallet: string; name: string; amount: number };
+type Group = { token: string; outcomeIndex: number; holders: Holder[] };
+
+/**
+ * Server-side Top Holders resolver. The Polymarket /holders endpoint keys on a
+ * CTF conditionId, which our snapshot doesn't carry — so we resolve it from the
+ * market slug via gamma-api, then fetch holders from data-api. Composed server-
+ * side (one round-trip for the client, cacheable, no CORS hop).
+ *
+ * gamma-api occasionally returns unescaped control chars in description fields,
+ * which breaks JSON.parse — so we regex-extract the conditionId from the raw
+ * text rather than parsing the whole payload.
+ */
+async function resolveConditionId(slug: string): Promise<string | null> {
+  const r = await fetch(`${GAMMA}/markets?slug=${encodeURIComponent(slug)}`, {
+    cache: "no-store",
+  });
+  if (!r.ok) return null;
+  const text = await r.text();
+  const m = text.match(/"conditionId"\s*:\s*"(0x[0-9a-fA-F]{64})"/);
+  return m ? m[1] : null;
+}
+
+function cleanGroups(value: unknown): Group[] {
+  if (!Array.isArray(value)) return [];
+  const groups: Group[] = [];
+  for (const item of value) {
+    if (!item || typeof item !== "object") continue;
+    const rec = item as Record<string, unknown>;
+    const token = typeof rec.token === "string" ? rec.token : "";
+    const outcomeIndex =
+      typeof rec.outcomeIndex === "number" ? rec.outcomeIndex : 0;
+    const rawHolders = Array.isArray(rec.holders) ? rec.holders : [];
+    const holders: Holder[] = [];
+    for (const h of rawHolders) {
+      if (!h || typeof h !== "object") continue;
+      const hr = h as Record<string, unknown>;
+      const proxyWallet =
+        typeof hr.proxyWallet === "string" ? hr.proxyWallet : "";
+      if (!ADDR_RE.test(proxyWallet)) continue;
+      const amount =
+        typeof hr.amount === "number" ? hr.amount : Number(hr.amount);
+      if (!Number.isFinite(amount) || amount <= 0) continue;
+      const pseudonym = typeof hr.pseudonym === "string" ? hr.pseudonym : "";
+      const name = typeof hr.name === "string" ? hr.name : "";
+      holders.push({ proxyWallet, name: pseudonym || name || "", amount });
+    }
+    if (holders.length > 0) groups.push({ token, outcomeIndex, holders });
+  }
+  return groups;
+}
+
+export async function GET(request: Request) {
+  const url = new URL(request.url);
+  const slug = url.searchParams.get("slug");
+  const marketParam = url.searchParams.get("market");
+
+  let conditionId: string | null = null;
+  if (marketParam && COND_RE.test(marketParam)) {
+    conditionId = marketParam;
+  } else if (slug && SLUG_RE.test(slug)) {
+    conditionId = await resolveConditionId(slug);
+  } else {
+    return NextResponse.json(
+      { error: "expected ?slug=<market-slug> or ?market=<conditionId>" },
+      { status: 400 },
+    );
+  }
+
+  if (!conditionId) {
+    return NextResponse.json(
+      { conditionId: null, groups: [] },
+      { headers: { "Cache-Control": "public, s-maxage=120, stale-while-revalidate=300" } },
+    );
+  }
+
+  let groups: Group[] = [];
+  try {
+    const hr = await fetch(
+      `${DATA}/holders?market=${conditionId}&limit=${HOLDERS_LIMIT}`,
+      { cache: "no-store" },
+    );
+    if (hr.ok) groups = cleanGroups(JSON.parse(await hr.text()));
+  } catch {
+    // upstream hiccup → empty result; the client shows an empty state
+  }
+
+  return NextResponse.json(
+    { conditionId, groups },
+    { headers: { "Cache-Control": "public, s-maxage=120, stale-while-revalidate=300" } },
+  );
+}

ui/app/globals.css

@@ -8,7 +8,7 @@
   --border-strong: #2a3142;
   --foreground: #e6e8ee;
   --muted: #8a91a3;
-  --muted-2: #5d6478;
+  --muted-2: #7a8195;
   --accent: #a78bfa;
   --accent-strong: #8b5cf6;
   --positive: #34d399;

ui/app/markets/[slug]/page.tsx

@@ -17,6 +17,7 @@ import { TradeSizeDistribution } from "@/components/TradeSizeDistribution";
 import { ShareButtons } from "@/components/ShareButtons";
 import { TriggerAlertButton } from "@/components/TriggerAlertButton";
 import { DisqusComments } from "@/components/DisqusComments";
+import { TopHolders } from "@/components/TopHolders";
 import { cn } from "@/lib/cn";
 import { getMarketBySlug } from "@/lib/data";
 import {
@@ -223,13 +224,44 @@ export default async function MarketDetailPage({ params, searchParams }: Props)
             />
           </div>
 
-          <Card className="mt-6" title="Rule">
+          <div className="mt-6">
+            <TopHolders
+              slug={row.slug}
+              tokenYes={row.tokenYes ?? null}
+              tokenNo={row.tokenNo ?? null}
+            />
+          </div>
+
+          <Card className="mt-6" title="How this resolves">
             <p className="text-[13px] leading-relaxed text-foreground/90">
               {summarizeRules(row)}
               {row.liveState === "deferred" && row.liveReason ? (
                 <span className="ml-2 text-muted">({row.liveReason})</span>
               ) : null}
             </p>
+            <dl className="mt-3 grid grid-cols-2 gap-x-4 gap-y-2 sm:grid-cols-3">
+              <ResolveFact label="Settles by" value={fmtSourceLabel(row.source, row.pair)} />
+              <ResolveFact
+                label="Resolution deadline"
+                value={row.endDate ? new Date(row.endDate).toUTCString() : "—"}
+              />
+              <ResolveFact label="Oracle" value="UMA optimistic oracle" />
+            </dl>
+            <p className="mt-3 text-[12px] leading-relaxed text-muted">
+              Outcomes are finalized by Polymarket via UMA&apos;s optimistic
+              oracle: a proposed result can be challenged during a dispute window
+              before it settles. {resolutionStateNote(row)} Auspex doesn&apos;t
+              control resolution — confirm the live oracle status on{" "}
+              <a
+                href={`https://polymarket.com/event/${row.slug}`}
+                target="_blank"
+                rel="noopener noreferrer"
+                className="text-accent hover:underline"
+              >
+                Polymarket
+              </a>
+              .
+            </p>
           </Card>
 
           <div className="mt-6">
@@ -321,6 +353,24 @@ function Card({
   );
 }
 
+function ResolveFact({ label, value }: { label: string; value: string }) {
+  return (
+    <div className="flex flex-col">
+      <dt className="text-[10px] uppercase tracking-wider text-muted-2">{label}</dt>
+      <dd className="tabular text-[12px] text-foreground/90">{value}</dd>
+    </div>
+  );
+}
+
+/** Honest, data-derived resolution-state note. We surface the UMA *mechanism*
+ *  and the lifecycle phase inferred from the close date — we deliberately do
+ *  NOT invent a specific dispute status we can't verify on-chain here. */
+function resolutionStateNote(row: { endDate: string | null }): string {
+  return urgencyForEnd(row.endDate) === "ended"
+    ? "Trading has closed; it's now in the resolution / arbitration window."
+    : "It's still open for trading until the deadline above.";
+}
+
 /** Build the pre-filled text for share-to-X / Farcaster. Includes the market
  *  question and a short factoid line so a casual viewer can grasp the bet
  *  without clicking through. */

ui/app/wallets/[address]/page.tsx

@@ -11,12 +11,21 @@ import { WalletTradesView } from "@/components/WalletTradesView";
 import { WalletPnLChart } from "@/components/WalletPnLChart";
 import { useUserPositions } from "@/lib/useUserPositions";
 import { useWalletTrades } from "@/lib/useWalletTrades";
-import { computeWalletPnl } from "@/lib/walletPnl";
+import { computeWalletPnl, deriveTraderTags, type TraderTag } from "@/lib/walletPnl";
 import { shortAddress } from "@/lib/resolveWallet";
 import { cn } from "@/lib/cn";
 
 type Props = { params: Promise<{ address: string }> };
 
+const TAG_TONE: Record<TraderTag["tone"], string> = {
+  sharp: "bg-accent/15 text-accent ring-accent/40",
+  whale: "bg-fuchsia-500/15 text-fuchsia-200 ring-fuchsia-400/40",
+  good: "bg-emerald-500/15 text-emerald-200 ring-emerald-400/40",
+  active: "bg-sky-500/15 text-sky-200 ring-sky-400/40",
+  caution: "bg-amber-500/15 text-amber-200 ring-amber-400/40",
+  bad: "bg-rose-500/15 text-rose-200 ring-rose-400/40",
+};
+
 export default function WalletDetailPage({ params }: Props) {
   const { address } = use(params);
   const normalised = address.toLowerCase();
@@ -31,6 +40,11 @@ export default function WalletDetailPage({ params }: Props) {
     return computeWalletPnl(tradesState.trades, positionsState.positions);
   }, [tradesState.trades, positionsState.positions]);
 
+  const tags = useMemo(
+    () => (pnl && tradesState.trades ? deriveTraderTags(pnl, tradesState.trades) : []),
+    [pnl, tradesState.trades],
+  );
+
   const [copied, setCopied] = useState(false);
   useEffect(() => {
     if (!copied) return;
@@ -101,6 +115,26 @@ export default function WalletDetailPage({ params }: Props) {
             <FollowButton address={proxy} />
           </div>
 
+          {tags.length > 0 ? (
+            <div className="mt-3 flex flex-wrap items-center gap-1.5">
+              <span className="text-[10px] font-semibold uppercase tracking-wider text-muted-2">
+                Trader profile
+              </span>
+              {tags.map((t) => (
+                <span
+                  key={t.label}
+                  title={t.hint}
+                  className={cn(
+                    "inline-flex items-center rounded-full px-2 py-0.5 text-[11px] font-semibold ring-1",
+                    TAG_TONE[t.tone],
+                  )}
+                >
+                  {t.label}
+                </span>
+              ))}
+            </div>
+          ) : null}
+
           {/* P&L summary tiles */}
           <section className="mt-6 grid grid-cols-2 gap-3 sm:grid-cols-4">
             <Stat