Bitcoin Research

Analysis and exploration notebooks for Bitcoin on-chain data.

Data Source

This repo uses data from the bitcoin-lab-btc-data-pipeline — make sure it's cloned as a sibling directory:

/Documents/
├── bitcoin-lab-btc-data-pipeline/   # Data pipeline
│   └── data/raw/*.parquet
└── bitcoin-research/                 # This repo
    └── exploration.ipynb

Setup

cd bitcoin-research
python3 -m venv venv
source venv/bin/activate
pip install -r requirements.txt

Notebooks

Notebook	Description
exploration.ipynb	Initial data exploration, correlation analysis, predictive power

Key Findings

Correlation Insights

• MVRV_Z is the master signal (0.98 correlation with MVRV, 0.82 with NUPL)
• Most metrics flip direction between bull and bear markets
• Consistent signals (work in both regimes): liveliness, vaultedness

Predictive Power by Regime

Metric	Bull r	Bear r	Notes
mvrv_sth	+0.10	-0.38	Flips — strong bear predictor
mvrv_z	+0.07	-0.34	Flips
liveliness	-0.08	-0.19	Consistent — high activity = lower returns
vaultedness	+0.08	+0.19	Consistent — dormancy = higher returns

Best Signals by Regime

Bull markets:

• supply_lth_sth_ratio (r=-0.16) — top warning
• nvt (r=-0.15) — overvaluation warning

Bear markets:

• mvrv_sth (r=-0.38) — high = more downside
• mvrv_z (r=-0.34) — high = more downside
• liveliness (r=-0.19) — capitulation signal

Running Notebooks

source venv/bin/activate
jupyter notebook

Or in VS Code:

1. Open folder
2. Select venv as kernel
3. Run cells