docs: rewrite README, add LICENSE, prune internal docs#2
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Rewrite README to match the shipped system: - correct scoring math (log-loss clamp [0.01,0.99]; leaderboard P&L is a flat-$25 directional bet, distinct from the quarter-Kelly trading lab) - document the paper-trading proof lab, the /live page, and the ~20 /api/trading-* endpoints (the biggest doc gap) - fix the claude -p "$0 API cost" mechanism details (real flags, cache key, per-call budget, Task in disallowedTools, %TEMP% vs /tmp) - refresh the project-structure tree and schema (add paper_trading_snapshots, evidence_events; drop row counts that rot on every cron run) - honest positioning vs ForecastBench / Prophet Arena / Metaculus FutureEval / Halawi, and flag that ~0.02 Brier / ~97% win is backfill inflation, not superhuman skill (superforecasters land ~0.15-0.20) - fix author link (@deforestpeg pointed at the suspended /claygdev handle) Add MIT LICENSE (README already referenced it). Remove internal docs that don't belong in a public repo: HANDOFF.md, LAUNCH-X.md, PLAN.md (private local paths, launch-thread/DM drafts, account-suspension notes, stale build plan). Genericize scripts/VPS-SETUP.md: drop the personal local path and VPS IP, fix the dead crucible-ai.netlify.app domain.
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Jun 19, 2026
Echo is currently rank #1 (not #2) — the insight panel text was stale. Also wires rank_delta_24h arrows (↑/↓) to agent cards so rank movement is visible when standings shift ahead of Thursday launch. Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com> Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01QGt65pxBC4WKvuLUukSRhL
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Deep investigation + domain research pass on the repo, then a full documentation sync. The old README read accurately for the project as it stood weeks ago, but the codebase moved on and the numbers drifted by ~10x.
What changed
Removed internal docs (private paths / launch drafts / stale plan — git history keeps them):
HANDOFF.md,LAUNCH-X.md,PLAN.mdAdded
LICENSE(MIT) — the README already pointed at it but the file didn't exist.Genericized
scripts/VPS-SETUP.md— dropped a personal local filesystem path + the VPS IP, fixed the deadcrucible-ai.netlify.appdomain.Rewrote
README.mdto match what actually shipped:[0.01, 0.99](README said1e-4). The leaderboard P&L is a flat-$25 directional bet, not the Kelly formula that was shown — that belongs to the trading lab. Eivra Score formula confirmed; clarified ELO does not feed it./trading), the/livepage, and the ~20/api/trading-*endpoints — an entire shipped subsystem the old README omitted.claude -p"$0 API cost" details — real flags (--max-budget-usd 0.30,--max-turns 5,Taskin--disallowedTools), the actual cache key,%TEMP%vs/tmp, and the synthetic backfillcreated_at.paper_trading_snapshots,evidence_events; dropped per-table row counts that rot on every cron run).@deforestpegwas pointing at the suspended/claygdevhandle), removed the deadHANDOFF.mdlink and the references to the deleted files.How it was checked
A multi-agent verification pass queried the live Supabase prod DB for ground-truth counts and cross-checked every numeric/path/mechanism claim against the code; the corrections above come from that. Web research grounded the competitive landscape and the superforecaster Brier baselines.