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🔥 WILDFIRE RESPONSE GAP ANALYSIS

Last Updated 2026 Season Update NatGeo Map Update Fire Map GeoJSON


"It's already on the ground."

When a wildfire ignites in eastern Oregon, help isn't minutes away. It's hours. Sometimes it isn't coming at all — not from a mapped fire station. This project measures that gap across every wildfire perimeter on the West Coast, names the stations carrying the load, and tracks the 2026 season live.


Interactive Leaflet map. Fire perimeters updated every morning at 5am Pacific. Click any fire for distance to nearest station and estimated response time.


Oregon's Wildfire Response Gap — National Geographic Style


THE FINDING THAT SURPRISED ME

I calculated the distance from every wildfire perimeter to the nearest fire station across three West Coast states. California and Washington looked normal. Oregon didn't.

State Fires Median Distance % Fires >50km
Washington 1,388 8.6 km 1.9%
California 1,051 10.8 km 1.5%
Oregon 1,196 26.7 km 30.1%

I checked the data twice. The pattern held.

State Comparison


WHY OREGON IS DIFFERENT

Eastern Oregon is enormous, sparsely populated rangeland. The model that works in western Oregon, in California's populated corridors, in western Washington — it doesn't reach out there.

Malheur County alone is 9,930 square miles — larger than New Hampshire. Median fire-to-station distance: 139.1 km. Every single fire in the county is beyond 50km from any mapped station.

Oregon's answer: Rangeland Fire Protection Associations (RFPAs).

RFPAs are legally recognized volunteer networks — ranchers and landowners organized to protect over 17.5 million acres that have no existing state or local fire protection. This isn't informal mutual aid. It's codified in Oregon statute with defined authority and structure. Oregon is the only state in the country with this formal structure. No other western state has replicated it.

Oregon Coverage Map


FRENCHGLEN FIRE GUARD STATION

Frenchglen Coverage Zone

Frenchglen Fire Guard Station sits in Harney County — population approximately 12. It is the nearest mapped station to 148 wildfires covering 516,867 acres.

Metric Value
Fires as nearest station 148
Total acres in coverage zone 516,867
Mean distance to fires 106.9 km
Mean estimated response time 114 minutes
Largest fire Falls Fire — 151,683 ac (2024)

But Frenchglen isn't alone. It's one node in a network that includes the Frenchglen RFPA, BLM resources, and US Fish & Wildlife. The ranchers in these associations are often on scene hours before federal resources arrive — with fire-equipped trucks, slip-on water tanks, and generations of knowledge of this land.

The infrastructure gap is real. The people filling it are remarkable.


THE DISTANCE DISTRIBUTION

Distance Histogram

California and Washington fires cluster under 25km. Oregon has a long tail stretching past 200km — not as outliers, but as the norm for the eastern half of the state.


WEST COAST FULL PICTURE

West Coast Combined

Three states. 3,635 fire perimeters. One map. The contrast between Oregon's eastern half and everything else is visible at a glance.


🔥 2026 FIRE SEASON — LIVE YTD TRACKER

→ Open Interactive Map

Updated automatically every morning at 5am Pacific. Python fetches fresh perimeters from the NIFC WFIGS API, recomputes distances to the nearest fire station, and commits a GeoJSON to this repo. The R workflow runs at 6am and rebuilds the NatGeo-style PNG. No manual intervention required.

2026 YTD

How to read the map

Symbol Meaning
Red polygon Active fire perimeter
Green polygon Contained fire perimeter
▲ Triangle Fire station (OpenStreetMap)
Dashed line Fire more than 25km from nearest station
Fire label Top fires by acres — name, size, active status

What updates every morning

What Where
Fire perimeter shapes Main map
Fire count, active/contained split Header + sidebar
Total acres Header + subtitle
Median distance to nearest station Coverage panel
Fires beyond 50km + percentage Coverage panel + gap bar
Top 10 fire labels with acreage Map callouts
Connector lines to distant stations Dashed lines on map
Timestamp Caption bar + sidebar

Season stages

Stage Fire Count When What you'll see
Pre-season 0 Feb–May Stations only — ready and waiting
Early < 10 May–Jun First perimeters, gap lines emerging
Building 10–49 Jun–Jul Coverage picture taking shape
Peak 50+ Jul–Oct Full gap exposure — Oregon vs CA/WA contrast at maximum

What peak season will look like

By July and August, when Oregon's rangeland fires are running, the map will surface the same structural gaps documented in the historical analysis — Malheur and Harney counties with median distances exceeding 100km, Frenchglen Fire Guard Station as the nearest station to dozens of active fires, and the RFPA volunteer network as the primary response mechanism for millions of acres.


RUN LOCALLY

# Refresh the interactive map GeoJSON
python python/fetch_fires.py

# Rebuild the NatGeo static map (requires R + dependencies)
source("R/19_ytd_natgeo.R")

DATA & METHODS

Source Used for
NIFC WFIGS API Fire perimeters (historical + YTD)
OpenStreetMap Fire station locations
US Census TIGER County + state boundaries
  • Distances are straight-line (haversine), perimeter edge to nearest station
  • Acreage: best available of IncidentSize or GISAcres
  • Active = PercentContained is null or < 100

REPO STRUCTURE

wildfire-response-gaps/
├── index.html                    # Live interactive Leaflet map
├── python/
│   └── fetch_fires.py            # Fetches WFIGS → writes output/fires.geojson
├── R/
│   ├── 01_setup.R
│   ├── 07–13_west_coast_*.R      # Historical analysis pipeline
│   ├── 19_ytd_natgeo.R           # NatGeo-style YTD map builder
│   └── update_ytd_ci.R           # GitHub Actions entrypoint for R
├── output/
│   ├── fires.geojson             # Live data for the web map (auto-updated)
│   └── figures/                  # Static PNG outputs
└── .github/workflows/
    ├── update_fire_map.yml        # Python: runs 5am Pacific daily
    └── update_ytd_map.yml         # R: runs 6am Pacific daily

Built by B. Groves · Open source · MIT License

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GIS analysis of wildfire response coverage gaps in WUI zones — fire station coverage, road network access, and response time modeling.

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