C9.2 — Monte-Carlo & finite-range checks for weighted Collatz (1,1) parity probabilities#18
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Agent-Logs-Url: https://github.com/TOTOGT/DM3-lab/sessions/8b7a2607-d1dc-40de-8bad-cfdcef172ed3 Co-authored-by: TOTOGT <266586635+TOTOGT@users.noreply.github.com>
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[WIP] Add scripts for Monte-Carlo and finite-range checks of probabilities
C9.2 — Monte-Carlo & finite-range checks for weighted Collatz (1,1) parity probabilities
Apr 3, 2026
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Apr 3, 2026
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Replaces the non-functional stub in
scripts/collatz_c9_2_sampling.pywith a complete weighted Monte-Carlo pipeline that measures the decorrelation of Collatz parity orbits under the contact-form weightw(n) = 1/log(n).Core sampling (
collatz_c9_2_sampling.py)n ≥ 33uniformly from a configurable window[start, end]w(n) = 1/log(n)to each drawnodd andT(n) = (3n+1)//2odd — equivalent ton ≡ 3 (mod 4);p11is the weighted mean of this indicatorb_0…b_{depth-1}per draw, with correct 1-cycle continuation (1→4→2→1→ parity1,0,0,…)M/100drawspython scripts/collatz_c9_2_sampling.py \ --start 33 --end 1000000 --M 1000000 --depth 20 --seed 42 \ --output scripts/out # p11 (weighted) = 0.498429 | deviation = -0.001571Plot generation (
collatz_c9_2_plots.py)p11vs. sample count with0.5referenceCor(b₂, b₂₊lag)bars with±1.96/√MCI bandP(b_k = 1)per orbit positionDocumentation (
C9_2_README.md)Covers mathematical background (half-step map, "11 event", weight definition), reproduction steps, and interpretation of each plot including limitations (finite-window bias, numerical evidence only).
Committed outputs (
scripts/out/)JSON summaries and PNG plots for
M=10⁵andM=10⁶windows. Large CSVs excluded via.gitignore.Results:
p11 ≈ 0.498, ACF decays into the 95% CI band by lag ~8 — consistent with the decorrelation hypothesis.