PolicyEngine · MaxGhenis · Jun 18, 2026 · Jun 18, 2026
diff --git a/changelog.d/populace-996401a.changed b/changelog.d/populace-996401a.changed
@@ -0,0 +1 @@
+Update the certified US Populace dataset to the incumbent-improved 2024 release.
diff --git a/src/policyengine/data/release_manifests/us.json b/src/policyengine/data/release_manifests/us.json
@@ -5,63 +5,63 @@
     "certified_by": "populace-data release manifest",
     "certified_for_model_version": "1.729.0",
     "compatibility_basis": "exact_build_model_version",
-    "data_build_id": "populace-us-2024-a912aea-76666318a202-20260616T175345Z"
+    "data_build_id": "populace-us-2024-incumbent-improved-996401a-20260618"
   },
   "certified_data_artifact": {
-    "build_id": "populace-us-2024-a912aea-76666318a202-20260616T175345Z",
+    "build_id": "populace-us-2024-incumbent-improved-996401a-20260618",
     "data_package": {
       "name": "populace-data",
       "version": "0.1.0"
     },
     "dataset": "populace_us_2024",
-    "sha256": "9d87c7ff370be524e73aaf68d151b00846eefcae4b00a63760102e2c6f285f92",
-    "uri": "hf://policyengine/populace-us/populace_us_2024.h5@populace-us-2024-a912aea-76666318a202-20260616T175345Z"
+    "sha256": "068c1d5fb9d731c425c5021f1eb67783d957bafd0618ec7584edd32c66dce7d4",
+    "uri": "hf://policyengine/populace-us/populace_us_2024.h5@c5a9f565aed7eb15e04dbabe0aff563b3b9a3a36"
   },
   "country_id": "us",
   "data_package": {
     "name": "populace-data",
-    "release_manifest_path": "releases/populace-us-2024-a912aea-76666318a202-20260616T175345Z/release_manifest.json",
-    "release_manifest_revision": "c4e2fd454ddce0e1889ab77abff178a7bdd72b18",
+    "release_manifest_path": "releases/populace-us-2024-incumbent-improved-996401a-20260618/release_manifest.json",
+    "release_manifest_revision": "c5a9f565aed7eb15e04dbabe0aff563b3b9a3a36",
     "repo_id": "policyengine/populace-us",
     "repo_type": "dataset",
     "version": "0.1.0"
   },
   "datasets": {
     "calibration_diagnostics": {
-      "path": "releases/populace-us-2024-a912aea-76666318a202-20260616T175345Z/calibration_diagnostics.json",
+      "path": "releases/populace-us-2024-incumbent-improved-996401a-20260618/calibration_diagnostics.json",
       "repo_id": "policyengine/populace-us",
-      "revision": "populace-us-2024-a912aea-76666318a202-20260616T175345Z",
-      "sha256": "154a1b217211d92c50e0fb84750888920cf8a63afcf9437efa85e484a7d501c9"
+      "revision": "populace-us-2024-incumbent-improved-996401a-20260618",
+      "sha256": "554babf39002ec708bff31d98709fdc38b88cbcc7055f69cd37ddecdd1c46b87"
     },
     "populace_us_2024": {
       "path": "populace_us_2024.h5",
       "repo_id": "policyengine/populace-us",
-      "revision": "populace-us-2024-a912aea-76666318a202-20260616T175345Z",
-      "sha256": "9d87c7ff370be524e73aaf68d151b00846eefcae4b00a63760102e2c6f285f92"
+      "revision": "populace-us-2024-incumbent-improved-996401a-20260618",
+      "sha256": "068c1d5fb9d731c425c5021f1eb67783d957bafd0618ec7584edd32c66dce7d4"
     },
     "populace_us_2024_calibration": {
       "path": "populace_us_2024_calibration.npz",
       "repo_id": "policyengine/populace-us",
-      "revision": "populace-us-2024-a912aea-76666318a202-20260616T175345Z",
-      "sha256": "0679dd35dbb198164beee6d56626af2b2fb57d6a3b6ea6511daf908e66296175"
+      "revision": "populace-us-2024-incumbent-improved-996401a-20260618",
+      "sha256": "9ff5a0084defc9ee583742fbe0778fd1bdf610d952d329df2963552c1bfb7e6a"
     },
     "us_source_coverage": {
-      "path": "releases/populace-us-2024-a912aea-76666318a202-20260616T175345Z/us_source_coverage.json",
+      "path": "releases/populace-us-2024-incumbent-improved-996401a-20260618/us_source_coverage.json",
       "repo_id": "policyengine/populace-us",
-      "revision": "populace-us-2024-a912aea-76666318a202-20260616T175345Z",
-      "sha256": "233a87ccc1c1eb8ed95321b7ebe586cd483e4e5af37686e182803f3b88edc76d"
+      "revision": "populace-us-2024-incumbent-improved-996401a-20260618",
+      "sha256": "3c47a65b295fe2e5d8504384c12d682c5b54a3ff48a9e1ac617d6c2adda24795"
     },
     "reform_validation": {
-      "path": "releases/populace-us-2024-a912aea-76666318a202-20260616T175345Z/reform_validation.json",
-      "revision": "populace-us-2024-a912aea-76666318a202-20260616T175345Z",
+      "path": "releases/populace-us-2024-incumbent-improved-996401a-20260618/reform_validation.json",
+      "revision": "populace-us-2024-incumbent-improved-996401a-20260618",
       "repo_id": "policyengine/populace-us",
-      "sha256": "266851a23595eb832fdc3a88453fd60dfc12cd258e557b4ae7fd92b19eeb4f9e"
+      "sha256": "bb3a8ecca861c23299af1af027502afa49a65152a4e44c1e1d93cc9ea5c1688b"
     },
     "demographics": {
-      "path": "releases/populace-us-2024-a912aea-76666318a202-20260616T175345Z/demographics.json",
-      "revision": "populace-us-2024-a912aea-76666318a202-20260616T175345Z",
+      "path": "releases/populace-us-2024-incumbent-improved-996401a-20260618/demographics.json",
+      "revision": "populace-us-2024-incumbent-improved-996401a-20260618",
       "repo_id": "policyengine/populace-us",
-      "sha256": "073b9edf5a0594ab9e24c8aaae2a981a09ae510869a3f6c6cec3bb5500914897"
+      "sha256": "831ca1261e7c8ad7a96e477960a1482cecb79123a3714f0d144a3f1256275b8f"
     }
   },
   "default_dataset": "populace_us_2024",

diff --git a/src/policyengine/data/release_manifests/us.trace.tro.jsonld b/src/policyengine/data/release_manifests/us.trace.tro.jsonld
@@ -17,7 +17,7 @@
         "schema:name": "PolicyEngine",
         "schema:url": "https://policyengine.org"
       },
-      "schema:dateCreated": "2026-06-16T18:48:19.511357+00:00",
+      "schema:dateCreated": "2026-06-18T14:48:31.853398+00:00",
       "schema:description": "TRACE TRO for certified runtime bundle us-4.17.7 covering the bundle manifest, the certified dataset artifact, the country model wheel, and the country data release manifest when it is available.",
       "schema:name": "policyengine us certified bundle TRO",
       "trov:createdWith": {
@@ -45,15 +45,15 @@
               "trov:hasArtifact": {
                 "@id": "composition/1/artifact/data_release_manifest"
               },
-              "trov:hasLocation": "https://huggingface.co/datasets/policyengine/populace-us/resolve/c4e2fd454ddce0e1889ab77abff178a7bdd72b18/releases/populace-us-2024-a912aea-76666318a202-20260616T175345Z/release_manifest.json"
+              "trov:hasLocation": "https://huggingface.co/datasets/policyengine/populace-us/resolve/c5a9f565aed7eb15e04dbabe0aff563b3b9a3a36/releases/populace-us-2024-incumbent-improved-996401a-20260618/release_manifest.json"
             },
             {
               "@id": "arrangement/1/location/dataset",
               "@type": "trov:ArtifactLocation",
               "trov:hasArtifact": {
                 "@id": "composition/1/artifact/dataset"
               },
-              "trov:hasLocation": "https://huggingface.co/datasets/policyengine/populace-us/resolve/populace-us-2024-a912aea-76666318a202-20260616T175345Z/populace_us_2024.h5"
+              "trov:hasLocation": "https://huggingface.co/datasets/policyengine/populace-us/resolve/c5a9f565aed7eb15e04dbabe0aff563b3b9a3a36/populace_us_2024.h5"
             },
             {
               "@id": "arrangement/1/location/model_wheel",
@@ -75,21 +75,21 @@
             "@type": "trov:ResearchArtifact",
             "schema:name": "policyengine.py bundle manifest for us",
             "trov:mimeType": "application/json",
-            "trov:sha256": "22d8245a4a53e4e1c2deb4cd5a54b098545e7c298dae8777283d0c2a449b0bc5"
+            "trov:sha256": "72ba4c9a09ccc9d90e0581701bcd8900e023a8b96d66f804c0c9ced0fb51986c"
           },
           {
             "@id": "composition/1/artifact/data_release_manifest",
             "@type": "trov:ResearchArtifact",
             "schema:name": "populace-data release manifest 0.1.0",
             "trov:mimeType": "application/json",
-            "trov:sha256": "b50925148419218dec45800baa1c3c683b966a622a8cb281e49410b65c92d099"
+            "trov:sha256": "f95ecd0b08a0b457605bb30abaf56b900a735f2c5606c9b663f79019411e9f6a"
           },
           {
             "@id": "composition/1/artifact/dataset",
             "@type": "trov:ResearchArtifact",
             "schema:name": "populace_us_2024",
             "trov:mimeType": "application/x-hdf5",
-            "trov:sha256": "9d87c7ff370be524e73aaf68d151b00846eefcae4b00a63760102e2c6f285f92"
+            "trov:sha256": "068c1d5fb9d731c425c5021f1eb67783d957bafd0618ec7584edd32c66dce7d4"
           },
           {
             "@id": "composition/1/artifact/model_wheel",
@@ -102,7 +102,7 @@
         "trov:hasFingerprint": {
           "@id": "composition/1/fingerprint",
           "@type": "trov:CompositionFingerprint",
-          "trov:sha256": "f6fc1f6b54ae50ec474a6d6764b61140674a2070d4f3ccb0eb8e22af62c19936"
+          "trov:sha256": "39b143c9874a45cd5f2a165a6fc1e6292597d5916497729007abcb17ff54e4dc"
         }
       },
       "trov:hasPerformance": {
@@ -111,17 +111,14 @@
         "pe:builtWithModelVersion": "1.729.0",
         "pe:certifiedBy": "populace-data release manifest",
         "pe:certifiedForModelVersion": "1.729.0",
-        "pe:ciGitRef": "refs/heads/main",
-        "pe:ciGitSha": "25d4a3d5e99dc1c415d077da9c0728bfebb16f16",
-        "pe:ciRunUrl": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine.py/actions/runs/27683656210",
         "pe:compatibilityBasis": "exact_build_model_version",
-        "pe:dataBuildId": "populace-us-2024-a912aea-76666318a202-20260616T175345Z",
-        "pe:emittedIn": "github-actions",
-        "rdfs:comment": "Certification of build populace-us-2024-a912aea-76666318a202-20260616T175345Z for policyengine-us 1.729.0.",
+        "pe:dataBuildId": "populace-us-2024-incumbent-improved-996401a-20260618",
+        "pe:emittedIn": "local",
+        "rdfs:comment": "Certification of build populace-us-2024-incumbent-improved-996401a-20260618 for policyengine-us 1.729.0.",
         "trov:accessedArrangement": {
           "@id": "arrangement/1"
         },
-        "trov:startedAtTime": "2026-06-16T18:48:19.511357+00:00",
+        "trov:startedAtTime": "2026-06-18T14:48:31.853398+00:00",
         "trov:wasConductedBy": {
           "@id": "trs"
         }

diff --git a/src/policyengine/provenance/manifest.py b/src/policyengine/provenance/manifest.py
@@ -173,6 +173,8 @@ class CountryReleaseManifest(BaseModel):
     region_datasets: dict[str, ArtifactPathTemplate] = Field(default_factory=dict)
     certified_data_artifact: Optional[CertifiedDataArtifact] = None
     certification: Optional[DataCertification] = None
+    source_sha256: Optional[str] = Field(default=None, exclude=True)
+    """Byte sha256 of the bundled manifest before Pydantic normalization."""
 
     @property
     def default_dataset_uri(self) -> str:
@@ -256,7 +258,10 @@ def get_release_manifest(country_id: str) -> CountryReleaseManifest:
     if not manifest_path.is_file():
         raise ValueError(f"No bundled release manifest for country '{country_id}'")
 
-    return CountryReleaseManifest.model_validate_json(manifest_path.read_text())
+    source_bytes = manifest_path.read_bytes()
+    manifest = CountryReleaseManifest.model_validate_json(source_bytes)
+    manifest.source_sha256 = hashlib.sha256(source_bytes).hexdigest()
+    return manifest
 
 
 @lru_cache

diff --git a/src/policyengine/provenance/trace.py b/src/policyengine/provenance/trace.py
@@ -361,9 +361,12 @@ def build_trace_tro_from_release_bundle(
         repo_type=country_manifest.data_package.repo_type,
     )
 
-    bundle_manifest_hash = hashlib.sha256(
-        canonical_json_bytes(country_manifest.model_dump(mode="json"))
-    ).hexdigest()
+    bundle_manifest_hash = (
+        country_manifest.source_sha256
+        or hashlib.sha256(
+            canonical_json_bytes(country_manifest.model_dump(mode="json"))
+        ).hexdigest()
+    )
     data_release_manifest_hash = (
         data_release_manifest.source_sha256
         or hashlib.sha256(

diff --git a/tests/test_certify_data_release.py b/tests/test_certify_data_release.py
@@ -365,18 +365,13 @@ def test__given_unreachable_vendored_artifact__then_raises(self, tmp_path):
 class TestVendoredSidecarBinding:
     def test__given_vendored_us_manifest__then_tro_sidecar_binds_it(self):
         """The shipped TRO must bind the shipped country manifest under the
-        canonical-model convention used by build_trace_tro_from_release_bundle."""
+        same byte-hash convention used by trace-tro-verify."""
         import hashlib
         from importlib.resources import files
 
-        from policyengine.provenance.manifest import CountryReleaseManifest
-        from policyengine.provenance.trace import canonical_json_bytes
-
         manifest_dir = files("policyengine").joinpath("data/release_manifests")
-        manifest_text = manifest_dir.joinpath("us.json").read_text()
-        country_manifest = CountryReleaseManifest.model_validate_json(manifest_text)
         expected = hashlib.sha256(
-            canonical_json_bytes(country_manifest.model_dump(mode="json"))
+            manifest_dir.joinpath("us.json").read_bytes()
         ).hexdigest()
 
         tro = json.loads(manifest_dir.joinpath("us.trace.tro.jsonld").read_text())

diff --git a/tests/test_models.py b/tests/test_models.py
@@ -119,7 +119,7 @@ def test_has_release_manifest_metadata(self):
         assert (
             us_latest.default_dataset_uri
             == "hf://policyengine/populace-us/populace_us_2024.h5"
-            "@populace-us-2024-a912aea-76666318a202-20260616T175345Z"
+            "@c5a9f565aed7eb15e04dbabe0aff563b3b9a3a36"
         )
 
     def test_has_hundreds_of_parameters(self):

diff --git a/tests/test_release_manifests.py b/tests/test_release_manifests.py
@@ -44,16 +44,16 @@
 US_MODEL_VERSION = "1.729.0"
 US_BUILT_WITH_MODEL_VERSION = "1.729.0"
 US_DATA_RELEASE_VERSION = "0.1.0"
-US_DATA_RELEASE_ID = "populace-us-2024-a912aea-76666318a202-20260616T175345Z"
-US_DATA_RELEASE_REVISION = "c4e2fd454ddce0e1889ab77abff178a7bdd72b18"
+US_DATA_RELEASE_ID = "populace-us-2024-incumbent-improved-996401a-20260618"
+US_DATA_RELEASE_REVISION = "c5a9f565aed7eb15e04dbabe0aff563b3b9a3a36"
 US_DATA_RELEASE_PATH = f"releases/{US_DATA_RELEASE_ID}/release_manifest.json"
 US_DATA_ARTIFACT_REVISION = US_DATA_RELEASE_ID
 US_CERTIFICATION_SOURCE = "populace-data release manifest"
 US_MANAGED_DATASET_URI = (
     f"hf://policyengine/populace-us/populace_us_2024.h5@{US_DATA_ARTIFACT_REVISION}"
 )
 US_CERTIFIED_DATASET_URI = (
-    f"hf://policyengine/populace-us/populace_us_2024.h5@{US_DATA_ARTIFACT_REVISION}"
+    f"hf://policyengine/populace-us/populace_us_2024.h5@{US_DATA_RELEASE_REVISION}"
 )
 US_RELEASE_MANIFEST_DATASET_URI = (
     f"hf://policyengine/populace-us/populace_us_2024.h5@{US_DATA_RELEASE_REVISION}"
Original file line number	Diff line number	Diff line change
		@@ -0,0 +1 @@
		Update the certified US Populace dataset to the incumbent-improved 2024 release.