Activate calibrated credit claiming behavior

Makefile

@@ -13,7 +13,7 @@ help:
 	@echo "clean      : remove .pyc files and local taxcalc package"
 	@echo "package    : build and install local package"
 	@echo "pytest     : generate report for and cleanup after"
-	@echo "             pytest -m 'not requires_puf and not requires_tmd'"
+	@echo "             pytest -m 'not reforms2 and not requires_puf and not requires_tmd'"
 	@echo "pytest-all : generate report for and cleanup after"
 	@echo "             pytest -m ''"
 	@echo "tctest     : generate report for and cleanup after"
@@ -53,7 +53,7 @@ endef
 .PHONY=pytest
 pytest: clean
 	@$(pytest-setup)
-	@cd taxcalc ; pytest -n4 --durations=0 --durations-min=8 -m "not requires_puf and not requires_tmd"
+	@cd taxcalc ; pytest -n4 --durations=0 --durations-min=8 -m "not reforms2 and not requires_puf and not requires_tmd"
 	@$(pytest-cleanup)
 
 .PHONY=pytest

pytest.ini

@@ -8,7 +8,8 @@ markers =
     benefits
     itmded_vars
     qbid
-    reforms
+    reforms1
+    reforms2
     rtr
     stded
     calc_and_used_vars

taxcalc/calcfunctions.py

@@ -3005,7 +3005,8 @@ def EITCamount(basic_frac, phasein_rate, earnings, max_amount,
 
 
 @iterate_jit(nopython=True)
-def EITC(eitc_claim_thd, MARS, DSI, c00100, e00300, e00400, e00600, c01000,
+def EITC(eitc_claim_thd, eitc_claim_prob_scale, credit_claim_urn,
+         MARS, DSI, c00100, e00300, e00400, e00600, c01000,
          e02000, e26270, age_head, age_spouse, earned, earned_p, earned_s, EIC,
          EITC_ps, EITC_MinEligAge, EITC_MaxEligAge, EITC_ps_addon_MarriedJ,
          EITC_rt, EITC_c, EITC_prt, EITC_basic_frac,
@@ -3049,9 +3050,8 @@ def EITC(eitc_claim_thd, MARS, DSI, c00100, e00300, e00400, e00600, c01000,
           `EITC_InvestIncome_c` ($11,950 for 2025) is modeled as a
           smooth phaseout at `EITC_excess_InvestIncome_rt` (default
           9e+99 → behaviorally identical to the cliff).
-      (E) Model-specific claiming approximation: filers with expected
-          credit below `eitc_claim_thd` (default 0) are assumed not to
-          claim.  No form analogue.
+      (E) Model-specific claiming approximation: see details below.
+          No form analogue.
 
     Downstream: `c59660` is the records-bound EITC amount consumed by
     `IITAX` (Form 1040 line 27a, refundable credit) and reported in
@@ -3062,6 +3062,10 @@ def EITC(eitc_claim_thd, MARS, DSI, c00100, e00300, e00400, e00600, c01000,
     eitc_claim_thd: float
         Model-specific behavioral parameter: EITC amount below which
         the credit is assumed unclaimed (no form analogue)
+    eitc_claim_prob_scale: float
+        See Section E logic and comments (no form analogue)
+    credit_claim_urn: float
+        See Section E logic and comments (no form analogue)
     MARS: int
         Filing (marital) status (1=single, 2=joint, 3=separate,
                                  4=household-head, 5=widow(er))
@@ -3204,11 +3208,23 @@ def EITC(eitc_claim_thd, MARS, DSI, c00100, e00300, e00400, e00600, c01000,
             red = EITC_excess_InvestIncome_rt * (invinc - EITC_InvestIncome_c)
             c59660 = max(0., c59660 - red)
 
-    # ---------------- (E) Behavioral claiming approximation ----------
-    # Not on the form: filers with expected credit < eitc_claim_thd
-    # are assumed not to claim (default 0 = no suppression).
-    if c59660 < eitc_claim_thd:
-        c59660 = 0.
+    # ---------------- (E) Credit claiming logic ----
+    if c59660 > 0.:
+        #
+        # Notice that `eitc_claim_prob_scale` and `eitc_claim_thd` can be used
+        # together to specify non-linear claiming probability schedules.
+        #
+        # Not on the form: credit claiming logic that uses claiming probability
+        # (eitc_claim_prob_scale=9e99 implies always claim credit)
+        prob = eitc_claim_prob_scale * c59660 / max_amount
+        if credit_claim_urn >= prob:
+            c59660 = 0.
+        #
+        # Not on the form: filers with credit amount less than eitc_claim_thd
+        # are assumed not to claim
+        # (default eitc_claim_thd=0 implies always claim credit)
+        if c59660 < eitc_claim_thd:
+            c59660 = 0.
 
     return c59660
 
@@ -4243,8 +4259,8 @@ def NonrefundableCredits(c05800, e07240, e07260, e07300, e07400,
 
 
 @iterate_jit(nopython=True)
-def AdditionalCTC(actc_claim_thd, codtc_limited,
-                  ACTC_c, n24, earned, ACTC_Income_thd,
+def AdditionalCTC(actc_claim_thd, actc_claim_prob_scale, credit_claim_urn,
+                  codtc_limited, ACTC_c, n24, earned, ACTC_Income_thd,
                   ACTC_rt, nu06, ACTC_rt_bonus_under6family, ACTC_ChildNum,
                   CTC_is_refundable, CTC_include17, CTC_c,
                   age_head, age_spouse, MARS, nu18,
@@ -4257,7 +4273,12 @@ def AdditionalCTC(actc_claim_thd, codtc_limited,
     Parameters
     ----------
     actc_claim_thd: float
-        ACTC amount below which ACTC is unclaimed
+        Model-specific behavioral parameter: ACTC amount below which
+        the credit is assumed unclaimed (no form analogue)
+    actc_claim_prob_scale: float
+        See logic and comments at bottom of function (no form analogue)
+    credit_claim_urn: float
+        See logic and comments at bottom of function (no form analogue)
     codtc_limited: float
         Sch 8812 line 16a: Part I tentative credit minus the nonrefundable
         portion absorbed (line 12 minus line 14); set in ChildDepTaxCredit
@@ -4298,6 +4319,7 @@ def AdditionalCTC(actc_claim_thd, codtc_limited,
     c11070: float
         Child tax credit (refunded) from Form 8812
     """
+    # pylint: disable=too-many-branches
     # Sch 8812 line 16a: leftover Part I tentative credit
     line16a = codtc_limited
     # Sch 8812 line 16b: max refundable amount = ACTC_c per qualifying child
@@ -4351,8 +4373,23 @@ def AdditionalCTC(actc_claim_thd, codtc_limited,
                 c11070 = min(line17, line27)
 
     # approximate ACTC claiming behavior
-    if c11070 < actc_claim_thd:
-        c11070 = 0.
+    if c11070 > 0.:
+        #
+        # Notice that `actc_claim_prob_scale` and `actc_claim_thd` can be used
+        # together to specify non-linear claiming probability schedules.
+        #
+        # Not on the form: credit claiming logic that uses claiming probability
+        # (actc_claim_prob_scale=9e99 implies always claim credit)
+        max_amount = line17
+        prob = actc_claim_prob_scale * c11070 / max_amount
+        if credit_claim_urn >= prob:
+            c11070 = 0.
+        #
+        # Not on the form: filers with credit amount less than actc_claim_thd
+        # are assumed not to claim
+        # (default actc_claim_thd=0 implies always claim credit)
+        if c11070 < actc_claim_thd:
+            c11070 = 0.
 
     return c11070
 

taxcalc/cli/behavioral_responses_tests/run11-35.tables-expect

@@ -1,17 +1,17 @@
 Weighted Tax Reform Totals by Baseline Expanded-Income Decile for 2035
     Returns    ExpInc    IncTax    PayTax     LSTax    AllTax
        (#m)      ($b)      ($b)      ($b)      ($b)      ($b)
- 0    24.21      64.9      -1.5       5.1       0.0       3.6
- 1    24.21     581.7     -13.9      47.6       0.0      33.7
- 2    24.21    1073.1      -5.8      69.6       0.0      63.9
- 3    24.21    1434.8       5.2      87.0       0.0      92.2
- 4    24.21    1811.4      23.6     124.8       0.0     148.3
- 5    24.21    2290.5      50.7     170.5       0.0     221.2
- 6    24.21    2931.2     100.1     224.8       0.0     324.9
- 7    24.21    3848.0     191.1     312.7       0.0     503.8
- 8    24.21    5356.4     411.2     495.0       0.0     906.2
- 9    24.21   12395.0    2291.3     969.5       0.0    3260.8
- A   242.13   31787.0    3052.0    2506.6       0.0    5558.6
+ 0    24.21      64.9      -0.8       5.1       0.0       4.3
+ 1    24.21     581.7     -11.4      47.6       0.0      36.1
+ 2    24.21    1073.1      -3.3      69.6       0.0      66.4
+ 3    24.21    1434.8       9.3      87.0       0.0      96.3
+ 4    24.21    1811.4      27.7     124.8       0.0     152.5
+ 5    24.21    2290.5      54.4     170.5       0.0     224.9
+ 6    24.21    2931.2     103.6     224.8       0.0     328.4
+ 7    24.21    3848.0     193.4     312.7       0.0     506.1
+ 8    24.21    5356.4     412.0     495.0       0.0     907.0
+ 9    24.21   12395.0    2291.4     969.5       0.0    3260.8
+ A   242.13   31787.0    3076.4    2506.6       0.0    5583.0
 
 Weighted Tax Differences by Baseline Expanded-Income Decile for 2035
     Returns    ExpInc    IncTax    PayTax     LSTax    AllTax

taxcalc/cli/behavioral_responses_tests/run30-35.tables-expect

@@ -1,17 +1,17 @@
 Weighted Tax Reform Totals by Baseline Expanded-Income Decile for 2035
     Returns    ExpInc    IncTax    PayTax     LSTax    AllTax
        (#m)      ($b)      ($b)      ($b)      ($b)      ($b)
- 0    24.21      64.9      -1.5       5.1       0.0       3.6
- 1    24.21     581.7     -13.9      47.6       0.0      33.7
- 2    24.21    1073.1      -5.8      69.7       0.0      63.9
- 3    24.21    1434.8       5.3      87.0       0.0      92.3
- 4    24.21    1811.4      23.6     124.8       0.0     148.4
- 5    24.21    2290.5      50.9     170.6       0.0     221.5
- 6    24.21    2931.2     100.3     224.9       0.0     325.2
- 7    24.21    3848.0     191.5     313.0       0.0     504.5
- 8    24.21    5356.4     411.7     495.4       0.0     907.0
- 9    24.21   12395.0    2260.9     966.2       0.0    3227.1
- A   242.13   31787.0    3023.1    2504.3       0.0    5527.3
+ 0    24.21      64.9      -0.8       5.1       0.0       4.3
+ 1    24.21     581.7     -11.4      47.6       0.0      36.1
+ 2    24.21    1073.1      -3.2      69.7       0.0      66.4
+ 3    24.21    1434.8       9.4      87.0       0.0      96.4
+ 4    24.21    1811.4      27.8     124.8       0.0     152.6
+ 5    24.21    2290.5      54.6     170.6       0.0     225.2
+ 6    24.21    2931.2     103.9     224.9       0.0     328.8
+ 7    24.21    3848.0     193.8     313.0       0.0     506.8
+ 8    24.21    5356.4     412.5     495.4       0.0     907.8
+ 9    24.21   12395.0    2261.0     966.2       0.0    3227.2
+ A   242.13   31787.0    3047.4    2504.3       0.0    5551.7
 
 Weighted Tax Differences by Baseline Expanded-Income Decile for 2035
     Returns    ExpInc    IncTax    PayTax     LSTax    AllTax
@@ -21,7 +21,7 @@ Weighted Tax Differences by Baseline Expanded-Income Decile for 2035
  2    24.21    1073.1      -1.3       0.0       0.0      -1.3
  3    24.21    1434.8      -1.7       0.0       0.0      -1.7
  4    24.21    1811.4      -2.6       0.0       0.0      -2.6
- 5    24.21    2290.5      -4.1       0.2       0.0      -3.9
+ 5    24.21    2290.5      -4.1       0.1       0.0      -3.9
  6    24.21    2931.2      -5.5       0.1       0.0      -5.4
  7    24.21    3848.0      -7.3       0.3       0.0      -7.0
  8    24.21    5356.4     -12.8       0.3       0.0     -12.5

taxcalc/cli/behavioral_responses_tests/tests.sh

@@ -1,5 +1,6 @@
 #!/bin/zsh
-# CLI tests of behavior responses logic
+# CLI tests of behavior responses logic using CPS input data.
+# These tests assume calibrated (less than full) claiming of credits.
 
 ERRORS=0
 

taxcalc/cli/input_data_tests/cps-25-params.baseline

@@ -1,5 +1,7 @@
 2025 parameter_indexing_CPI_offset 0.0
+2025 eitc_claim_prob_scale 1.04
 2025 eitc_claim_thd 0.0
+2025 actc_claim_prob_scale 1.1
 2025 actc_claim_thd 0.0
 2025 FICA_ss_trt_employer 0.062
 2025 FICA_ss_trt_employee 0.062

taxcalc/cli/input_data_tests/cps-25-params.reform

@@ -1,5 +1,7 @@
 2025 parameter_indexing_CPI_offset 0.0
+2025 eitc_claim_prob_scale 1.04
 2025 eitc_claim_thd 0.0
+2025 actc_claim_prob_scale 1.1
 2025 actc_claim_thd 0.0
 2025 FICA_ss_trt_employer 0.062
 2025 FICA_ss_trt_employee 0.062

taxcalc/cli/input_data_tests/cps-25.tables

@@ -1,17 +1,17 @@
 Weighted Tax Reform Totals by Baseline Expanded-Income Decile for 2025
     Returns    ExpInc    IncTax    PayTax     LSTax    AllTax
        (#m)      ($b)      ($b)      ($b)      ($b)      ($b)
- 0    21.75      50.0      -1.1       3.9       0.0       2.8
- 1    21.75     395.6     -10.5      34.4       0.0      23.8
- 2    21.75     739.8      -6.3      54.5       0.0      48.2
- 3    21.75     990.7       2.4      63.4       0.0      65.9
- 4    21.75    1247.4      13.5      88.2       0.0     101.7
- 5    21.75    1572.5      29.8     116.8       0.0     146.6
- 6    21.75    2003.5      57.6     152.1       0.0     209.7
- 7    21.75    2609.2     112.9     209.4       0.0     322.3
- 8    21.75    3589.7     243.8     321.1       0.0     564.9
- 9    21.75    8581.1    1473.0     626.0       0.0    2098.9
- A   217.51   21779.4    1915.1    1669.9       0.0    3585.0
+ 0    21.75      50.0      -0.6       3.9       0.0       3.3
+ 1    21.75     395.6      -8.6      34.4       0.0      25.7
+ 2    21.75     739.8      -4.2      54.5       0.0      50.3
+ 3    21.75     990.7       5.7      63.4       0.0      69.1
+ 4    21.75    1247.4      16.6      88.2       0.0     104.8
+ 5    21.75    1572.5      32.4     116.8       0.0     149.3
+ 6    21.75    2003.5      60.6     152.1       0.0     212.8
+ 7    21.75    2609.2     115.2     209.4       0.0     324.6
+ 8    21.75    3589.7     244.8     321.1       0.0     565.9
+ 9    21.75    8581.1    1473.2     626.0       0.0    2099.1
+ A   217.51   21779.4    1935.2    1669.9       0.0    3605.0
 
 Weighted Tax Differences by Baseline Expanded-Income Decile for 2025
     Returns    ExpInc    IncTax    PayTax     LSTax    AllTax

taxcalc/cli/input_data_tests/cps-26-params.baseline

@@ -1,5 +1,7 @@
 2026 parameter_indexing_CPI_offset 0.0
+2026 eitc_claim_prob_scale 1.04
 2026 eitc_claim_thd 0.0
+2026 actc_claim_prob_scale 1.1
 2026 actc_claim_thd 0.0
 2026 FICA_ss_trt_employer 0.062
 2026 FICA_ss_trt_employee 0.062

taxcalc/cli/input_data_tests/cps-26-params.reform

@@ -1,5 +1,7 @@
 2026 parameter_indexing_CPI_offset 0.0
+2026 eitc_claim_prob_scale 1.04
 2026 eitc_claim_thd 0.0
+2026 actc_claim_prob_scale 1.1
 2026 actc_claim_thd 0.0
 2026 FICA_ss_trt_employer 0.062
 2026 FICA_ss_trt_employee 0.062

taxcalc/cli/input_data_tests/cps-26.tables

@@ -1,17 +1,17 @@
 Weighted Tax Reform Totals by Baseline Expanded-Income Decile for 2026
     Returns    ExpInc    IncTax    PayTax     LSTax    AllTax
        (#m)      ($b)      ($b)      ($b)      ($b)      ($b)
- 0    22.01      52.2      -1.1       4.1       0.0       2.9
- 1    22.01     415.4     -10.8      36.0       0.0      25.2
- 2    22.01     778.4      -6.2      57.5       0.0      51.4
- 3    22.01    1043.1       3.3      66.5       0.0      69.8
- 4    22.01    1310.1      14.7      91.3       0.0     106.0
- 5    22.02    1649.0      31.3     121.2       0.0     152.5
- 6    22.01    2100.0      61.1     158.9       0.0     220.0
- 7    22.01    2735.4     119.9     218.2       0.0     338.2
- 8    22.01    3761.9     256.6     334.4       0.0     591.1
- 9    22.02    9000.9    1560.5     656.6       0.0    2217.2
- A   220.13   22846.4    2029.4    1744.9       0.0    3774.3
+ 0    22.01      52.2      -0.6       4.1       0.0       3.5
+ 1    22.01     415.4      -8.9      36.0       0.0      27.2
+ 2    22.01     778.4      -3.9      57.5       0.0      53.6
+ 3    22.01    1043.1       6.6      66.5       0.0      73.2
+ 4    22.01    1310.1      17.9      91.3       0.0     109.2
+ 5    22.02    1649.0      34.0     121.2       0.0     155.2
+ 6    22.01    2100.0      64.2     158.9       0.0     223.1
+ 7    22.01    2735.4     122.1     218.2       0.0     340.3
+ 8    22.01    3761.9     257.6     334.4       0.0     592.0
+ 9    22.02    9000.9    1560.7     656.6       0.0    2217.3
+ A   220.13   22846.4    2049.8    1744.9       0.0    3794.6
 
 Weighted Tax Differences by Baseline Expanded-Income Decile for 2026
     Returns    ExpInc    IncTax    PayTax     LSTax    AllTax

taxcalc/cli/input_data_tests/cps-27-params.baseline

@@ -1,5 +1,7 @@
 2027 parameter_indexing_CPI_offset 0.0
+2027 eitc_claim_prob_scale 1.04
 2027 eitc_claim_thd 0.0
+2027 actc_claim_prob_scale 1.1
 2027 actc_claim_thd 0.0
 2027 FICA_ss_trt_employer 0.062
 2027 FICA_ss_trt_employee 0.062

taxcalc/cli/input_data_tests/cps-27-params.reform

@@ -1,5 +1,7 @@
 2027 parameter_indexing_CPI_offset 0.0
+2027 eitc_claim_prob_scale 1.04
 2027 eitc_claim_thd 0.0
+2027 actc_claim_prob_scale 1.1
 2027 actc_claim_thd 0.0
 2027 FICA_ss_trt_employer 0.062
 2027 FICA_ss_trt_employee 0.062

taxcalc/cli/input_data_tests/cps-27.tables

@@ -1,17 +1,17 @@
 Weighted Tax Reform Totals by Baseline Expanded-Income Decile for 2027
     Returns    ExpInc    IncTax    PayTax     LSTax    AllTax
        (#m)      ($b)      ($b)      ($b)      ($b)      ($b)
- 0    22.27      54.1      -1.2       4.2       0.0       3.0
- 1    22.27     434.1     -11.2      37.5       0.0      26.3
- 2    22.27     810.3      -6.0      58.7       0.0      52.7
- 3    22.26    1083.4       3.4      68.4       0.0      71.7
- 4    22.27    1361.5      15.0      94.1       0.0     109.2
- 5    22.27    1713.7      33.2     126.3       0.0     159.5
- 6    22.27    2183.0      63.3     164.2       0.0     227.5
- 7    22.27    2844.7     127.2     228.9       0.0     356.1
- 8    22.27    3916.8     269.5     350.1       0.0     619.6
- 9    22.27    9333.7    1621.6     689.2       0.0    2310.8
- A   222.68   23735.3    2114.7    1821.6       0.0    3936.3
+ 0    22.27      54.1      -0.6       4.2       0.0       3.6
+ 1    22.27     434.1      -9.2      37.5       0.0      28.3
+ 2    22.27     810.3      -3.8      58.7       0.0      55.0
+ 3    22.26    1083.4       6.8      68.4       0.0      75.2
+ 4    22.27    1361.5      18.4      94.1       0.0     112.5
+ 5    22.27    1713.7      36.0     126.3       0.0     162.3
+ 6    22.27    2183.0      66.5     164.2       0.0     230.7
+ 7    22.27    2844.7     129.5     228.9       0.0     358.3
+ 8    22.27    3916.8     270.4     350.1       0.0     620.6
+ 9    22.27    9333.7    1621.7     689.2       0.0    2310.9
+ A   222.68   23735.3    2135.7    1821.6       0.0    3957.3
 
 Weighted Tax Differences by Baseline Expanded-Income Decile for 2027
     Returns    ExpInc    IncTax    PayTax     LSTax    AllTax

taxcalc/cli/input_data_tests/cps-28-params.baseline

@@ -1,5 +1,7 @@
 2028 parameter_indexing_CPI_offset 0.0
+2028 eitc_claim_prob_scale 1.04
 2028 eitc_claim_thd 0.0
+2028 actc_claim_prob_scale 1.1
 2028 actc_claim_thd 0.0
 2028 FICA_ss_trt_employer 0.062
 2028 FICA_ss_trt_employee 0.062

taxcalc/cli/input_data_tests/cps-28-params.reform

@@ -1,5 +1,7 @@
 2028 parameter_indexing_CPI_offset 0.0
+2028 eitc_claim_prob_scale 1.04
 2028 eitc_claim_thd 0.0
+2028 actc_claim_prob_scale 1.1
 2028 actc_claim_thd 0.0
 2028 FICA_ss_trt_employer 0.062
 2028 FICA_ss_trt_employee 0.062