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Rate/signal strength fits#76

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rbarrue wants to merge 2 commits intosbi-pdffrom
dev-rbarrue_rate_fits
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Rate/signal strength fits#76
rbarrue wants to merge 2 commits intosbi-pdffrom
dev-rbarrue_rate_fits

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@rbarrue
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@rbarrue rbarrue commented Jan 29, 2026

First version of unbinned rate fits seems to work.

Main issue: when scanning over the signal strength, Minuit starts at 1.0 as requested, but then starts going to large values, first positive, then negative. After the first evaluation with a large negative value, the POI is set to nan, and it is propagated to the likelihood evaluations. I wasn't really able to debug this yet.

@rbarrue rbarrue requested a review from schoef January 29, 2026 17:01
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rbarrue commented Mar 24, 2026

This is likely because we have so much signal w.r.t. background that at the some point the prediction goes negative.

Will need to put a lower bound on the signal strength, such that we don't get to this situation.

The current code has limits defined for some parameters, can just copy.

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