Paper 3a: population-scale Deadline-ILS pipeline + Phase B revision

.gitignore

@@ -8,5 +8,9 @@ dist/
 .ruff_cache/
 *.log
 .DS_Store
+datasets/
 .claude/
 memory/
+# operational checkpoints — large, resumable, not reproducible outputs
+data/paper3a/*_checkpoint.jsonl
+data/paper3a/phase1_log.jsonl

alembic/versions/0005_stub.py

@@ -0,0 +1,19 @@
+"""Stub for revisions 0003–0005 applied on task02h-phase3 (markets.resolution_type etc.)
+
+These migrations were applied to the DB on task02h-phase3 but were not merged to the
+current branch. This stub anchors the chain so 0006 can apply cleanly.
+"""
+from typing import Sequence, Union
+
+revision: str = "0005"
+down_revision: Union[str, None] = "0002"
+branch_labels: Union[str, Sequence[str], None] = None
+depends_on: Union[str, Sequence[str], None] = None
+
+
+def upgrade() -> None:
+    pass  # already applied on task02h-phase3
+
+
+def downgrade() -> None:
+    pass

alembic/versions/0006_market_labels_resolution_type.py

@@ -0,0 +1,33 @@
+"""Add resolution_type to market_labels (denormalized from markets)
+
+markets.resolution_type was added in migration 0005 (applied on task02h-phase3).
+This migration adds the matching denormalized column to market_labels.
+
+Revision ID: 0006
+Revises: 0005
+Create Date: 2026-04-28
+"""
+from typing import Sequence, Union
+
+import sqlalchemy as sa
+from alembic import op
+
+revision: str = "0006"
+down_revision: Union[str, None] = "0005"
+branch_labels: Union[str, Sequence[str], None] = None
+depends_on: Union[str, Sequence[str], None] = None
+
+
+def upgrade() -> None:
+    op.add_column(
+        "market_labels",
+        sa.Column("resolution_type", sa.String(30), nullable=True),
+    )
+    op.create_index(
+        "ix_market_labels_resolution_type", "market_labels", ["resolution_type"]
+    )
+
+
+def downgrade() -> None:
+    op.drop_index("ix_market_labels_resolution_type", table_name="market_labels")
+    op.drop_column("market_labels", "resolution_type")

data/fficd-004-inventory.jsonl

@@ -0,0 +1,11 @@
+{"case_id":"fficd-004","market_id":"0xbfa45527ec959aacc36f7c312bd4f328171a7681ef1aeb3a7e34db5fb47d3f1d","question":"Maduro in U.S. custody by January 31?","resolution_outcome":1.0,"resolved_at":"2026-01-07T01:00:51Z","volume_total_usdc":11034070,"category_fflow":"military_geopolitics","resolution_type":"unclassifiable","fficd_role":"primary","doj_market_name":"Maduro out by January 31, 2026","van_dyke_traded":true,"notes":"DOJ explicitly names this market as resolved YES. Van Dyke bought YES shares."}
+{"case_id":"fficd-004","market_id":"0x3b4b3c1b3c57646192cc82d219b984ba8ce3f659277e114d08066bfd9bfb935a","question":"US x Venezuela military engagement by January 15, 2026?","resolution_outcome":1.0,"resolved_at":"2026-01-03T10:30:45Z","volume_total_usdc":3298466,"category_fflow":"military_geopolitics","resolution_type":"unclassifiable","fficd_role":"primary","doj_market_name":null,"van_dyke_traded":null,"notes":"Resolved YES at the exact time of the Jan 3 operation (10:30 UTC). Highest-volume engagement market resolving on Jan 3."}
+{"case_id":"fficd-004","market_id":"0x92a5c5555d26f52758609c2da6a684a96fd54265abfb1d3c247d57335b6e13bd","question":"US x Venezuela military engagement by January 31, 2026?","resolution_outcome":1.0,"resolved_at":"2026-01-03T10:31:53Z","volume_total_usdc":931284,"category_fflow":"military_geopolitics","resolution_type":"unclassifiable","fficd_role":"core","doj_market_name":"U.S. Forces in Venezuela by January 31, 2026","van_dyke_traded":true,"notes":"DOJ refers to this as 'US forces in Venezuela by January 31'. Van Dyke bought YES shares. Resolved Jan 3 same as Jan 15 version."}
+{"case_id":"fficd-004","market_id":"0xdfaaf716c433747ae71bae5e78dfd4fdd0250d9cc348302376ae5baad52ca647","question":"Trump invokes War Powers against Venezuela by January 9?","resolution_outcome":1.0,"resolved_at":"2026-01-06T18:10:57Z","volume_total_usdc":982231,"category_fflow":"military_geopolitics","resolution_type":"unclassifiable","fficd_role":"core","doj_market_name":"Trump invokes War Powers against Venezuela by [date]","van_dyke_traded":true,"notes":"DOJ lists this as a Van Dyke market. Resolved YES Jan 6 when Trump submitted War Powers 48h report."}
+{"case_id":"fficd-004","market_id":"0x79801a0feefbc4c35df8f35d33583eef8ff2bd7a514c619929ac62e23c2cf93d","question":"Trump invokes War Powers against Venezuela by January 31?","resolution_outcome":1.0,"resolved_at":"2026-01-06T18:10:57Z","volume_total_usdc":731648,"category_fflow":"military_geopolitics","resolution_type":"unclassifiable","fficd_role":"core","doj_market_name":"Trump invokes War Powers against Venezuela by [date]","van_dyke_traded":true,"notes":"War Powers Jan 31 deadline. Resolved YES same time as Jan 9 version. Van Dyke traded."}
+{"case_id":"fficd-004","market_id":"0x3ad10b05e536a030e250fa6f19e5ffc95133d87d34c084f8cd2075e129332cab","question":"US x Venezuela military engagement by March 31, 2026?","resolution_outcome":1.0,"resolved_at":"2026-01-03T10:34:47Z","volume_total_usdc":1444954,"category_fflow":"military_geopolitics","resolution_type":"unclassifiable","fficd_role":"secondary","doj_market_name":null,"van_dyke_traded":null,"notes":"Resolved YES Jan 3 alongside Jan 15 and Jan 31 engagement markets. Longer deadline, same trigger event."}
+{"case_id":"fficd-004","market_id":"0xe377cc3f81cabf05e05be23be9be14a889c34f35eb38e6d166da4448d4b7850c","question":"Nicolás Maduro seen in public by January 5?","resolution_outcome":1.0,"resolved_at":"2026-01-04T03:40:35Z","volume_total_usdc":1588800,"category_fflow":"other","resolution_type":"deadline_resolved","fficd_role":"secondary","doj_market_name":null,"van_dyke_traded":null,"notes":"Resolved YES Jan 4 — Maduro was publicly displayed after capture on Jan 3. Corroborating event market."}
+{"case_id":"fficd-004","market_id":"0x7f3c6b9029a1a4a932509c147a2cc0762e1116b7a4568cde472908b29dd4889d","question":"Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by January 31, 2026?","resolution_outcome":0.0,"resolved_at":"2026-02-01T07:41:52Z","volume_total_usdc":8368551,"category_fflow":"military_geopolitics","resolution_type":"deadline_resolved","fficd_role":"context_no","doj_market_name":"Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by January 31, 2026","van_dyke_traded":true,"notes":"Van Dyke traded YES but it resolved NO — 'invasion' standard (establish territorial control) not met by capture op. Van Dyke likely lost on this position."}
+{"case_id":"fficd-004","market_id":"0x62b0cd598091a179147acbd4616400f804acfdff6f76f029944b481b37cbd45f","question":"US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31?","resolution_outcome":0.0,"resolved_at":"2026-01-05T00:33:37Z","volume_total_usdc":51073021,"category_fflow":"military_geopolitics","resolution_type":"deadline_resolved","fficd_role":"context_no","doj_market_name":null,"van_dyke_traded":null,"notes":"Largest market in cluster by volume ($51M). Deadline Dec 31; actual op Jan 3 — missed deadline by 3 days. Correctly NO."}
+{"case_id":"fficd-004","market_id":"0xbea5d5174cb5355eaf0f8cee780e67d0b22a6ff614ef7ec82cc2fe6ce8f4b111","question":"US x Venezuela military engagement by November 30?","resolution_outcome":0.0,"resolved_at":"2025-12-01T07:18:48Z","volume_total_usdc":9188344,"category_fflow":"military_geopolitics","resolution_type":"deadline_resolved","fficd_role":"context_no","doj_market_name":null,"van_dyke_traded":null,"notes":"Pre-event deadline-miss. No engagement before Nov 30. Part of rolling monthly series."}
+{"case_id":"fficd-004","market_id":"0x3f8c674a155ca643341200af3bc4dfc61a825f0c2de3d384df0707f11321de9c","question":"US forces in Venezuela again by January 31, 2026?","resolution_outcome":0.0,"resolved_at":"2026-02-01T07:58:44Z","volume_total_usdc":569370,"category_fflow":"military_geopolitics","resolution_type":"deadline_resolved","fficd_role":"context_no","doj_market_name":null,"van_dyke_traded":null,"notes":"'Again' qualifier = second incursion. Only one operation occurred (Jan 3). NO is correct. Not to be confused with DOJ's 'US forces in Venezuela by January 31' which maps to the military engagement YES market."}