V2 Published 06/10/2025
The file "Open Source Starlink TAM v2" is a rough approximation of Starlink's total addressable market, updating our original estimate posted in 2021.
The key inputs for this model are:
The number of satellites in the constellation. The bandwidth of each satellite (measured in megabits per second Mbps). The oversubscription ratio. (Not everyone in the same area is online at the same time) The acceptable cost of broadband (measured as a percent of monthly GNI). The minimum bandwidth in Mbps Starlink will provide. The logic of the model has two parts. The supply side is how much broadband the satellite constellation can provide, and the demand side is how many people are willing to pay for the service. Lastly, a simple sanity check shows the potential number of paying customers relative to the total and rural population.
V1 Published in 2021
ARK aims to upload a number of files that help dimension the opportunity for SpaceX's Starlink.
The file Open Source Starlink TAM is a rough approximation of Starlink's total addressable market.
Before you do anything, please read this blog for a more detailed discussion of our assessment.
The key inputs for this model are:
- The number of satellites in the constellation.
- The bandwidth of each satellite (measured in megabits per second Mbps).
- The oversubscription ratio. (Not everyone in the same area is online at the same time)
- The acceptable cost of broadband (measured as a percent of monthly GDP).
- The minimum bandwidth in Mbps Starlink will provide.
The logic of the model has two parts. The supply side is how much broadband the satellite constellation can provide, and the demand side is how many people are willing to pay for the service. Lastly, a simple sanity check shows the potential number of paying customers relative to the total and rural population.