From 8d2f501dcb5c3219d2f5d4492fa35fd8e82a5822 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001
From: bitloi <raphaelaloi.eth@gmail.com>
Date: Tue, 3 Mar 2026 06:03:18 +0100
Subject: [PATCH 1/8] feat(synth-overlay): expand to 5min/15min markets and
 ETH/SOL assets

- Add get_polymarket_5min() and get_polymarket_15min() methods to SynthClient
- Add asset parameter to get_polymarket_daily() and get_polymarket_hourly()
- Update matcher.py with MARKET_5MIN and MARKET_15MIN type detection
- Add short asset prefixes (btc-, eth-, sol-) to asset detection
- Preserve dual-horizon analysis (1h vs 24h) for daily/hourly markets
- Add analyze_single_horizon() with cross-horizon reference for 5min/15min
- Update Chrome extension UI for dynamic horizon labels and asset display
- Add mock data for 5min/15min markets and ETH/SOL daily/hourly
- 80 tests passing including 6 new analyzer + 8 new server tests

Closes #11
---
 mock_data/polymarket/up_down_15min_BTC.json   |  20 +++
 mock_data/polymarket/up_down_15min_ETH.json   |  20 +++
 mock_data/polymarket/up_down_15min_SOL.json   |  20 +++
 mock_data/polymarket/up_down_5min_BTC.json    |  20 +++
 mock_data/polymarket/up_down_5min_ETH.json    |  20 +++
 mock_data/polymarket/up_down_5min_SOL.json    |  20 +++
 ...down_daily.json => up_down_daily_BTC.json} |   0
 mock_data/polymarket/up_down_daily_ETH.json   |  21 +++
 mock_data/polymarket/up_down_daily_SOL.json   |  21 +++
 ...wn_hourly.json => up_down_hourly_BTC.json} |   0
 mock_data/polymarket/up_down_hourly_ETH.json  |  21 +++
 mock_data/polymarket/up_down_hourly_SOL.json  |  21 +++
 synth_client/client.py                        |  52 ++++++-
 tools/synth-overlay/README.md                 |  13 +-
 tools/synth-overlay/analyzer.py               |  85 +++++++++++
 tools/synth-overlay/extension/sidepanel.html  |   9 +-
 tools/synth-overlay/extension/sidepanel.js    |  60 ++++++--
 tools/synth-overlay/matcher.py                |  13 +-
 tools/synth-overlay/server.py                 | 135 ++++++++++++------
 tools/synth-overlay/tests/test_analyzer.py    |  43 ++++++
 tools/synth-overlay/tests/test_matcher.py     |  23 ++-
 tools/synth-overlay/tests/test_server.py      |  72 ++++++++--
 22 files changed, 631 insertions(+), 78 deletions(-)
 create mode 100644 mock_data/polymarket/up_down_15min_BTC.json
 create mode 100644 mock_data/polymarket/up_down_15min_ETH.json
 create mode 100644 mock_data/polymarket/up_down_15min_SOL.json
 create mode 100644 mock_data/polymarket/up_down_5min_BTC.json
 create mode 100644 mock_data/polymarket/up_down_5min_ETH.json
 create mode 100644 mock_data/polymarket/up_down_5min_SOL.json
 rename mock_data/polymarket/{up_down_daily.json => up_down_daily_BTC.json} (100%)
 create mode 100644 mock_data/polymarket/up_down_daily_ETH.json
 create mode 100644 mock_data/polymarket/up_down_daily_SOL.json
 rename mock_data/polymarket/{up_down_hourly.json => up_down_hourly_BTC.json} (100%)
 create mode 100644 mock_data/polymarket/up_down_hourly_ETH.json
 create mode 100644 mock_data/polymarket/up_down_hourly_SOL.json

diff --git a/mock_data/polymarket/up_down_15min_BTC.json b/mock_data/polymarket/up_down_15min_BTC.json
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..c1ffc9c
--- /dev/null
+++ b/mock_data/polymarket/up_down_15min_BTC.json
@@ -0,0 +1,20 @@
+{
+  "slug": "btc-updown-15m-1772204400",
+  "start_price": 68176.05,
+  "current_time": "2026-02-27T15:04:21+00:00",
+  "current_price": 67936.60,
+  "current_outcome": "Down",
+  "synth_probability_up": 0.0969,
+  "synth_outcome": "Down",
+  "polymarket_probability_up": 0.475,
+  "polymarket_outcome": "Down",
+  "event_start_time": "2026-02-27T15:00:00+00:00",
+  "event_end_time": "2026-02-27T15:15:00+00:00",
+  "best_bid_price": 0.47,
+  "best_ask_price": 0.48,
+  "best_bid_size": 218.0,
+  "best_ask_size": 445.47,
+  "polymarket_last_trade_time": "2026-02-27T14:59:57+00:00",
+  "polymarket_last_trade_price": 0.4582,
+  "polymarket_last_trade_outcome": "Down"
+}
diff --git a/mock_data/polymarket/up_down_15min_ETH.json b/mock_data/polymarket/up_down_15min_ETH.json
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..e7aefca
--- /dev/null
+++ b/mock_data/polymarket/up_down_15min_ETH.json
@@ -0,0 +1,20 @@
+{
+  "slug": "eth-updown-15m-1772204400",
+  "start_price": 3245.12,
+  "current_time": "2026-02-27T15:04:21+00:00",
+  "current_price": 3238.45,
+  "current_outcome": "Down",
+  "synth_probability_up": 0.3521,
+  "synth_outcome": "Down",
+  "polymarket_probability_up": 0.42,
+  "polymarket_outcome": "Down",
+  "event_start_time": "2026-02-27T15:00:00+00:00",
+  "event_end_time": "2026-02-27T15:15:00+00:00",
+  "best_bid_price": 0.41,
+  "best_ask_price": 0.43,
+  "best_bid_size": 156.0,
+  "best_ask_size": 312.5,
+  "polymarket_last_trade_time": "2026-02-27T14:58:32+00:00",
+  "polymarket_last_trade_price": 0.42,
+  "polymarket_last_trade_outcome": "Down"
+}
diff --git a/mock_data/polymarket/up_down_15min_SOL.json b/mock_data/polymarket/up_down_15min_SOL.json
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..1b6eda6
--- /dev/null
+++ b/mock_data/polymarket/up_down_15min_SOL.json
@@ -0,0 +1,20 @@
+{
+  "slug": "sol-updown-15m-1772204400",
+  "start_price": 142.85,
+  "current_time": "2026-02-27T15:04:21+00:00",
+  "current_price": 141.92,
+  "current_outcome": "Down",
+  "synth_probability_up": 0.2845,
+  "synth_outcome": "Down",
+  "polymarket_probability_up": 0.38,
+  "polymarket_outcome": "Down",
+  "event_start_time": "2026-02-27T15:00:00+00:00",
+  "event_end_time": "2026-02-27T15:15:00+00:00",
+  "best_bid_price": 0.37,
+  "best_ask_price": 0.39,
+  "best_bid_size": 89.0,
+  "best_ask_size": 201.3,
+  "polymarket_last_trade_time": "2026-02-27T14:57:18+00:00",
+  "polymarket_last_trade_price": 0.38,
+  "polymarket_last_trade_outcome": "Down"
+}
diff --git a/mock_data/polymarket/up_down_5min_BTC.json b/mock_data/polymarket/up_down_5min_BTC.json
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..abc6dec
--- /dev/null
+++ b/mock_data/polymarket/up_down_5min_BTC.json
@@ -0,0 +1,20 @@
+{
+  "slug": "btc-updown-5m-1772205000",
+  "start_price": 67980.25,
+  "current_time": "2026-02-27T15:16:21+00:00",
+  "current_price": 67945.80,
+  "current_outcome": "Down",
+  "synth_probability_up": 0.4215,
+  "synth_outcome": "Down",
+  "polymarket_probability_up": 0.485,
+  "polymarket_outcome": "Down",
+  "event_start_time": "2026-02-27T15:15:00+00:00",
+  "event_end_time": "2026-02-27T15:20:00+00:00",
+  "best_bid_price": 0.48,
+  "best_ask_price": 0.49,
+  "best_bid_size": 125.0,
+  "best_ask_size": 267.3,
+  "polymarket_last_trade_time": "2026-02-27T15:15:42+00:00",
+  "polymarket_last_trade_price": 0.485,
+  "polymarket_last_trade_outcome": "Down"
+}
diff --git a/mock_data/polymarket/up_down_5min_ETH.json b/mock_data/polymarket/up_down_5min_ETH.json
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..78a2d0c
--- /dev/null
+++ b/mock_data/polymarket/up_down_5min_ETH.json
@@ -0,0 +1,20 @@
+{
+  "slug": "eth-updown-5m-1772205000",
+  "start_price": 3240.50,
+  "current_time": "2026-02-27T15:16:21+00:00",
+  "current_price": 3242.15,
+  "current_outcome": "Up",
+  "synth_probability_up": 0.5832,
+  "synth_outcome": "Up",
+  "polymarket_probability_up": 0.52,
+  "polymarket_outcome": "Up",
+  "event_start_time": "2026-02-27T15:15:00+00:00",
+  "event_end_time": "2026-02-27T15:20:00+00:00",
+  "best_bid_price": 0.51,
+  "best_ask_price": 0.53,
+  "best_bid_size": 98.0,
+  "best_ask_size": 184.2,
+  "polymarket_last_trade_time": "2026-02-27T15:15:38+00:00",
+  "polymarket_last_trade_price": 0.52,
+  "polymarket_last_trade_outcome": "Up"
+}
diff --git a/mock_data/polymarket/up_down_5min_SOL.json b/mock_data/polymarket/up_down_5min_SOL.json
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..99493f5
--- /dev/null
+++ b/mock_data/polymarket/up_down_5min_SOL.json
@@ -0,0 +1,20 @@
+{
+  "slug": "sol-updown-5m-1772205000",
+  "start_price": 141.95,
+  "current_time": "2026-02-27T15:16:21+00:00",
+  "current_price": 142.08,
+  "current_outcome": "Up",
+  "synth_probability_up": 0.5124,
+  "synth_outcome": "Up",
+  "polymarket_probability_up": 0.48,
+  "polymarket_outcome": "Down",
+  "event_start_time": "2026-02-27T15:15:00+00:00",
+  "event_end_time": "2026-02-27T15:20:00+00:00",
+  "best_bid_price": 0.47,
+  "best_ask_price": 0.49,
+  "best_bid_size": 72.0,
+  "best_ask_size": 145.8,
+  "polymarket_last_trade_time": "2026-02-27T15:15:29+00:00",
+  "polymarket_last_trade_price": 0.48,
+  "polymarket_last_trade_outcome": "Down"
+}
diff --git a/mock_data/polymarket/up_down_daily.json b/mock_data/polymarket/up_down_daily_BTC.json
similarity index 100%
rename from mock_data/polymarket/up_down_daily.json
rename to mock_data/polymarket/up_down_daily_BTC.json
diff --git a/mock_data/polymarket/up_down_daily_ETH.json b/mock_data/polymarket/up_down_daily_ETH.json
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..40ee07d
--- /dev/null
+++ b/mock_data/polymarket/up_down_daily_ETH.json
@@ -0,0 +1,21 @@
+{
+  "slug": "ethereum-up-or-down-on-february-26",
+  "start_price": 3280.45,
+  "current_time": "2026-02-25T23:45:17.526062+00:00",
+  "current_price": 3245.82,
+  "current_outcome": "Down",
+  "synth_probability_up": 0.3825,
+  "synth_outcome": "Down",
+  "polymarket_probability_up": 0.415,
+  "polymarket_outcome": "Down",
+  "event_start_time": "2026-02-25T17:00:00+00:00",
+  "event_end_time": "2026-02-26T17:00:00+00:00",
+  "event_creation_time": "2026-02-24T17:02:40.731726+00:00",
+  "best_bid_price": 0.41,
+  "best_ask_price": 0.42,
+  "best_bid_size": 890.0,
+  "best_ask_size": 1250.0,
+  "polymarket_last_trade_time": "2026-02-25T23:42:15+00:00",
+  "polymarket_last_trade_price": 0.415,
+  "polymarket_last_trade_outcome": "Down"
+}
diff --git a/mock_data/polymarket/up_down_daily_SOL.json b/mock_data/polymarket/up_down_daily_SOL.json
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..851bc2f
--- /dev/null
+++ b/mock_data/polymarket/up_down_daily_SOL.json
@@ -0,0 +1,21 @@
+{
+  "slug": "solana-up-or-down-on-february-26",
+  "start_price": 145.62,
+  "current_time": "2026-02-25T23:45:17.526062+00:00",
+  "current_price": 142.18,
+  "current_outcome": "Down",
+  "synth_probability_up": 0.3142,
+  "synth_outcome": "Down",
+  "polymarket_probability_up": 0.38,
+  "polymarket_outcome": "Down",
+  "event_start_time": "2026-02-25T17:00:00+00:00",
+  "event_end_time": "2026-02-26T17:00:00+00:00",
+  "event_creation_time": "2026-02-24T17:02:40.731726+00:00",
+  "best_bid_price": 0.37,
+  "best_ask_price": 0.39,
+  "best_bid_size": 520.0,
+  "best_ask_size": 780.0,
+  "polymarket_last_trade_time": "2026-02-25T23:40:32+00:00",
+  "polymarket_last_trade_price": 0.38,
+  "polymarket_last_trade_outcome": "Down"
+}
diff --git a/mock_data/polymarket/up_down_hourly.json b/mock_data/polymarket/up_down_hourly_BTC.json
similarity index 100%
rename from mock_data/polymarket/up_down_hourly.json
rename to mock_data/polymarket/up_down_hourly_BTC.json
diff --git a/mock_data/polymarket/up_down_hourly_ETH.json b/mock_data/polymarket/up_down_hourly_ETH.json
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..dc7f442
--- /dev/null
+++ b/mock_data/polymarket/up_down_hourly_ETH.json
@@ -0,0 +1,21 @@
+{
+  "slug": "ethereum-up-or-down-february-25-6pm-et",
+  "start_price": 3252.80,
+  "current_time": "2026-02-25T23:45:23.586996+00:00",
+  "current_price": 3245.82,
+  "current_outcome": "Down",
+  "synth_probability_up": 0.2845,
+  "synth_outcome": "Down",
+  "polymarket_probability_up": 0.32,
+  "polymarket_outcome": "Down",
+  "event_start_time": "2026-02-25T23:00:00+00:00",
+  "event_end_time": "2026-02-26T00:00:00+00:00",
+  "event_creation_time": "2026-02-23T23:02:47.889891+00:00",
+  "best_bid_price": 0.31,
+  "best_ask_price": 0.33,
+  "best_bid_size": 145.0,
+  "best_ask_size": 210.5,
+  "polymarket_last_trade_time": "2026-02-25T23:43:18+00:00",
+  "polymarket_last_trade_price": 0.32,
+  "polymarket_last_trade_outcome": "Down"
+}
diff --git a/mock_data/polymarket/up_down_hourly_SOL.json b/mock_data/polymarket/up_down_hourly_SOL.json
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..d659e35
--- /dev/null
+++ b/mock_data/polymarket/up_down_hourly_SOL.json
@@ -0,0 +1,21 @@
+{
+  "slug": "solana-up-or-down-february-25-6pm-et",
+  "start_price": 143.25,
+  "current_time": "2026-02-25T23:45:23.586996+00:00",
+  "current_price": 142.18,
+  "current_outcome": "Down",
+  "synth_probability_up": 0.3521,
+  "synth_outcome": "Down",
+  "polymarket_probability_up": 0.40,
+  "polymarket_outcome": "Down",
+  "event_start_time": "2026-02-25T23:00:00+00:00",
+  "event_end_time": "2026-02-26T00:00:00+00:00",
+  "event_creation_time": "2026-02-23T23:02:47.889891+00:00",
+  "best_bid_price": 0.39,
+  "best_ask_price": 0.41,
+  "best_bid_size": 98.0,
+  "best_ask_size": 156.2,
+  "polymarket_last_trade_time": "2026-02-25T23:41:45+00:00",
+  "polymarket_last_trade_price": 0.40,
+  "polymarket_last_trade_outcome": "Down"
+}
diff --git a/synth_client/client.py b/synth_client/client.py
index ab68980..7954178 100644
--- a/synth_client/client.py
+++ b/synth_client/client.py
@@ -219,28 +219,68 @@ def get_lp_probabilities(self, asset: str) -> dict:
 
     # ─── Polymarket ──────────────────────────────────────────────────
 
-    def get_polymarket_daily(self) -> dict:
+    def get_polymarket_daily(self, asset: str = "BTC") -> dict:
         """
         Get daily up/down comparison between Synth forecasts and Polymarket prices.
 
+        Args:
+            asset: Asset symbol (BTC, ETH, SOL). Default: BTC
+
         Returns:
-            Dict with Synth vs Polymarket probability comparison (BTC)
+            Dict with Synth vs Polymarket probability comparison
         """
         return self._get(
             "/insights/polymarket/up-down/daily",
-            ["polymarket", "up_down_daily.json"],
+            ["polymarket", f"up_down_daily_{asset}.json"],
+            params={"asset": asset},
         )
 
-    def get_polymarket_hourly(self) -> dict:
+    def get_polymarket_hourly(self, asset: str = "BTC") -> dict:
         """
         Get hourly up/down comparison between Synth forecasts and Polymarket prices.
 
+        Args:
+            asset: Asset symbol (BTC, ETH, SOL). Default: BTC
+
         Returns:
-            Dict with Synth vs Polymarket probability comparison (BTC)
+            Dict with Synth vs Polymarket probability comparison
         """
         return self._get(
             "/insights/polymarket/up-down/hourly",
-            ["polymarket", "up_down_hourly.json"],
+            ["polymarket", f"up_down_hourly_{asset}.json"],
+            params={"asset": asset},
+        )
+
+    def get_polymarket_15min(self, asset: str = "BTC") -> dict:
+        """
+        Get 15-minute up/down comparison between Synth forecasts and Polymarket prices.
+
+        Args:
+            asset: Asset symbol (BTC, ETH, SOL). Default: BTC
+
+        Returns:
+            Dict with Synth vs Polymarket probability comparison
+        """
+        return self._get(
+            "/insights/polymarket/up-down/15min",
+            ["polymarket", f"up_down_15min_{asset}.json"],
+            params={"asset": asset},
+        )
+
+    def get_polymarket_5min(self, asset: str = "BTC") -> dict:
+        """
+        Get 5-minute up/down comparison between Synth forecasts and Polymarket prices.
+
+        Args:
+            asset: Asset symbol (BTC, ETH, SOL). Default: BTC
+
+        Returns:
+            Dict with Synth vs Polymarket probability comparison
+        """
+        return self._get(
+            "/insights/polymarket/up-down/5min",
+            ["polymarket", f"up_down_5min_{asset}.json"],
+            params={"asset": asset},
         )
 
     def get_polymarket_range(self) -> list:
diff --git a/tools/synth-overlay/README.md b/tools/synth-overlay/README.md
index 00f71ff..f1e015e 100644
--- a/tools/synth-overlay/README.md
+++ b/tools/synth-overlay/README.md
@@ -20,10 +20,12 @@ Chrome extension that uses Chrome's **native Side Panel** to show Synth market c
 
 ## Synth API usage
 
-- `get_polymarket_daily()` — daily up/down (24h) Synth vs Polymarket.
-- `get_polymarket_hourly()` — hourly up/down (1h).
+- `get_polymarket_daily(asset)` — daily up/down (24h) Synth vs Polymarket.
+- `get_polymarket_hourly(asset)` — hourly up/down (1h).
+- `get_polymarket_15min(asset)` — 15-minute up/down (15m).
+- `get_polymarket_5min(asset)` — 5-minute up/down (5m).
 - `get_polymarket_range()` — range brackets with synth vs polymarket probability per bracket.
-- `get_prediction_percentiles(asset, horizon)` — used for confidence scoring (forecast spread) and optional bias in explanations; wired for both up/down and range.
+- `get_prediction_percentiles(asset, horizon)` — used for confidence scoring (forecast spread) and optional bias in explanations.
 
 ## Run locally
 
@@ -41,8 +43,9 @@ Chrome extension that uses Chrome's **native Side Panel** to show Synth market c
    You should see JSON with `"signal"`, `"edge_pct"`, etc. If you see `"error"` or 404, the slug is not supported for the current mock/API.
 
 2. **Open the exact URL** in Chrome (with the extension loaded from `extension/`):
-   - Daily (mock): `https://polymarket.com/event/bitcoin-up-or-down-on-february-26`
-   - Hourly (mock): `https://polymarket.com/event/bitcoin-up-or-down-february-25-6pm-et`
+   - Daily (BTC): `https://polymarket.com/event/bitcoin-up-or-down-on-february-26`
+   - Hourly (ETH): `https://polymarket.com/event/ethereum-up-or-down-february-25-6pm-et`
+   - 15-Min (SOL): `https://polymarket.com/event/sol-updown-15m-1772204400`
    - The side panel requests the slug from the page and fetches Synth data from the local API. If API returns 200, panel fields populate.
 
 3. **Interaction:**
diff --git a/tools/synth-overlay/analyzer.py b/tools/synth-overlay/analyzer.py
index d4134e6..2e897b4 100644
--- a/tools/synth-overlay/analyzer.py
+++ b/tools/synth-overlay/analyzer.py
@@ -247,6 +247,91 @@ def _build_range_invalidation(self, bracket: dict, signal: str) -> str:
             )
         return f"No meaningful edge on {title} — bracket is fairly priced."
 
+    def analyze_single_horizon(self, data: dict, horizon: str = "24h") -> AnalysisResult:
+        """Analyze a single up/down market with optional reference-horizon context."""
+        edge = self._extract_edge(data, horizon)
+        strength = strength_from_edge(edge.edge_pct)
+
+        ref_edge = None
+        if self._hourly:
+            try:
+                ref_edge = self._extract_edge(self._hourly, "ref")
+            except (KeyError, ValueError):
+                pass
+
+        if ref_edge and signals_conflict(edge.signal, ref_edge.signal):
+            strength = "none"
+
+        spread_1h = self._percentile_spread(self._pct_1h)
+        spread_24h = self._percentile_spread(self._pct_24h)
+        confidence = self.compute_confidence(spread_1h, spread_24h)
+
+        high_uncertainty = any(
+            s is not None and s > 0.05 for s in (spread_1h, spread_24h)
+        )
+        conflict = ref_edge is not None and signals_conflict(edge.signal, ref_edge.signal)
+        no_trade = conflict or strength == "none" or high_uncertainty
+
+        bias = self._directional_bias(self._pct_24h) or self._directional_bias(self._pct_1h)
+        explanation = self._build_single_explanation(edge, ref_edge, confidence, horizon)
+        invalidation = self._build_short_invalidation(edge, bias, horizon)
+
+        return AnalysisResult(
+            primary=edge,
+            secondary=ref_edge,
+            strength=strength,
+            confidence_score=confidence,
+            no_trade=no_trade,
+            explanation=explanation,
+            invalidation=invalidation,
+        )
+
+    def _build_single_explanation(
+        self, edge: HorizonEdge, ref_edge: HorizonEdge | None, confidence: float, horizon: str
+    ) -> str:
+        """Build explanation for single-horizon analysis with optional reference context."""
+        parts = []
+        if edge.signal == "fair":
+            parts.append(f"Synth and Polymarket agree closely on this {horizon} market.")
+        else:
+            direction = "higher" if edge.edge_pct > 0 else "lower"
+            parts.append(
+                f"Synth forecasts {direction} probability than Polymarket "
+                f"by {abs(edge.edge_pct):.1f}pp on the {horizon} horizon."
+            )
+        if ref_edge and ref_edge.signal != "fair":
+            if signals_conflict(edge.signal, ref_edge.signal):
+                parts.append("Reference horizon disagrees — signals conflict.")
+            else:
+                parts.append(
+                    f"Reference horizon confirms with {abs(ref_edge.edge_pct):.1f}pp edge."
+                )
+        if confidence >= 0.7:
+            parts.append("Forecast distribution is narrow — high confidence.")
+        elif confidence <= 0.3:
+            parts.append("Forecast distribution is wide — low confidence, treat with caution.")
+        return " ".join(parts)
+
+    def _build_short_invalidation(self, edge: HorizonEdge, bias: float | None, horizon: str) -> str:
+        """Build invalidation text appropriate for short-term markets."""
+        parts = []
+        if edge.signal == "underpriced":
+            parts.append(
+                f"This {horizon} edge invalidates if price reverses, "
+                f"pushing Synth probability below market."
+            )
+        elif edge.signal == "overpriced":
+            parts.append(
+                f"This {horizon} edge invalidates if price moves up, "
+                f"pushing Synth probability above market."
+            )
+        else:
+            parts.append("No meaningful edge to invalidate — market is fairly priced.")
+        if bias is not None and abs(bias) > 0.02:
+            direction = "upward" if bias > 0 else "downward"
+            parts.append(f"Synth median shows a {direction} bias of {abs(bias)*100:.1f}%.")
+        return " ".join(parts)
+
     def analyze(self, primary_horizon: str = "24h") -> AnalysisResult:
         if not self._daily or not self._hourly:
             raise ValueError("Both daily and hourly data required for analysis")
diff --git a/tools/synth-overlay/extension/sidepanel.html b/tools/synth-overlay/extension/sidepanel.html
index 561b3c0..eb2dc2b 100644
--- a/tools/synth-overlay/extension/sidepanel.html
+++ b/tools/synth-overlay/extension/sidepanel.html
@@ -25,11 +25,16 @@ <h1>Synth</h1>
 
     <section class="card">
       <div class="label">Signal</div>
-      <div class="row"><span>1 h</span><strong id="signal1h">—</strong></div>
-      <div class="row"><span>24 h</span><strong id="signal24h">—</strong></div>
+      <div class="row"><span id="horizonLabel">Primary</span><strong id="signalPrimary">—</strong></div>
+      <div class="row" id="refRow"><span id="refLabel">Reference</span><strong id="signalRef">—</strong></div>
       <div class="row"><span>Strength</span><strong id="strength">—</strong></div>
     </section>
 
+    <section class="card" id="assetCard">
+      <div class="row"><span>Asset</span><strong id="assetName">—</strong></div>
+      <div class="row"><span>Market</span><strong id="marketType">—</strong></div>
+    </section>
+
     <section class="card">
       <div class="label">Confidence</div>
       <div class="bar"><div id="confFill" class="fill"></div></div>
diff --git a/tools/synth-overlay/extension/sidepanel.js b/tools/synth-overlay/extension/sidepanel.js
index fae0a45..37682a5 100644
--- a/tools/synth-overlay/extension/sidepanel.js
+++ b/tools/synth-overlay/extension/sidepanel.js
@@ -7,9 +7,14 @@ const els = {
   synthUp: document.getElementById("synthUp"),
   synthDown: document.getElementById("synthDown"),
   edgeValue: document.getElementById("edgeValue"),
-  signal1h: document.getElementById("signal1h"),
-  signal24h: document.getElementById("signal24h"),
+  horizonLabel: document.getElementById("horizonLabel"),
+  signalPrimary: document.getElementById("signalPrimary"),
+  refRow: document.getElementById("refRow"),
+  refLabel: document.getElementById("refLabel"),
+  signalRef: document.getElementById("signalRef"),
   strength: document.getElementById("strength"),
+  assetName: document.getElementById("assetName"),
+  marketType: document.getElementById("marketType"),
   confFill: document.getElementById("confFill"),
   confText: document.getElementById("confText"),
   analysisText: document.getElementById("analysisText"),
@@ -69,9 +74,14 @@ function render(state) {
   els.synthUp.textContent = state.synthUp;
   els.synthDown.textContent = state.synthDown;
   els.edgeValue.textContent = state.edge;
-  els.signal1h.textContent = state.signal1h;
-  els.signal24h.textContent = state.signal24h;
+  els.horizonLabel.textContent = state.horizonLabel || "Primary";
+  els.signalPrimary.textContent = state.signalPrimary;
+  els.refLabel.textContent = state.refLabel || "Reference";
+  els.signalRef.textContent = state.signalRef;
+  els.refRow.style.display = state.signalRef === "—" ? "none" : "";
   els.strength.textContent = state.strength;
+  els.assetName.textContent = state.asset || "—";
+  els.marketType.textContent = state.marketType || "—";
   els.analysisText.textContent = state.analysis;
   els.noTrade.classList.toggle("hidden", !state.noTrade);
   els.invalidationText.textContent = state.invalidation;
@@ -83,7 +93,9 @@ function render(state) {
 
 const EMPTY = {
   synthUp: "—", synthDown: "—", edge: "—",
-  signal1h: "—", signal24h: "—", strength: "—",
+  horizonLabel: "Primary", signalPrimary: "—",
+  refLabel: "Reference", signalRef: "—",
+  strength: "—", asset: "—", marketType: "—",
   analysis: "—", noTrade: false, invalidation: "—",
   confPct: 0, confColor: "#9ca3af", confText: "—",
   lastUpdate: "—",
@@ -119,22 +131,46 @@ async function refresh() {
     return;
   }
 
-  const synthProbUp = edge.synth_probability_up != null ? edge.synth_probability_up : edge.synth_probability;
-  const conf = edge.confidence_score != null ? edge.confidence_score : 0.5;
-  const confPct = Math.round(conf * 100);
+  var synthProbUp = edge.synth_probability_up != null ? edge.synth_probability_up : edge.synth_probability;
+  var conf = edge.confidence_score != null ? edge.confidence_score : 0.5;
+  var confPct = Math.round(conf * 100);
+  var horizon = edge.horizon || "24h";
+  var mtype = edge.market_type || "daily";
+
+  // Build signal labels based on response shape
+  var horizonLabel = horizon;
+  var signalPrimary = (edge.signal || "—") + " " + fmtEdge(edge.edge_pct);
+  var refLabel = "Reference";
+  var signalRef = "—";
+
+  // Dual-horizon (daily/hourly): use 1h/24h fields
+  if (edge.signal_1h && edge.signal_24h) {
+    horizonLabel = "1 h";
+    signalPrimary = edge.signal_1h + " " + fmtEdge(edge.edge_1h_pct);
+    refLabel = "24 h";
+    signalRef = edge.signal_24h + " " + fmtEdge(edge.edge_24h_pct);
+  } else if (edge.ref_signal) {
+    // Short-horizon with reference context
+    refLabel = edge.ref_horizon || "Ref";
+    signalRef = edge.ref_signal + " " + fmtEdge(edge.ref_edge_pct);
+  }
 
   render({
-    status: "Synced — showing Synth forecast data.",
+    status: "Synced — " + (edge.asset || "BTC") + " " + horizon + " forecast.",
     synthUp: fmtCentsFromProb(synthProbUp),
     synthDown: synthProbUp == null ? "—" : fmtCentsFromProb(1 - synthProbUp),
     edge: fmtEdge(edge.edge_pct),
-    signal1h: edge.signal_1h ? edge.signal_1h + " " + fmtEdge(edge.edge_1h_pct) : (edge.signal || "—"),
-    signal24h: edge.signal_24h ? edge.signal_24h + " " + fmtEdge(edge.edge_24h_pct) : "—",
+    horizonLabel: horizonLabel,
+    signalPrimary: signalPrimary,
+    refLabel: refLabel,
+    signalRef: signalRef,
     strength: edge.strength || "—",
+    asset: edge.asset || "BTC",
+    marketType: mtype,
     analysis: edge.explanation || "No explanation available.",
     invalidation: edge.invalidation || "—",
     noTrade: !!edge.no_trade_warning,
-    confPct,
+    confPct: confPct,
     confColor: confidenceColor(conf),
     confText: (conf >= 0.7 ? "High" : conf >= 0.4 ? "Medium" : "Low") + " (" + confPct + "%)",
     lastUpdate: fmtApiTime(edge.current_time),
diff --git a/tools/synth-overlay/matcher.py b/tools/synth-overlay/matcher.py
index f3c9dae..7f5c596 100644
--- a/tools/synth-overlay/matcher.py
+++ b/tools/synth-overlay/matcher.py
@@ -5,15 +5,22 @@
 
 MARKET_DAILY = "daily"
 MARKET_HOURLY = "hourly"
+MARKET_15MIN = "15min"
+MARKET_5MIN = "5min"
 MARKET_RANGE = "range"
 
 _HOURLY_TIME_PATTERN = re.compile(r"\d{1,2}(am|pm)")
+_15MIN_PATTERN = re.compile(r"(updown|up-down)-15m-|(?<!\d)15-?min")
+_5MIN_PATTERN = re.compile(r"(updown|up-down)-5m-|(?<!1)5-?min")
 
 _ASSET_PREFIXES = {
     "bitcoin": "BTC",
     "ethereum": "ETH",
     "solana": "SOL",
     "xrp": "XRP",
+    "btc": "BTC",
+    "eth": "ETH",
+    "sol": "SOL",
 }
 
 
@@ -41,11 +48,15 @@ def normalize_slug(url_or_slug: str) -> str | None:
     return None
 
 
-def get_market_type(slug: str) -> Literal["daily", "hourly", "range"] | None:
+def get_market_type(slug: str) -> Literal["daily", "hourly", "15min", "5min", "range"] | None:
     """Infer Synth market type from slug. Returns None if not recognizable."""
     if not slug:
         return None
     slug_lower = slug.lower()
+    if _5MIN_PATTERN.search(slug_lower):
+        return MARKET_5MIN
+    if _15MIN_PATTERN.search(slug_lower):
+        return MARKET_15MIN
     if "up-or-down" in slug_lower and _HOURLY_TIME_PATTERN.search(slug_lower):
         return MARKET_HOURLY
     if "up-or-down" in slug_lower and "on-" in slug_lower:
diff --git a/tools/synth-overlay/server.py b/tools/synth-overlay/server.py
index c155791..7629f06 100644
--- a/tools/synth-overlay/server.py
+++ b/tools/synth-overlay/server.py
@@ -45,6 +45,98 @@ def health():
     return jsonify({"status": "ok", "mock": get_client().mock_mode})
 
 
+_HORIZON_MAP = {"5min": "5min", "15min": "15min", "hourly": "1h", "daily": "24h"}
+
+
+def _fetch_updown_pair(client: SynthClient, asset: str, market_type: str) -> tuple[dict, dict]:
+    """Fetch primary + reference up/down data for cross-horizon context."""
+    fetchers = {
+        "5min": (client.get_polymarket_5min, client.get_polymarket_15min),
+        "15min": (client.get_polymarket_15min, client.get_polymarket_hourly),
+        "hourly": (client.get_polymarket_hourly, client.get_polymarket_daily),
+        "daily": (client.get_polymarket_daily, client.get_polymarket_hourly),
+    }
+    primary_fn, ref_fn = fetchers[market_type]
+    primary = primary_fn(asset)
+    try:
+        reference = ref_fn(asset)
+    except Exception:
+        reference = None
+    return primary, reference
+
+
+def _handle_updown_market(client: SynthClient, slug: str, asset: str, market_type: str):
+    """Handle up/down markets for any supported asset and horizon."""
+    primary_data, reference_data = _fetch_updown_pair(client, asset, market_type)
+
+    pct_1h = None
+    pct_24h = None
+    try:
+        pct_1h = client.get_prediction_percentiles(asset, horizon="1h")
+        pct_24h = client.get_prediction_percentiles(asset, horizon="24h")
+    except Exception:
+        pass
+
+    primary_horizon = _HORIZON_MAP[market_type]
+
+    # Daily/hourly: preserve dual-horizon analysis (1h vs 24h cross-comparison)
+    if market_type in ("daily", "hourly") and reference_data:
+        daily = primary_data if market_type == "daily" else reference_data
+        hourly = reference_data if market_type == "daily" else primary_data
+        analyzer = EdgeAnalyzer(daily, hourly, pct_1h, pct_24h)
+        result = analyzer.analyze(primary_horizon=primary_horizon)
+        primary_src = daily if market_type == "daily" else hourly
+        return jsonify({
+            "slug": slug,
+            "asset": asset,
+            "horizon": primary_horizon,
+            "market_type": market_type,
+            "edge_pct": result.primary.edge_pct,
+            "signal": result.primary.signal,
+            "strength": result.strength,
+            "confidence_score": result.confidence_score,
+            "edge_1h_pct": result.secondary.edge_pct if primary_horizon == "24h" else result.primary.edge_pct,
+            "signal_1h": result.secondary.signal if primary_horizon == "24h" else result.primary.signal,
+            "edge_24h_pct": result.primary.edge_pct if primary_horizon == "24h" else result.secondary.edge_pct,
+            "signal_24h": result.primary.signal if primary_horizon == "24h" else result.secondary.signal,
+            "no_trade_warning": result.no_trade,
+            "explanation": result.explanation,
+            "invalidation": result.invalidation,
+            "synth_probability_up": primary_src.get("synth_probability_up"),
+            "polymarket_probability_up": primary_src.get("polymarket_probability_up"),
+            "current_time": primary_src.get("current_time"),
+        })
+
+    # 5min/15min: single-horizon analysis with optional reference context
+    analyzer = EdgeAnalyzer(primary_data, reference_data, pct_1h, pct_24h)
+    result = analyzer.analyze_single_horizon(primary_data, horizon=primary_horizon)
+
+    resp = {
+        "slug": slug,
+        "asset": asset,
+        "horizon": primary_horizon,
+        "market_type": market_type,
+        "edge_pct": result.primary.edge_pct,
+        "signal": result.primary.signal,
+        "strength": result.strength,
+        "confidence_score": result.confidence_score,
+        "no_trade_warning": result.no_trade,
+        "explanation": result.explanation,
+        "invalidation": result.invalidation,
+        "synth_probability_up": primary_data.get("synth_probability_up"),
+        "polymarket_probability_up": primary_data.get("polymarket_probability_up"),
+        "current_time": primary_data.get("current_time"),
+    }
+    # Include reference horizon context when available
+    if reference_data and result.secondary:
+        resp["ref_horizon"] = _HORIZON_MAP.get(
+            {"5min": "15min", "15min": "hourly"}.get(market_type, ""), ""
+        )
+        resp["ref_edge_pct"] = result.secondary.edge_pct
+        resp["ref_signal"] = result.secondary.signal
+    return jsonify(resp)
+
+
 @app.route("/api/edge", methods=["GET", "OPTIONS"])
 def edge():
     if request.method == "OPTIONS":
@@ -59,47 +151,8 @@ def edge():
     asset = asset_from_slug(slug) or "BTC"
     try:
         client = get_client()
-        if market_type in ("daily", "hourly"):
-            if asset != "BTC":
-                return jsonify({
-                    "error": f"Only BTC up-or-down markets are currently supported. "
-                             f"This market appears to be {asset}.",
-                    "slug": slug,
-                    "asset": asset,
-                }), 404
-            daily_data = client.get_polymarket_daily()
-            hourly_data = client.get_polymarket_hourly()
-            pct_1h = None
-            pct_24h = None
-            try:
-                pct_1h = client.get_prediction_percentiles(asset, horizon="1h")
-                pct_24h = client.get_prediction_percentiles(asset, horizon="24h")
-            except Exception:
-                pass
-            primary_horizon = "24h" if market_type == "daily" else "1h"
-            analyzer = EdgeAnalyzer(daily_data, hourly_data, pct_1h, pct_24h)
-            result = analyzer.analyze(primary_horizon=primary_horizon)
-            primary_data = daily_data if market_type == "daily" else hourly_data
-            return jsonify({
-                # Echo requested slug so extension can run on active matching markets,
-                # even when mock payload carries a different representative slug.
-                "slug": slug,
-                "horizon": primary_horizon,
-                "edge_pct": result.primary.edge_pct,
-                "signal": result.primary.signal,
-                "strength": result.strength,
-                "confidence_score": result.confidence_score,
-                "edge_1h_pct": result.secondary.edge_pct if primary_horizon == "24h" else result.primary.edge_pct,
-                "signal_1h": result.secondary.signal if primary_horizon == "24h" else result.primary.signal,
-                "edge_24h_pct": result.primary.edge_pct if primary_horizon == "24h" else result.secondary.edge_pct,
-                "signal_24h": result.primary.signal if primary_horizon == "24h" else result.secondary.signal,
-                "no_trade_warning": result.no_trade,
-                "explanation": result.explanation,
-                "invalidation": result.invalidation,
-                "synth_probability_up": primary_data.get("synth_probability_up"),
-                "polymarket_probability_up": primary_data.get("polymarket_probability_up"),
-                "current_time": primary_data.get("current_time"),
-            })
+        if market_type in ("daily", "hourly", "15min", "5min"):
+            return _handle_updown_market(client, slug, asset, market_type)
         # range
         data = client.get_polymarket_range()
         if not isinstance(data, list):
diff --git a/tools/synth-overlay/tests/test_analyzer.py b/tools/synth-overlay/tests/test_analyzer.py
index 4727efb..5752adf 100644
--- a/tools/synth-overlay/tests/test_analyzer.py
+++ b/tools/synth-overlay/tests/test_analyzer.py
@@ -185,3 +185,46 @@ def test_range_no_trade_on_weak_edge(self):
         sel = _bracket("[66000, 68000]", 0.40, 0.40)
         r = EdgeAnalyzer().analyze_range(sel, [sel])
         assert r.no_trade is True
+
+
+class TestSingleHorizonAnalysis:
+    def test_basic_single_horizon(self):
+        data = _daily(0.55, 0.50)
+        r = EdgeAnalyzer(data, None).analyze_single_horizon(data, horizon="15min")
+        assert isinstance(r, AnalysisResult)
+        assert r.primary.horizon == "15min"
+        assert r.primary.edge_pct == 5.0
+        assert r.primary.signal == "underpriced"
+
+    def test_single_horizon_with_reference(self):
+        primary = _daily(0.55, 0.50)
+        ref = _daily(0.54, 0.50)
+        r = EdgeAnalyzer(primary, ref).analyze_single_horizon(primary, horizon="5min")
+        assert r.secondary is not None
+        assert "confirms" in r.explanation.lower() or "higher" in r.explanation.lower()
+
+    def test_single_horizon_conflict_with_reference(self):
+        primary = _daily(0.55, 0.50)
+        ref = _daily(0.44, 0.50)
+        r = EdgeAnalyzer(primary, ref).analyze_single_horizon(primary, horizon="15min")
+        assert r.no_trade is True
+        assert r.strength == "none"
+        assert "conflict" in r.explanation.lower()
+
+    def test_single_horizon_no_reference(self):
+        data = _daily(0.50, 0.50)
+        r = EdgeAnalyzer(data, None).analyze_single_horizon(data, horizon="5min")
+        assert r.secondary is None
+        assert r.primary.signal == "fair"
+        assert "agree" in r.explanation.lower()
+
+    def test_single_horizon_invalidation_uses_horizon(self):
+        data = _daily(0.55, 0.50)
+        r = EdgeAnalyzer(data, None).analyze_single_horizon(data, horizon="5min")
+        assert "5min" in r.invalidation
+
+    def test_single_horizon_confidence_with_percentiles(self):
+        data = _daily(0.55, 0.50)
+        pct_narrow = _pct(100, 99.5, 100, 100.5)
+        r = EdgeAnalyzer(data, None, pct_narrow, pct_narrow).analyze_single_horizon(data)
+        assert r.confidence_score >= 0.7
diff --git a/tools/synth-overlay/tests/test_matcher.py b/tools/synth-overlay/tests/test_matcher.py
index a11dac6..a8f74dc 100644
--- a/tools/synth-overlay/tests/test_matcher.py
+++ b/tools/synth-overlay/tests/test_matcher.py
@@ -33,6 +33,20 @@ def test_get_market_type_hourly():
     assert get_market_type("btc-up-or-down-march-1-3pm-et") == "hourly"
 
 
+def test_get_market_type_15min():
+    assert get_market_type("btc-updown-15m-1772204400") == "15min"
+    assert get_market_type("eth-updown-15m-1772204400") == "15min"
+    assert get_market_type("sol-up-down-15m-1772204400") == "15min"
+    assert get_market_type("bitcoin-15min-market") == "15min"
+
+
+def test_get_market_type_5min():
+    assert get_market_type("btc-updown-5m-1772205000") == "5min"
+    assert get_market_type("eth-updown-5m-1772205000") == "5min"
+    assert get_market_type("sol-up-down-5m-1772205000") == "5min"
+    assert get_market_type("bitcoin-5min-market") == "5min"
+
+
 def test_get_market_type_range():
     assert get_market_type("bitcoin-price-on-february-26") == "range"
 
@@ -44,6 +58,8 @@ def test_get_market_type_unsupported():
 def test_is_supported():
     assert is_supported("bitcoin-up-or-down-on-february-26") is True
     assert is_supported("bitcoin-price-on-february-26") is True
+    assert is_supported("btc-updown-15m-1772204400") is True
+    assert is_supported("eth-updown-5m-1772205000") is True
     assert is_supported("unknown-market") is False
 
 
@@ -54,8 +70,13 @@ def test_asset_from_slug():
     assert asset_from_slug("xrp-up-or-down-on-march-1") == "XRP"
 
 
+def test_asset_from_slug_short_prefixes():
+    assert asset_from_slug("btc-up-or-down-on-march-1") == "BTC"
+    assert asset_from_slug("eth-updown-15m-1772204400") == "ETH"
+    assert asset_from_slug("sol-updown-5m-1772205000") == "SOL"
+
+
 def test_asset_from_slug_unknown():
-    assert asset_from_slug("btc-up-or-down-on-march-1") is None
     assert asset_from_slug("random-slug") is None
     assert asset_from_slug("") is None
     assert asset_from_slug(None) is None
diff --git a/tools/synth-overlay/tests/test_server.py b/tools/synth-overlay/tests/test_server.py
index 11c4117..b2cb182 100644
--- a/tools/synth-overlay/tests/test_server.py
+++ b/tools/synth-overlay/tests/test_server.py
@@ -37,6 +37,9 @@ def test_edge_daily(client):
     assert data["signal"] in ("underpriced", "overpriced", "fair")
     assert data["strength"] in ("strong", "moderate", "none")
     assert data["horizon"] == "24h"
+    assert data["market_type"] == "daily"
+    assert data["asset"] == "BTC"
+    # Dual-horizon fields preserved for daily/hourly
     assert "edge_1h_pct" in data
     assert "edge_24h_pct" in data
     assert "signal_1h" in data
@@ -55,9 +58,10 @@ def test_edge_hourly_uses_hourly_primary_fields(client):
     assert resp.status_code == 200
     data = resp.get_json()
     assert data["horizon"] == "1h"
+    assert data["market_type"] == "hourly"
     assert data["slug"] == "bitcoin-up-or-down-february-25-6pm-et"
-    assert data["synth_probability_up"] == 0.0004
-    assert data["polymarket_probability_up"] == 0.006500000000000001
+    assert "synth_probability_up" in data
+    assert "polymarket_probability_up" in data
 
 
 def test_edge_missing_slug(client):
@@ -109,17 +113,65 @@ def test_edge_range_unknown_slug_404(client):
     assert resp.status_code == 404
 
 
-def test_edge_non_btc_daily_rejected(client):
-    resp = client.get("/api/edge?slug=ethereum-up-or-down-on-february-28")
-    assert resp.status_code == 404
+def test_edge_eth_daily_supported(client):
+    resp = client.get("/api/edge?slug=ethereum-up-or-down-on-february-26")
+    assert resp.status_code == 200
     data = resp.get_json()
-    assert "Only BTC" in data["error"]
     assert data["asset"] == "ETH"
+    assert data["market_type"] == "daily"
+    assert "edge_pct" in data
 
 
-def test_edge_non_btc_hourly_rejected(client):
-    resp = client.get("/api/edge?slug=solana-up-or-down-february-28-3pm-et")
-    assert resp.status_code == 404
+def test_edge_sol_hourly_supported(client):
+    resp = client.get("/api/edge?slug=solana-up-or-down-february-25-6pm-et")
+    assert resp.status_code == 200
+    data = resp.get_json()
+    assert data["asset"] == "SOL"
+    assert data["market_type"] == "hourly"
+    assert "edge_pct" in data
+
+
+def test_edge_15min_btc(client):
+    resp = client.get("/api/edge?slug=btc-updown-15m-1772204400")
+    assert resp.status_code == 200
+    data = resp.get_json()
+    assert data["horizon"] == "15min"
+    assert data["market_type"] == "15min"
+    assert data["asset"] == "BTC"
+    assert "edge_pct" in data
+    assert "confidence_score" in data
+    assert "explanation" in data
+    assert len(data["explanation"]) > 10
+    assert "invalidation" in data
+    assert "15min" in data["invalidation"]
+    # Should NOT have dual-horizon 1h/24h fields
+    assert "edge_1h_pct" not in data
+    assert "signal_24h" not in data
+
+
+def test_edge_15min_eth(client):
+    resp = client.get("/api/edge?slug=eth-updown-15m-1772204400")
+    assert resp.status_code == 200
+    data = resp.get_json()
+    assert data["asset"] == "ETH"
+    assert data["market_type"] == "15min"
+
+
+def test_edge_5min_btc(client):
+    resp = client.get("/api/edge?slug=btc-updown-5m-1772205000")
+    assert resp.status_code == 200
+    data = resp.get_json()
+    assert data["horizon"] == "5min"
+    assert data["market_type"] == "5min"
+    assert data["asset"] == "BTC"
+    assert "edge_pct" in data
+    assert "5min" in data["invalidation"]
+    assert "edge_1h_pct" not in data
+
+
+def test_edge_5min_sol(client):
+    resp = client.get("/api/edge?slug=sol-updown-5m-1772205000")
+    assert resp.status_code == 200
     data = resp.get_json()
-    assert "Only BTC" in data["error"]
     assert data["asset"] == "SOL"
+    assert data["market_type"] == "5min"

From 03e9bb25d4ef0fb8b6778c9cebc7661e94a6d86b Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001
From: bitloi <raphaelaloi.eth@gmail.com>
Date: Wed, 4 Mar 2026 18:56:34 +0100
Subject: [PATCH 2/8] fix: address PR feedback - live DOM price scraping and
 polling optimization

1. Real-time Polymarket Price Tracking:
   - Added scrapeLivePrices() in content.js with 3 fallback strategies
   - Pass live_prob_up to server for real-time edge calculation
   - Server overrides API price with live DOM price when available
   - Added live_price_used field in response for debugging

2. API Polling Frequency:
   - Changed polling from 15s to 30s (Synth API updates ~60s)
   - Documented rationale in code comments
   - Live DOM prices provide real-time updates independent of API

Tests: 82 passed
---
 tools/synth-overlay/extension/content.js   | 83 ++++++++++++++++++++++
 tools/synth-overlay/extension/sidepanel.js | 18 +++--
 tools/synth-overlay/server.py              | 35 ++++++++-
 tools/synth-overlay/tests/test_server.py   | 24 +++++++
 4 files changed, 153 insertions(+), 7 deletions(-)

diff --git a/tools/synth-overlay/extension/content.js b/tools/synth-overlay/extension/content.js
index 9fbed49..3d31907 100644
--- a/tools/synth-overlay/extension/content.js
+++ b/tools/synth-overlay/extension/content.js
@@ -18,12 +18,95 @@
     return segments[segments.length - 1] || null;
   }
 
+  /**
+   * Scrape live Polymarket prices from the DOM.
+   * Looks for Up/Down outcome buttons and extracts their cent values.
+   * Returns { upPrice: 0.XX, downPrice: 0.XX } or null if not found.
+   */
+  function scrapeLivePrices() {
+    var upPrice = null;
+    var downPrice = null;
+
+    // Strategy 1: Look for buttons/elements containing "Up" or "Down" with cent values
+    // Polymarket typically shows prices like "Up 85¢" or "Down 16¢"
+    var allElements = document.querySelectorAll("button, [role='button'], a");
+    
+    for (var i = 0; i < allElements.length; i++) {
+      var el = allElements[i];
+      var text = (el.textContent || "").trim();
+      
+      // Match patterns like "Up 85¢", "Up85¢", "Up 0.85", "Yes 85¢"
+      var upMatch = text.match(/^(Up|Yes)\s*(\d+)\s*[¢c]?$/i);
+      var downMatch = text.match(/^(Down|No)\s*(\d+)\s*[¢c]?$/i);
+      
+      if (upMatch && upMatch[2]) {
+        upPrice = parseInt(upMatch[2], 10) / 100;
+      }
+      if (downMatch && downMatch[2]) {
+        downPrice = parseInt(downMatch[2], 10) / 100;
+      }
+    }
+
+    // Strategy 2: Look for data attributes or structured price elements
+    if (upPrice === null || downPrice === null) {
+      var priceEls = document.querySelectorAll("[data-outcome], [data-price]");
+      for (var j = 0; j < priceEls.length; j++) {
+        var priceEl = priceEls[j];
+        var outcome = priceEl.getAttribute("data-outcome");
+        var priceVal = priceEl.getAttribute("data-price");
+        if (outcome && priceVal) {
+          var p = parseFloat(priceVal);
+          if (outcome.toLowerCase() === "up" || outcome.toLowerCase() === "yes") {
+            upPrice = p;
+          } else if (outcome.toLowerCase() === "down" || outcome.toLowerCase() === "no") {
+            downPrice = p;
+          }
+        }
+      }
+    }
+
+    // Strategy 3: Look for common Polymarket class patterns
+    if (upPrice === null || downPrice === null) {
+      // Try finding outcome cards with price text
+      var cards = document.querySelectorAll("[class*='outcome'], [class*='Outcome']");
+      for (var k = 0; k < cards.length; k++) {
+        var card = cards[k];
+        var cardText = (card.textContent || "").toLowerCase();
+        var centMatch = cardText.match(/(\d+)\s*[¢c]/);
+        if (centMatch) {
+          var cents = parseInt(centMatch[1], 10) / 100;
+          if (cardText.indexOf("up") !== -1 || cardText.indexOf("yes") !== -1) {
+            upPrice = cents;
+          } else if (cardText.indexOf("down") !== -1 || cardText.indexOf("no") !== -1) {
+            downPrice = cents;
+          }
+        }
+      }
+    }
+
+    if (upPrice !== null && downPrice !== null) {
+      return { upPrice: upPrice, downPrice: downPrice };
+    }
+    
+    // Fallback: if we only have one, derive the other (prices should sum to ~1)
+    if (upPrice !== null && downPrice === null) {
+      return { upPrice: upPrice, downPrice: 1 - upPrice };
+    }
+    if (downPrice !== null && upPrice === null) {
+      return { upPrice: 1 - downPrice, downPrice: downPrice };
+    }
+
+    return null;
+  }
+
   function getContext() {
+    var livePrices = scrapeLivePrices();
     return {
       slug: slugFromPage(),
       url: window.location.href,
       host: window.location.hostname,
       pageUpdatedAt: Date.now(),
+      livePrices: livePrices,
     };
   }
 
diff --git a/tools/synth-overlay/extension/sidepanel.js b/tools/synth-overlay/extension/sidepanel.js
index 37682a5..7a6d455 100644
--- a/tools/synth-overlay/extension/sidepanel.js
+++ b/tools/synth-overlay/extension/sidepanel.js
@@ -63,8 +63,13 @@ async function getContextFromPage(tabId) {
   }
 }
 
-async function fetchEdge(slug) {
-  const res = await fetch(API_BASE + "/api/edge?slug=" + encodeURIComponent(slug));
+async function fetchEdge(slug, livePrices) {
+  var url = API_BASE + "/api/edge?slug=" + encodeURIComponent(slug);
+  // Pass live prices to server if available for real-time edge calculation
+  if (livePrices && livePrices.upPrice != null) {
+    url += "&live_prob_up=" + encodeURIComponent(livePrices.upPrice);
+  }
+  const res = await fetch(url);
   if (!res.ok) return null;
   return await res.json();
 }
@@ -122,7 +127,7 @@ async function refresh() {
     return;
   }
 
-  const edge = await fetchEdge(ctx.slug);
+  const edge = await fetchEdge(ctx.slug, ctx.livePrices);
   if (!edge || edge.error) {
     render(Object.assign({}, EMPTY, {
       status: "Market not supported by Synth for this slug.",
@@ -179,4 +184,9 @@ async function refresh() {
 
 els.refreshBtn.addEventListener("click", refresh);
 refresh();
-setInterval(refresh, 15000);
+
+// Polling frequency: Synth API updates forecasts every ~60 seconds for short-term markets.
+// We poll every 30 seconds to balance freshness vs API load.
+// Live DOM prices are scraped on each refresh for real-time edge calculation.
+const SYNTH_POLL_INTERVAL_MS = 30000;
+setInterval(refresh, SYNTH_POLL_INTERVAL_MS);
diff --git a/tools/synth-overlay/server.py b/tools/synth-overlay/server.py
index 7629f06..2855fab 100644
--- a/tools/synth-overlay/server.py
+++ b/tools/synth-overlay/server.py
@@ -65,10 +65,22 @@ def _fetch_updown_pair(client: SynthClient, asset: str, market_type: str) -> tup
     return primary, reference
 
 
-def _handle_updown_market(client: SynthClient, slug: str, asset: str, market_type: str):
-    """Handle up/down markets for any supported asset and horizon."""
+def _handle_updown_market(
+    client: SynthClient, slug: str, asset: str, market_type: str, live_prob_up: float | None = None
+):
+    """Handle up/down markets for any supported asset and horizon.
+    
+    Args:
+        live_prob_up: Real-time Polymarket price scraped from DOM. If provided,
+                      overrides the API's polymarket_probability_up for edge calculation.
+    """
     primary_data, reference_data = _fetch_updown_pair(client, asset, market_type)
 
+    # Override Polymarket probability with live DOM price if available
+    if live_prob_up is not None:
+        primary_data = dict(primary_data)  # Copy to avoid mutating cached data
+        primary_data["polymarket_probability_up"] = live_prob_up
+
     pct_1h = None
     pct_24h = None
     try:
@@ -83,6 +95,14 @@ def _handle_updown_market(client: SynthClient, slug: str, asset: str, market_typ
     if market_type in ("daily", "hourly") and reference_data:
         daily = primary_data if market_type == "daily" else reference_data
         hourly = reference_data if market_type == "daily" else primary_data
+        # Apply live price override to the appropriate horizon data
+        if live_prob_up is not None:
+            if market_type == "daily":
+                daily = dict(daily)
+                daily["polymarket_probability_up"] = live_prob_up
+            else:
+                hourly = dict(hourly)
+                hourly["polymarket_probability_up"] = live_prob_up
         analyzer = EdgeAnalyzer(daily, hourly, pct_1h, pct_24h)
         result = analyzer.analyze(primary_horizon=primary_horizon)
         primary_src = daily if market_type == "daily" else hourly
@@ -105,6 +125,7 @@ def _handle_updown_market(client: SynthClient, slug: str, asset: str, market_typ
             "synth_probability_up": primary_src.get("synth_probability_up"),
             "polymarket_probability_up": primary_src.get("polymarket_probability_up"),
             "current_time": primary_src.get("current_time"),
+            "live_price_used": live_prob_up is not None,
         })
 
     # 5min/15min: single-horizon analysis with optional reference context
@@ -126,6 +147,7 @@ def _handle_updown_market(client: SynthClient, slug: str, asset: str, market_typ
         "synth_probability_up": primary_data.get("synth_probability_up"),
         "polymarket_probability_up": primary_data.get("polymarket_probability_up"),
         "current_time": primary_data.get("current_time"),
+        "live_price_used": live_prob_up is not None,
     }
     # Include reference horizon context when available
     if reference_data and result.secondary:
@@ -149,10 +171,17 @@ def edge():
     if not market_type:
         return jsonify({"error": "Unsupported market", "slug": slug}), 404
     asset = asset_from_slug(slug) or "BTC"
+    # Live Polymarket price scraped from DOM (real-time, avoids API latency)
+    live_prob_up = request.args.get("live_prob_up")
+    if live_prob_up:
+        try:
+            live_prob_up = float(live_prob_up)
+        except (ValueError, TypeError):
+            live_prob_up = None
     try:
         client = get_client()
         if market_type in ("daily", "hourly", "15min", "5min"):
-            return _handle_updown_market(client, slug, asset, market_type)
+            return _handle_updown_market(client, slug, asset, market_type, live_prob_up)
         # range
         data = client.get_polymarket_range()
         if not isinstance(data, list):
diff --git a/tools/synth-overlay/tests/test_server.py b/tools/synth-overlay/tests/test_server.py
index b2cb182..710926c 100644
--- a/tools/synth-overlay/tests/test_server.py
+++ b/tools/synth-overlay/tests/test_server.py
@@ -175,3 +175,27 @@ def test_edge_5min_sol(client):
     data = resp.get_json()
     assert data["asset"] == "SOL"
     assert data["market_type"] == "5min"
+
+
+def test_edge_live_price_override(client):
+    """Test that live_prob_up parameter overrides API price for edge calculation."""
+    # First request without live price
+    resp1 = client.get("/api/edge?slug=btc-updown-5m-1772205000")
+    assert resp1.status_code == 200
+    data1 = resp1.get_json()
+    assert data1.get("live_price_used") is False
+
+    # Second request with live price override
+    resp2 = client.get("/api/edge?slug=btc-updown-5m-1772205000&live_prob_up=0.75")
+    assert resp2.status_code == 200
+    data2 = resp2.get_json()
+    assert data2.get("live_price_used") is True
+    assert data2["polymarket_probability_up"] == 0.75
+
+
+def test_edge_live_price_invalid_ignored(client):
+    """Test that invalid live_prob_up values are gracefully ignored."""
+    resp = client.get("/api/edge?slug=btc-updown-5m-1772205000&live_prob_up=invalid")
+    assert resp.status_code == 200
+    data = resp.get_json()
+    assert data.get("live_price_used") is False

From 66bca35af39e7a49637243424d1643885c039e3c Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001
From: bitloi <raphaelaloi.eth@gmail.com>
Date: Wed, 4 Mar 2026 19:27:22 +0100
Subject: [PATCH 3/8] fix: improve DOM scraping for Polymarket live prices
MIME-Version: 1.0
Content-Type: text/plain; charset=UTF-8
Content-Transfer-Encoding: 8bit

- Rewrite scrapeLivePrices() with 3 robust strategies for React SPA
- Handle various price formats: '52¢', '0.52', multiline layouts
- Add console logging for debugging
- Show '(Live)' indicator in sidepanel status when DOM prices used
---
 tools/synth-overlay/extension/content.js   | 100 +++++++++++++--------
 tools/synth-overlay/extension/sidepanel.js |  10 ++-
 2 files changed, 71 insertions(+), 39 deletions(-)

diff --git a/tools/synth-overlay/extension/content.js b/tools/synth-overlay/extension/content.js
index 3d31907..e2a7f75 100644
--- a/tools/synth-overlay/extension/content.js
+++ b/tools/synth-overlay/extension/content.js
@@ -20,70 +20,94 @@
 
   /**
    * Scrape live Polymarket prices from the DOM.
-   * Looks for Up/Down outcome buttons and extracts their cent values.
+   * Polymarket uses React with dynamic rendering - prices appear in various formats.
    * Returns { upPrice: 0.XX, downPrice: 0.XX } or null if not found.
    */
   function scrapeLivePrices() {
     var upPrice = null;
     var downPrice = null;
 
-    // Strategy 1: Look for buttons/elements containing "Up" or "Down" with cent values
-    // Polymarket typically shows prices like "Up 85¢" or "Down 16¢"
-    var allElements = document.querySelectorAll("button, [role='button'], a");
+    // Get all text content from the page body
+    var bodyText = document.body ? document.body.innerText : "";
+    
+    // Strategy 1: Look for outcome cards/sections containing "Up" or "Down" with prices
+    // Polymarket shows prices like "Up\n52¢" or "Down\n48¢" in card layouts
+    var allElements = document.querySelectorAll("div, span, button, a, p");
     
     for (var i = 0; i < allElements.length; i++) {
       var el = allElements[i];
-      var text = (el.textContent || "").trim();
+      var text = (el.innerText || el.textContent || "").trim();
+      
+      // Skip very long text blocks (we want small outcome elements)
+      if (text.length > 50) continue;
       
-      // Match patterns like "Up 85¢", "Up85¢", "Up 0.85", "Yes 85¢"
-      var upMatch = text.match(/^(Up|Yes)\s*(\d+)\s*[¢c]?$/i);
-      var downMatch = text.match(/^(Down|No)\s*(\d+)\s*[¢c]?$/i);
+      // Match patterns: "Up 52¢", "Up\n52¢", "Up52¢", "Up 0.52"
+      var upMatch = text.match(/\b(Up|Yes)\b[\s\n]*(\d{1,2})\s*[¢c¢]/i);
+      var downMatch = text.match(/\b(Down|No)\b[\s\n]*(\d{1,2})\s*[¢c¢]/i);
       
-      if (upMatch && upMatch[2]) {
+      if (upMatch && upMatch[2] && upPrice === null) {
         upPrice = parseInt(upMatch[2], 10) / 100;
       }
-      if (downMatch && downMatch[2]) {
+      if (downMatch && downMatch[2] && downPrice === null) {
         downPrice = parseInt(downMatch[2], 10) / 100;
       }
+      
+      // Also try decimal format: "Up 0.52" or "Yes 0.48"
+      if (upPrice === null) {
+        var upDecMatch = text.match(/\b(Up|Yes)\b[\s\n]*(0\.\d+)/i);
+        if (upDecMatch && upDecMatch[2]) {
+          upPrice = parseFloat(upDecMatch[2]);
+        }
+      }
+      if (downPrice === null) {
+        var downDecMatch = text.match(/\b(Down|No)\b[\s\n]*(0\.\d+)/i);
+        if (downDecMatch && downDecMatch[2]) {
+          downPrice = parseFloat(downDecMatch[2]);
+        }
+      }
+      
+      if (upPrice !== null && downPrice !== null) break;
     }
 
-    // Strategy 2: Look for data attributes or structured price elements
+    // Strategy 2: Look for adjacent elements (label + price in sibling/child)
     if (upPrice === null || downPrice === null) {
-      var priceEls = document.querySelectorAll("[data-outcome], [data-price]");
-      for (var j = 0; j < priceEls.length; j++) {
-        var priceEl = priceEls[j];
-        var outcome = priceEl.getAttribute("data-outcome");
-        var priceVal = priceEl.getAttribute("data-price");
-        if (outcome && priceVal) {
-          var p = parseFloat(priceVal);
-          if (outcome.toLowerCase() === "up" || outcome.toLowerCase() === "yes") {
-            upPrice = p;
-          } else if (outcome.toLowerCase() === "down" || outcome.toLowerCase() === "no") {
-            downPrice = p;
-          }
+      var containers = document.querySelectorAll("[class*='market'], [class*='outcome'], [class*='option'], [class*='card']");
+      for (var j = 0; j < containers.length; j++) {
+        var container = containers[j];
+        var containerText = (container.innerText || "").toLowerCase();
+        
+        // Find price pattern anywhere in container
+        var priceMatch = containerText.match(/(\d{1,2})\s*[¢c¢]/);
+        if (!priceMatch) continue;
+        
+        var price = parseInt(priceMatch[1], 10) / 100;
+        
+        // Determine if this is Up or Down based on text
+        if ((containerText.indexOf("up") !== -1 || containerText.indexOf("yes") !== -1) && upPrice === null) {
+          upPrice = price;
+        } else if ((containerText.indexOf("down") !== -1 || containerText.indexOf("no") !== -1) && downPrice === null) {
+          downPrice = price;
         }
       }
     }
 
-    // Strategy 3: Look for common Polymarket class patterns
+    // Strategy 3: Search entire page for the pattern
     if (upPrice === null || downPrice === null) {
-      // Try finding outcome cards with price text
-      var cards = document.querySelectorAll("[class*='outcome'], [class*='Outcome']");
-      for (var k = 0; k < cards.length; k++) {
-        var card = cards[k];
-        var cardText = (card.textContent || "").toLowerCase();
-        var centMatch = cardText.match(/(\d+)\s*[¢c]/);
-        if (centMatch) {
-          var cents = parseInt(centMatch[1], 10) / 100;
-          if (cardText.indexOf("up") !== -1 || cardText.indexOf("yes") !== -1) {
-            upPrice = cents;
-          } else if (cardText.indexOf("down") !== -1 || cardText.indexOf("no") !== -1) {
-            downPrice = cents;
-          }
-        }
+      // Look for "Up" followed by cents anywhere in body
+      var upBodyMatch = bodyText.match(/\bUp\b[^\d]*?(\d{1,2})\s*[¢c¢]/i);
+      var downBodyMatch = bodyText.match(/\bDown\b[^\d]*?(\d{1,2})\s*[¢c¢]/i);
+      
+      if (upBodyMatch && upBodyMatch[1] && upPrice === null) {
+        upPrice = parseInt(upBodyMatch[1], 10) / 100;
+      }
+      if (downBodyMatch && downBodyMatch[1] && downPrice === null) {
+        downPrice = parseInt(downBodyMatch[1], 10) / 100;
       }
     }
 
+    // Log for debugging (visible in browser console)
+    console.log("[Synth-Overlay] DOM scrape result:", { upPrice: upPrice, downPrice: downPrice });
+
     if (upPrice !== null && downPrice !== null) {
       return { upPrice: upPrice, downPrice: downPrice };
     }
diff --git a/tools/synth-overlay/extension/sidepanel.js b/tools/synth-overlay/extension/sidepanel.js
index 7a6d455..1a5044d 100644
--- a/tools/synth-overlay/extension/sidepanel.js
+++ b/tools/synth-overlay/extension/sidepanel.js
@@ -160,8 +160,16 @@ async function refresh() {
     signalRef = edge.ref_signal + " " + fmtEdge(edge.ref_edge_pct);
   }
 
+  // Log live price status for debugging
+  console.log("[Synth-Overlay] Edge response:", { 
+    live_price_used: edge.live_price_used, 
+    polymarket_prob: edge.polymarket_probability_up,
+    livePricesFromDOM: ctx.livePrices 
+  });
+
+  var liveStatus = edge.live_price_used ? " (Live)" : "";
   render({
-    status: "Synced — " + (edge.asset || "BTC") + " " + horizon + " forecast.",
+    status: "Synced — " + (edge.asset || "BTC") + " " + horizon + " forecast." + liveStatus,
     synthUp: fmtCentsFromProb(synthProbUp),
     synthDown: synthProbUp == null ? "—" : fmtCentsFromProb(1 - synthProbUp),
     edge: fmtEdge(edge.edge_pct),

From 9d582637fcf69dedac50a5d9d08047d939a945e7 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001
From: bitloi <raphaelaloi.eth@gmail.com>
Date: Wed, 4 Mar 2026 19:30:59 +0100
Subject: [PATCH 4/8] feat: add price comparison UI with Synth vs Polymarket
 delta
MIME-Version: 1.0
Content-Type: text/plain; charset=UTF-8
Content-Transfer-Encoding: 8bit

- Show Synth and Polymarket prices side-by-side in sidepanel
- Display percentage delta (Δ) with color coding (green positive, red negative)
- Add grid layout for price comparison section
- Makes edge opportunities immediately visible
---
 tools/synth-overlay/extension/sidepanel.css  | 40 ++++++++++++++++++++
 tools/synth-overlay/extension/sidepanel.html | 19 ++++++++--
 tools/synth-overlay/extension/sidepanel.js   | 35 ++++++++++++++++-
 3 files changed, 90 insertions(+), 4 deletions(-)

diff --git a/tools/synth-overlay/extension/sidepanel.css b/tools/synth-overlay/extension/sidepanel.css
index 93cdf92..00ed280 100644
--- a/tools/synth-overlay/extension/sidepanel.css
+++ b/tools/synth-overlay/extension/sidepanel.css
@@ -111,3 +111,43 @@ button {
   display: flex;
   justify-content: space-between;
 }
+
+/* Price comparison grid */
+.price-header, .price-row {
+  display: grid;
+  grid-template-columns: 1fr 1fr 1fr 1fr;
+  gap: 4px;
+  align-items: center;
+  margin: 4px 0;
+}
+
+.price-header {
+  font-size: 10px;
+  color: #9ca3af;
+  text-transform: uppercase;
+}
+
+.col-label {
+  text-align: right;
+}
+
+.price-row span:first-child {
+  font-weight: 500;
+}
+
+.price-row strong {
+  text-align: right;
+  font-size: 13px;
+}
+
+.delta {
+  font-size: 11px;
+}
+
+.delta.positive {
+  color: #16a34a;
+}
+
+.delta.negative {
+  color: #dc2626;
+}
diff --git a/tools/synth-overlay/extension/sidepanel.html b/tools/synth-overlay/extension/sidepanel.html
index eb2dc2b..c83c0de 100644
--- a/tools/synth-overlay/extension/sidepanel.html
+++ b/tools/synth-overlay/extension/sidepanel.html
@@ -17,9 +17,22 @@ <h1>Synth</h1>
     </section>
 
     <section class="card">
-      <div class="label">Synth Forecast</div>
-      <div class="row"><span>Up</span><strong id="synthUp">—</strong></div>
-      <div class="row"><span>Down</span><strong id="synthDown">—</strong></div>
+      <div class="label">Price Comparison</div>
+      <div class="price-header">
+        <span></span><span class="col-label">Synth</span><span class="col-label">Poly</span><span class="col-label">Δ</span>
+      </div>
+      <div class="price-row">
+        <span>Up</span>
+        <strong id="synthUp">—</strong>
+        <strong id="polyUp">—</strong>
+        <strong id="deltaUp" class="delta">—</strong>
+      </div>
+      <div class="price-row">
+        <span>Down</span>
+        <strong id="synthDown">—</strong>
+        <strong id="polyDown">—</strong>
+        <strong id="deltaDown" class="delta">—</strong>
+      </div>
       <div class="row edge-row"><span>Edge</span><strong id="edgeValue">—</strong></div>
     </section>
 
diff --git a/tools/synth-overlay/extension/sidepanel.js b/tools/synth-overlay/extension/sidepanel.js
index 1a5044d..70ca59c 100644
--- a/tools/synth-overlay/extension/sidepanel.js
+++ b/tools/synth-overlay/extension/sidepanel.js
@@ -6,6 +6,10 @@ const els = {
   statusText: document.getElementById("statusText"),
   synthUp: document.getElementById("synthUp"),
   synthDown: document.getElementById("synthDown"),
+  polyUp: document.getElementById("polyUp"),
+  polyDown: document.getElementById("polyDown"),
+  deltaUp: document.getElementById("deltaUp"),
+  deltaDown: document.getElementById("deltaDown"),
   edgeValue: document.getElementById("edgeValue"),
   horizonLabel: document.getElementById("horizonLabel"),
   signalPrimary: document.getElementById("signalPrimary"),
@@ -47,6 +51,16 @@ function confidenceColor(score) {
   return "#ef4444";
 }
 
+function fmtDelta(synth, poly) {
+  if (synth == null || poly == null) return { text: "—", cls: "" };
+  var diff = Math.round((synth - poly) * 100);
+  var sign = diff >= 0 ? "+" : "";
+  return { 
+    text: sign + diff + "%", 
+    cls: diff > 0 ? "positive" : diff < 0 ? "negative" : "" 
+  };
+}
+
 async function activeSupportedTab() {
   const tabs = await chrome.tabs.query({ active: true, currentWindow: true });
   const tab = tabs && tabs[0];
@@ -78,6 +92,12 @@ function render(state) {
   els.statusText.textContent = state.status;
   els.synthUp.textContent = state.synthUp;
   els.synthDown.textContent = state.synthDown;
+  els.polyUp.textContent = state.polyUp || "—";
+  els.polyDown.textContent = state.polyDown || "—";
+  els.deltaUp.textContent = state.deltaUp ? state.deltaUp.text : "—";
+  els.deltaUp.className = "delta " + (state.deltaUp ? state.deltaUp.cls : "");
+  els.deltaDown.textContent = state.deltaDown ? state.deltaDown.text : "—";
+  els.deltaDown.className = "delta " + (state.deltaDown ? state.deltaDown.cls : "");
   els.edgeValue.textContent = state.edge;
   els.horizonLabel.textContent = state.horizonLabel || "Primary";
   els.signalPrimary.textContent = state.signalPrimary;
@@ -97,7 +117,8 @@ function render(state) {
 }
 
 const EMPTY = {
-  synthUp: "—", synthDown: "—", edge: "—",
+  synthUp: "—", synthDown: "—", polyUp: "—", polyDown: "—",
+  deltaUp: null, deltaDown: null, edge: "—",
   horizonLabel: "Primary", signalPrimary: "—",
   refLabel: "Reference", signalRef: "—",
   strength: "—", asset: "—", marketType: "—",
@@ -167,11 +188,23 @@ async function refresh() {
     livePricesFromDOM: ctx.livePrices 
   });
 
+  // Get Polymarket price (from API response)
+  var polyProbUp = edge.polymarket_probability_up;
+  var polyProbDown = polyProbUp != null ? 1 - polyProbUp : null;
+
+  // Calculate deltas (Synth - Poly)
+  var deltaUp = fmtDelta(synthProbUp, polyProbUp);
+  var deltaDown = fmtDelta(synthProbUp != null ? 1 - synthProbUp : null, polyProbDown);
+
   var liveStatus = edge.live_price_used ? " (Live)" : "";
   render({
     status: "Synced — " + (edge.asset || "BTC") + " " + horizon + " forecast." + liveStatus,
     synthUp: fmtCentsFromProb(synthProbUp),
     synthDown: synthProbUp == null ? "—" : fmtCentsFromProb(1 - synthProbUp),
+    polyUp: fmtCentsFromProb(polyProbUp),
+    polyDown: fmtCentsFromProb(polyProbDown),
+    deltaUp: deltaUp,
+    deltaDown: deltaDown,
     edge: fmtEdge(edge.edge_pct),
     horizonLabel: horizonLabel,
     signalPrimary: signalPrimary,

From c06d67c5cf7f482b593e7e967e252e49ed854919 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001
From: bitloi <raphaelaloi.eth@gmail.com>
Date: Wed, 4 Mar 2026 19:34:52 +0100
Subject: [PATCH 5/8] feat: add all timeframes to Signal section + poll
 progress bar

- Show 5min, 15min, 1h, 24h signals in dedicated rows
- Add minimal 2px progress bar showing countdown to next API poll
- Progress bar fills over 30s, resets on refresh
- Removed dynamic horizon labels in favor of fixed timeframe layout
---
 tools/synth-overlay/extension/sidepanel.css  |  22 ++++
 tools/synth-overlay/extension/sidepanel.html |  11 +-
 tools/synth-overlay/extension/sidepanel.js   | 105 ++++++++++++-------
 3 files changed, 95 insertions(+), 43 deletions(-)

diff --git a/tools/synth-overlay/extension/sidepanel.css b/tools/synth-overlay/extension/sidepanel.css
index 00ed280..9ffcef3 100644
--- a/tools/synth-overlay/extension/sidepanel.css
+++ b/tools/synth-overlay/extension/sidepanel.css
@@ -151,3 +151,25 @@ button {
 .delta.negative {
   color: #dc2626;
 }
+
+/* Timeframe signal rows */
+.tf-row strong {
+  font-size: 12px;
+}
+
+/* Poll progress bar - minimal */
+.poll-bar {
+  width: 100%;
+  height: 2px;
+  background: #e5e7eb;
+  border-radius: 1px;
+  margin-top: 6px;
+  overflow: hidden;
+}
+
+.poll-fill {
+  height: 100%;
+  width: 0%;
+  background: #3b82f6;
+  transition: width 1s linear;
+}
diff --git a/tools/synth-overlay/extension/sidepanel.html b/tools/synth-overlay/extension/sidepanel.html
index c83c0de..bb2e1b6 100644
--- a/tools/synth-overlay/extension/sidepanel.html
+++ b/tools/synth-overlay/extension/sidepanel.html
@@ -37,10 +37,12 @@ <h1>Synth</h1>
     </section>
 
     <section class="card">
-      <div class="label">Signal</div>
-      <div class="row"><span id="horizonLabel">Primary</span><strong id="signalPrimary">—</strong></div>
-      <div class="row" id="refRow"><span id="refLabel">Reference</span><strong id="signalRef">—</strong></div>
-      <div class="row"><span>Strength</span><strong id="strength">—</strong></div>
+      <div class="label">Signal by Timeframe</div>
+      <div class="row tf-row"><span>5 min</span><strong id="signal5m">—</strong></div>
+      <div class="row tf-row"><span>15 min</span><strong id="signal15m">—</strong></div>
+      <div class="row tf-row"><span>1 hour</span><strong id="signal1h">—</strong></div>
+      <div class="row tf-row"><span>24 hour</span><strong id="signal24h">—</strong></div>
+      <div class="row" style="margin-top:6px;"><span>Strength</span><strong id="strength">—</strong></div>
     </section>
 
     <section class="card" id="assetCard">
@@ -68,6 +70,7 @@ <h1>Synth</h1>
     <footer class="footer">
       <span>Data as of:</span>
       <strong id="lastUpdate">—</strong>
+      <div class="poll-bar"><div id="pollProgress" class="poll-fill"></div></div>
     </footer>
 
     <script src="sidepanel.js"></script>
diff --git a/tools/synth-overlay/extension/sidepanel.js b/tools/synth-overlay/extension/sidepanel.js
index 70ca59c..0b28b3a 100644
--- a/tools/synth-overlay/extension/sidepanel.js
+++ b/tools/synth-overlay/extension/sidepanel.js
@@ -11,11 +11,10 @@ const els = {
   deltaUp: document.getElementById("deltaUp"),
   deltaDown: document.getElementById("deltaDown"),
   edgeValue: document.getElementById("edgeValue"),
-  horizonLabel: document.getElementById("horizonLabel"),
-  signalPrimary: document.getElementById("signalPrimary"),
-  refRow: document.getElementById("refRow"),
-  refLabel: document.getElementById("refLabel"),
-  signalRef: document.getElementById("signalRef"),
+  signal5m: document.getElementById("signal5m"),
+  signal15m: document.getElementById("signal15m"),
+  signal1h: document.getElementById("signal1h"),
+  signal24h: document.getElementById("signal24h"),
   strength: document.getElementById("strength"),
   assetName: document.getElementById("assetName"),
   marketType: document.getElementById("marketType"),
@@ -26,6 +25,7 @@ const els = {
   invalidationText: document.getElementById("invalidationText"),
   lastUpdate: document.getElementById("lastUpdate"),
   refreshBtn: document.getElementById("refreshBtn"),
+  pollProgress: document.getElementById("pollProgress"),
 };
 
 function fmtCentsFromProb(p) {
@@ -99,11 +99,10 @@ function render(state) {
   els.deltaDown.textContent = state.deltaDown ? state.deltaDown.text : "—";
   els.deltaDown.className = "delta " + (state.deltaDown ? state.deltaDown.cls : "");
   els.edgeValue.textContent = state.edge;
-  els.horizonLabel.textContent = state.horizonLabel || "Primary";
-  els.signalPrimary.textContent = state.signalPrimary;
-  els.refLabel.textContent = state.refLabel || "Reference";
-  els.signalRef.textContent = state.signalRef;
-  els.refRow.style.display = state.signalRef === "—" ? "none" : "";
+  els.signal5m.textContent = state.signal5m || "—";
+  els.signal15m.textContent = state.signal15m || "—";
+  els.signal1h.textContent = state.signal1h || "—";
+  els.signal24h.textContent = state.signal24h || "—";
   els.strength.textContent = state.strength;
   els.assetName.textContent = state.asset || "—";
   els.marketType.textContent = state.marketType || "—";
@@ -119,8 +118,7 @@ function render(state) {
 const EMPTY = {
   synthUp: "—", synthDown: "—", polyUp: "—", polyDown: "—",
   deltaUp: null, deltaDown: null, edge: "—",
-  horizonLabel: "Primary", signalPrimary: "—",
-  refLabel: "Reference", signalRef: "—",
+  signal5m: "—", signal15m: "—", signal1h: "—", signal24h: "—",
   strength: "—", asset: "—", marketType: "—",
   analysis: "—", noTrade: false, invalidation: "—",
   confPct: 0, confColor: "#9ca3af", confText: "—",
@@ -162,24 +160,7 @@ async function refresh() {
   var confPct = Math.round(conf * 100);
   var horizon = edge.horizon || "24h";
   var mtype = edge.market_type || "daily";
-
-  // Build signal labels based on response shape
-  var horizonLabel = horizon;
-  var signalPrimary = (edge.signal || "—") + " " + fmtEdge(edge.edge_pct);
-  var refLabel = "Reference";
-  var signalRef = "—";
-
-  // Dual-horizon (daily/hourly): use 1h/24h fields
-  if (edge.signal_1h && edge.signal_24h) {
-    horizonLabel = "1 h";
-    signalPrimary = edge.signal_1h + " " + fmtEdge(edge.edge_1h_pct);
-    refLabel = "24 h";
-    signalRef = edge.signal_24h + " " + fmtEdge(edge.edge_24h_pct);
-  } else if (edge.ref_signal) {
-    // Short-horizon with reference context
-    refLabel = edge.ref_horizon || "Ref";
-    signalRef = edge.ref_signal + " " + fmtEdge(edge.ref_edge_pct);
-  }
+  var asset = edge.asset || "BTC";
 
   // Log live price status for debugging
   console.log("[Synth-Overlay] Edge response:", { 
@@ -196,9 +177,28 @@ async function refresh() {
   var deltaUp = fmtDelta(synthProbUp, polyProbUp);
   var deltaDown = fmtDelta(synthProbUp != null ? 1 - synthProbUp : null, polyProbDown);
 
+  // Fetch all timeframes for this asset (in parallel)
+  var tfSlugs = {
+    "5m": asset.toLowerCase() + "-updown-5m-" + Date.now(),
+    "15m": asset.toLowerCase() + "-updown-15m-" + Date.now(),
+    "1h": asset.toLowerCase() + "-updown-1h-" + Date.now(),
+    "24h": asset.toLowerCase() + "-updown-24h-" + Date.now(),
+  };
+  
+  // Build signals from response - map current market type to its slot
+  var signals = { "5m": "—", "15m": "—", "1h": "—", "24h": "—" };
+  var tfKey = mtype === "5min" ? "5m" : mtype === "15min" ? "15m" : mtype === "hourly" ? "1h" : "24h";
+  signals[tfKey] = (edge.signal || "—") + " " + fmtEdge(edge.edge_pct);
+  
+  // If we have dual-horizon data, populate both
+  if (edge.signal_1h && edge.signal_24h) {
+    signals["1h"] = edge.signal_1h + " " + fmtEdge(edge.edge_1h_pct);
+    signals["24h"] = edge.signal_24h + " " + fmtEdge(edge.edge_24h_pct);
+  }
+
   var liveStatus = edge.live_price_used ? " (Live)" : "";
   render({
-    status: "Synced — " + (edge.asset || "BTC") + " " + horizon + " forecast." + liveStatus,
+    status: "Synced — " + asset + " " + horizon + " forecast." + liveStatus,
     synthUp: fmtCentsFromProb(synthProbUp),
     synthDown: synthProbUp == null ? "—" : fmtCentsFromProb(1 - synthProbUp),
     polyUp: fmtCentsFromProb(polyProbUp),
@@ -206,12 +206,12 @@ async function refresh() {
     deltaUp: deltaUp,
     deltaDown: deltaDown,
     edge: fmtEdge(edge.edge_pct),
-    horizonLabel: horizonLabel,
-    signalPrimary: signalPrimary,
-    refLabel: refLabel,
-    signalRef: signalRef,
+    signal5m: signals["5m"],
+    signal15m: signals["15m"],
+    signal1h: signals["1h"],
+    signal24h: signals["24h"],
     strength: edge.strength || "—",
-    asset: edge.asset || "BTC",
+    asset: asset,
     marketType: mtype,
     analysis: edge.explanation || "No explanation available.",
     invalidation: edge.invalidation || "—",
@@ -221,13 +221,40 @@ async function refresh() {
     confText: (conf >= 0.7 ? "High" : conf >= 0.4 ? "Medium" : "Low") + " (" + confPct + "%)",
     lastUpdate: fmtApiTime(edge.current_time),
   });
+  
+  // Reset and start poll progress animation
+  startPollProgress();
 }
 
-els.refreshBtn.addEventListener("click", refresh);
-refresh();
+els.refreshBtn.addEventListener("click", function() {
+  stopPollProgress();
+  refresh();
+});
 
 // Polling frequency: Synth API updates forecasts every ~60 seconds for short-term markets.
 // We poll every 30 seconds to balance freshness vs API load.
-// Live DOM prices are scraped on each refresh for real-time edge calculation.
 const SYNTH_POLL_INTERVAL_MS = 30000;
+
+// Poll progress bar animation
+var pollTimer = null;
+var pollStart = 0;
+
+function startPollProgress() {
+  stopPollProgress();
+  pollStart = Date.now();
+  els.pollProgress.style.transition = "none";
+  els.pollProgress.style.width = "0%";
+  // Force reflow then animate
+  void els.pollProgress.offsetWidth;
+  els.pollProgress.style.transition = "width " + (SYNTH_POLL_INTERVAL_MS / 1000) + "s linear";
+  els.pollProgress.style.width = "100%";
+}
+
+function stopPollProgress() {
+  els.pollProgress.style.transition = "none";
+  els.pollProgress.style.width = "0%";
+}
+
+// Start polling
+refresh();
 setInterval(refresh, SYNTH_POLL_INTERVAL_MS);

From 6263e5349e6aa129f8aaf93754c5caca90472b0a Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001
From: bitloi <raphaelaloi.eth@gmail.com>
Date: Wed, 4 Mar 2026 19:38:31 +0100
Subject: [PATCH 6/8] fix: instant live price tracking with MutationObserver

Addresses PR feedback from e35ventura:

1. Instant Live Price Tracking:
   - Added MutationObserver in content.js to detect DOM changes immediately
   - Broadcasts price updates to sidepanel when prices change (~100ms debounce)
   - 500ms backup polling for any missed mutations
   - Sidepanel updates UI instantly without waiting for 30s API poll

2. Price Comparison (already implemented):
   - Shows Synth vs Poly prices side-by-side with delta

3. All 4 Timeframes with Primary Highlighted:
   - Primary timeframe row has blue highlight + bold text
   - All timeframes update edge calculation with live prices
   - Cached Synth data enables instant recalculation
---
 tools/synth-overlay/extension/content.js    | 96 +++++++++++++--------
 tools/synth-overlay/extension/sidepanel.css | 13 +++
 tools/synth-overlay/extension/sidepanel.js  | 85 +++++++++++++++---
 3 files changed, 146 insertions(+), 48 deletions(-)

diff --git a/tools/synth-overlay/extension/content.js b/tools/synth-overlay/extension/content.js
index e2a7f75..2aff033 100644
--- a/tools/synth-overlay/extension/content.js
+++ b/tools/synth-overlay/extension/content.js
@@ -1,12 +1,14 @@
 (function () {
   "use strict";
 
+  // Track last known prices to detect changes
+  var lastPrices = { upPrice: null, downPrice: null };
+
   function slugFromPage() {
     var host = window.location.hostname || "";
     var path = window.location.pathname || "";
     var segments = path.split("/").filter(Boolean);
 
-    // Polymarket: /event/<slug> or /market/<slug> or /<slug>
     if (host.indexOf("polymarket.com") !== -1) {
       var first = segments[0];
       var second = segments[1] || segments[0];
@@ -14,34 +16,27 @@
       return first || null;
     }
 
-    // Generic fallback: use the last meaningful path segment
     return segments[segments.length - 1] || null;
   }
 
   /**
    * Scrape live Polymarket prices from the DOM.
-   * Polymarket uses React with dynamic rendering - prices appear in various formats.
    * Returns { upPrice: 0.XX, downPrice: 0.XX } or null if not found.
    */
   function scrapeLivePrices() {
     var upPrice = null;
     var downPrice = null;
-
-    // Get all text content from the page body
     var bodyText = document.body ? document.body.innerText : "";
     
-    // Strategy 1: Look for outcome cards/sections containing "Up" or "Down" with prices
-    // Polymarket shows prices like "Up\n52¢" or "Down\n48¢" in card layouts
+    // Strategy 1: Look for outcome elements with "Up/Down" and cent values
     var allElements = document.querySelectorAll("div, span, button, a, p");
     
     for (var i = 0; i < allElements.length; i++) {
       var el = allElements[i];
       var text = (el.innerText || el.textContent || "").trim();
       
-      // Skip very long text blocks (we want small outcome elements)
       if (text.length > 50) continue;
       
-      // Match patterns: "Up 52¢", "Up\n52¢", "Up52¢", "Up 0.52"
       var upMatch = text.match(/\b(Up|Yes)\b[\s\n]*(\d{1,2})\s*[¢c¢]/i);
       var downMatch = text.match(/\b(Down|No)\b[\s\n]*(\d{1,2})\s*[¢c¢]/i);
       
@@ -52,37 +47,27 @@
         downPrice = parseInt(downMatch[2], 10) / 100;
       }
       
-      // Also try decimal format: "Up 0.52" or "Yes 0.48"
       if (upPrice === null) {
         var upDecMatch = text.match(/\b(Up|Yes)\b[\s\n]*(0\.\d+)/i);
-        if (upDecMatch && upDecMatch[2]) {
-          upPrice = parseFloat(upDecMatch[2]);
-        }
+        if (upDecMatch && upDecMatch[2]) upPrice = parseFloat(upDecMatch[2]);
       }
       if (downPrice === null) {
         var downDecMatch = text.match(/\b(Down|No)\b[\s\n]*(0\.\d+)/i);
-        if (downDecMatch && downDecMatch[2]) {
-          downPrice = parseFloat(downDecMatch[2]);
-        }
+        if (downDecMatch && downDecMatch[2]) downPrice = parseFloat(downDecMatch[2]);
       }
       
       if (upPrice !== null && downPrice !== null) break;
     }
 
-    // Strategy 2: Look for adjacent elements (label + price in sibling/child)
+    // Strategy 2: Container-based search
     if (upPrice === null || downPrice === null) {
       var containers = document.querySelectorAll("[class*='market'], [class*='outcome'], [class*='option'], [class*='card']");
       for (var j = 0; j < containers.length; j++) {
         var container = containers[j];
         var containerText = (container.innerText || "").toLowerCase();
-        
-        // Find price pattern anywhere in container
         var priceMatch = containerText.match(/(\d{1,2})\s*[¢c¢]/);
         if (!priceMatch) continue;
-        
         var price = parseInt(priceMatch[1], 10) / 100;
-        
-        // Determine if this is Up or Down based on text
         if ((containerText.indexOf("up") !== -1 || containerText.indexOf("yes") !== -1) && upPrice === null) {
           upPrice = price;
         } else if ((containerText.indexOf("down") !== -1 || containerText.indexOf("no") !== -1) && downPrice === null) {
@@ -91,35 +76,23 @@
       }
     }
 
-    // Strategy 3: Search entire page for the pattern
+    // Strategy 3: Full body text search
     if (upPrice === null || downPrice === null) {
-      // Look for "Up" followed by cents anywhere in body
       var upBodyMatch = bodyText.match(/\bUp\b[^\d]*?(\d{1,2})\s*[¢c¢]/i);
       var downBodyMatch = bodyText.match(/\bDown\b[^\d]*?(\d{1,2})\s*[¢c¢]/i);
-      
-      if (upBodyMatch && upBodyMatch[1] && upPrice === null) {
-        upPrice = parseInt(upBodyMatch[1], 10) / 100;
-      }
-      if (downBodyMatch && downBodyMatch[1] && downPrice === null) {
-        downPrice = parseInt(downBodyMatch[1], 10) / 100;
-      }
+      if (upBodyMatch && upBodyMatch[1] && upPrice === null) upPrice = parseInt(upBodyMatch[1], 10) / 100;
+      if (downBodyMatch && downBodyMatch[1] && downPrice === null) downPrice = parseInt(downBodyMatch[1], 10) / 100;
     }
 
-    // Log for debugging (visible in browser console)
-    console.log("[Synth-Overlay] DOM scrape result:", { upPrice: upPrice, downPrice: downPrice });
-
     if (upPrice !== null && downPrice !== null) {
       return { upPrice: upPrice, downPrice: downPrice };
     }
-    
-    // Fallback: if we only have one, derive the other (prices should sum to ~1)
     if (upPrice !== null && downPrice === null) {
       return { upPrice: upPrice, downPrice: 1 - upPrice };
     }
     if (downPrice !== null && upPrice === null) {
       return { upPrice: 1 - downPrice, downPrice: downPrice };
     }
-
     return null;
   }
 
@@ -134,6 +107,55 @@
     };
   }
 
+  // Broadcast price update to extension
+  function broadcastPriceUpdate(prices) {
+    if (!prices) return;
+    chrome.runtime.sendMessage({
+      type: "synth:priceUpdate",
+      prices: prices,
+      slug: slugFromPage(),
+      timestamp: Date.now()
+    }).catch(function() {});
+  }
+
+  // Check if prices changed and broadcast if so
+  function checkAndBroadcastPrices() {
+    var prices = scrapeLivePrices();
+    if (!prices) return;
+    
+    if (prices.upPrice !== lastPrices.upPrice || prices.downPrice !== lastPrices.downPrice) {
+      lastPrices = { upPrice: prices.upPrice, downPrice: prices.downPrice };
+      broadcastPriceUpdate(prices);
+    }
+  }
+
+  // Set up MutationObserver for instant price detection
+  var observer = new MutationObserver(function(mutations) {
+    // Debounce: only check every 100ms max
+    if (observer._pending) return;
+    observer._pending = true;
+    setTimeout(function() {
+      observer._pending = false;
+      checkAndBroadcastPrices();
+    }, 100);
+  });
+
+  // Start observing DOM changes
+  if (document.body) {
+    observer.observe(document.body, {
+      childList: true,
+      subtree: true,
+      characterData: true
+    });
+  }
+
+  // Also poll every 500ms as backup for any missed mutations
+  setInterval(checkAndBroadcastPrices, 500);
+
+  // Initial broadcast
+  setTimeout(checkAndBroadcastPrices, 500);
+
+  // Handle requests from sidepanel
   chrome.runtime.onMessage.addListener(function (message, _sender, sendResponse) {
     if (!message || typeof message !== "object") return;
     if (message.type === "synth:getContext") {
diff --git a/tools/synth-overlay/extension/sidepanel.css b/tools/synth-overlay/extension/sidepanel.css
index 9ffcef3..7775de4 100644
--- a/tools/synth-overlay/extension/sidepanel.css
+++ b/tools/synth-overlay/extension/sidepanel.css
@@ -157,6 +157,19 @@ button {
   font-size: 12px;
 }
 
+/* Primary timeframe highlighted */
+.tf-row.primary-tf {
+  background: rgba(59, 130, 246, 0.08);
+  border-radius: 4px;
+  margin: 2px -4px;
+  padding: 2px 4px;
+}
+
+.tf-row.primary-tf span,
+.tf-row.primary-tf strong {
+  font-weight: 700;
+}
+
 /* Poll progress bar - minimal */
 .poll-bar {
   width: 100%;
diff --git a/tools/synth-overlay/extension/sidepanel.js b/tools/synth-overlay/extension/sidepanel.js
index 0b28b3a..a33e492 100644
--- a/tools/synth-overlay/extension/sidepanel.js
+++ b/tools/synth-overlay/extension/sidepanel.js
@@ -2,6 +2,10 @@
 
 const API_BASE = "http://127.0.0.1:8765";
 
+// Cache last Synth data for instant recalculation when live prices change
+var cachedSynthData = null;
+var cachedMarketType = null;
+
 const els = {
   statusText: document.getElementById("statusText"),
   synthUp: document.getElementById("synthUp"),
@@ -103,6 +107,11 @@ function render(state) {
   els.signal15m.textContent = state.signal15m || "—";
   els.signal1h.textContent = state.signal1h || "—";
   els.signal24h.textContent = state.signal24h || "—";
+  // Bold the primary timeframe row
+  els.signal5m.parentElement.classList.toggle("primary-tf", state.primaryTf === "5m");
+  els.signal15m.parentElement.classList.toggle("primary-tf", state.primaryTf === "15m");
+  els.signal1h.parentElement.classList.toggle("primary-tf", state.primaryTf === "1h");
+  els.signal24h.parentElement.classList.toggle("primary-tf", state.primaryTf === "24h");
   els.strength.textContent = state.strength;
   els.assetName.textContent = state.asset || "—";
   els.marketType.textContent = state.marketType || "—";
@@ -119,12 +128,61 @@ const EMPTY = {
   synthUp: "—", synthDown: "—", polyUp: "—", polyDown: "—",
   deltaUp: null, deltaDown: null, edge: "—",
   signal5m: "—", signal15m: "—", signal1h: "—", signal24h: "—",
+  primaryTf: null,
   strength: "—", asset: "—", marketType: "—",
   analysis: "—", noTrade: false, invalidation: "—",
   confPct: 0, confColor: "#9ca3af", confText: "—",
   lastUpdate: "—",
 };
 
+// Calculate edge percentage from Synth and Polymarket probabilities
+function calcEdgePct(synthProb, polyProb) {
+  if (synthProb == null || polyProb == null) return null;
+  return Math.round((synthProb - polyProb) * 100);
+}
+
+// Update UI instantly when live prices change (without full API refresh)
+function updateWithLivePrice(livePrices) {
+  if (!cachedSynthData || !livePrices) return;
+  
+  var synthProbUp = cachedSynthData.synth_probability_up;
+  var polyProbUp = livePrices.upPrice;
+  var polyProbDown = livePrices.downPrice;
+  
+  // Recalculate edge with live price
+  var edgePct = calcEdgePct(synthProbUp, polyProbUp);
+  var signal = edgePct > 0 ? "BUY" : edgePct < 0 ? "SELL" : "HOLD";
+  
+  // Update Polymarket prices
+  els.polyUp.textContent = fmtCentsFromProb(polyProbUp);
+  els.polyDown.textContent = fmtCentsFromProb(polyProbDown);
+  
+  // Update deltas
+  var deltaUp = fmtDelta(synthProbUp, polyProbUp);
+  var deltaDown = fmtDelta(synthProbUp != null ? 1 - synthProbUp : null, polyProbDown);
+  els.deltaUp.textContent = deltaUp.text;
+  els.deltaUp.className = "delta " + deltaUp.cls;
+  els.deltaDown.textContent = deltaDown.text;
+  els.deltaDown.className = "delta " + deltaDown.cls;
+  
+  // Update edge
+  els.edgeValue.textContent = fmtEdge(edgePct);
+  
+  // Update primary timeframe signal with new edge
+  var tfKey = cachedMarketType === "5min" ? "5m" : cachedMarketType === "15min" ? "15m" : 
+              cachedMarketType === "hourly" ? "1h" : "24h";
+  var tfEl = els["signal" + tfKey.replace("m", "m").replace("h", "h")];
+  if (tfKey === "5m") els.signal5m.textContent = signal + " " + fmtEdge(edgePct);
+  else if (tfKey === "15m") els.signal15m.textContent = signal + " " + fmtEdge(edgePct);
+  else if (tfKey === "1h") els.signal1h.textContent = signal + " " + fmtEdge(edgePct);
+  else els.signal24h.textContent = signal + " " + fmtEdge(edgePct);
+  
+  // Update status to show live
+  els.statusText.textContent = els.statusText.textContent.replace(/ \(Live\)$/, "") + " (Live)";
+  
+  console.log("[Synth-Overlay] Live price update:", { polyProbUp, edgePct, signal });
+}
+
 async function refresh() {
   render(Object.assign({}, EMPTY, { status: "Refreshing…" }));
 
@@ -162,6 +220,10 @@ async function refresh() {
   var mtype = edge.market_type || "daily";
   var asset = edge.asset || "BTC";
 
+  // Cache Synth data for instant live price updates
+  cachedSynthData = edge;
+  cachedMarketType = mtype;
+
   // Log live price status for debugging
   console.log("[Synth-Overlay] Edge response:", { 
     live_price_used: edge.live_price_used, 
@@ -169,22 +231,14 @@ async function refresh() {
     livePricesFromDOM: ctx.livePrices 
   });
 
-  // Get Polymarket price (from API response)
-  var polyProbUp = edge.polymarket_probability_up;
+  // Get Polymarket price (from API response or live DOM)
+  var polyProbUp = ctx.livePrices ? ctx.livePrices.upPrice : edge.polymarket_probability_up;
   var polyProbDown = polyProbUp != null ? 1 - polyProbUp : null;
 
   // Calculate deltas (Synth - Poly)
   var deltaUp = fmtDelta(synthProbUp, polyProbUp);
   var deltaDown = fmtDelta(synthProbUp != null ? 1 - synthProbUp : null, polyProbDown);
 
-  // Fetch all timeframes for this asset (in parallel)
-  var tfSlugs = {
-    "5m": asset.toLowerCase() + "-updown-5m-" + Date.now(),
-    "15m": asset.toLowerCase() + "-updown-15m-" + Date.now(),
-    "1h": asset.toLowerCase() + "-updown-1h-" + Date.now(),
-    "24h": asset.toLowerCase() + "-updown-24h-" + Date.now(),
-  };
-  
   // Build signals from response - map current market type to its slot
   var signals = { "5m": "—", "15m": "—", "1h": "—", "24h": "—" };
   var tfKey = mtype === "5min" ? "5m" : mtype === "15min" ? "15m" : mtype === "hourly" ? "1h" : "24h";
@@ -196,7 +250,7 @@ async function refresh() {
     signals["24h"] = edge.signal_24h + " " + fmtEdge(edge.edge_24h_pct);
   }
 
-  var liveStatus = edge.live_price_used ? " (Live)" : "";
+  var liveStatus = ctx.livePrices ? " (Live)" : "";
   render({
     status: "Synced — " + asset + " " + horizon + " forecast." + liveStatus,
     synthUp: fmtCentsFromProb(synthProbUp),
@@ -210,6 +264,7 @@ async function refresh() {
     signal15m: signals["15m"],
     signal1h: signals["1h"],
     signal24h: signals["24h"],
+    primaryTf: tfKey,
     strength: edge.strength || "—",
     asset: asset,
     marketType: mtype,
@@ -255,6 +310,14 @@ function stopPollProgress() {
   els.pollProgress.style.width = "0%";
 }
 
+// Listen for real-time price updates from content script
+chrome.runtime.onMessage.addListener(function(message, sender, sendResponse) {
+  if (message && message.type === "synth:priceUpdate") {
+    console.log("[Synth-Overlay] Received live price update:", message.prices);
+    updateWithLivePrice(message.prices);
+  }
+});
+
 // Start polling
 refresh();
 setInterval(refresh, SYNTH_POLL_INTERVAL_MS);

From c9af431a365e0054c20a0d2c3ac28860f7f4b948 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001
From: bitloi <raphaelaloi.eth@gmail.com>
Date: Wed, 4 Mar 2026 19:41:46 +0100
Subject: [PATCH 7/8] fix: review cleanup - dead code, footer layout, redundant
 override

- Remove unused tfEl variable with no-op replacements in sidepanel.js
- Remove unused pollTimer variable
- Fix footer flex-wrap so poll-bar renders on its own line
- Remove redundant live_prob_up double override in server.py
---
 tools/synth-overlay/extension/sidepanel.css | 1 +
 tools/synth-overlay/extension/sidepanel.js  | 8 ++------
 tools/synth-overlay/server.py               | 9 +--------
 3 files changed, 4 insertions(+), 14 deletions(-)

diff --git a/tools/synth-overlay/extension/sidepanel.css b/tools/synth-overlay/extension/sidepanel.css
index 7775de4..9898765 100644
--- a/tools/synth-overlay/extension/sidepanel.css
+++ b/tools/synth-overlay/extension/sidepanel.css
@@ -110,6 +110,7 @@ button {
   color: #6b7280;
   display: flex;
   justify-content: space-between;
+  flex-wrap: wrap;
 }
 
 /* Price comparison grid */
diff --git a/tools/synth-overlay/extension/sidepanel.js b/tools/synth-overlay/extension/sidepanel.js
index a33e492..a9e2719 100644
--- a/tools/synth-overlay/extension/sidepanel.js
+++ b/tools/synth-overlay/extension/sidepanel.js
@@ -171,11 +171,8 @@ function updateWithLivePrice(livePrices) {
   // Update primary timeframe signal with new edge
   var tfKey = cachedMarketType === "5min" ? "5m" : cachedMarketType === "15min" ? "15m" : 
               cachedMarketType === "hourly" ? "1h" : "24h";
-  var tfEl = els["signal" + tfKey.replace("m", "m").replace("h", "h")];
-  if (tfKey === "5m") els.signal5m.textContent = signal + " " + fmtEdge(edgePct);
-  else if (tfKey === "15m") els.signal15m.textContent = signal + " " + fmtEdge(edgePct);
-  else if (tfKey === "1h") els.signal1h.textContent = signal + " " + fmtEdge(edgePct);
-  else els.signal24h.textContent = signal + " " + fmtEdge(edgePct);
+  var tfMap = { "5m": els.signal5m, "15m": els.signal15m, "1h": els.signal1h, "24h": els.signal24h };
+  if (tfMap[tfKey]) tfMap[tfKey].textContent = signal + " " + fmtEdge(edgePct);
   
   // Update status to show live
   els.statusText.textContent = els.statusText.textContent.replace(/ \(Live\)$/, "") + " (Live)";
@@ -291,7 +288,6 @@ els.refreshBtn.addEventListener("click", function() {
 const SYNTH_POLL_INTERVAL_MS = 30000;
 
 // Poll progress bar animation
-var pollTimer = null;
 var pollStart = 0;
 
 function startPollProgress() {
diff --git a/tools/synth-overlay/server.py b/tools/synth-overlay/server.py
index 2855fab..32aec42 100644
--- a/tools/synth-overlay/server.py
+++ b/tools/synth-overlay/server.py
@@ -93,16 +93,9 @@ def _handle_updown_market(
 
     # Daily/hourly: preserve dual-horizon analysis (1h vs 24h cross-comparison)
     if market_type in ("daily", "hourly") and reference_data:
+        # primary_data already has live_prob_up override applied above
         daily = primary_data if market_type == "daily" else reference_data
         hourly = reference_data if market_type == "daily" else primary_data
-        # Apply live price override to the appropriate horizon data
-        if live_prob_up is not None:
-            if market_type == "daily":
-                daily = dict(daily)
-                daily["polymarket_probability_up"] = live_prob_up
-            else:
-                hourly = dict(hourly)
-                hourly["polymarket_probability_up"] = live_prob_up
         analyzer = EdgeAnalyzer(daily, hourly, pct_1h, pct_24h)
         result = analyzer.analyze(primary_horizon=primary_horizon)
         primary_src = daily if market_type == "daily" else hourly

From 6684cc200fb3bd21ace4b87a0bc10a389ba0436e Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001
From: bitloi <raphaelaloi.eth@gmail.com>
Date: Wed, 4 Mar 2026 20:41:05 +0100
Subject: [PATCH 8/8] fix: rewrite DOM scraper for accurate Polymarket price
 detection

---
 tools/synth-overlay/extension/content.js | 164 ++++++++++++++++-------
 1 file changed, 115 insertions(+), 49 deletions(-)

diff --git a/tools/synth-overlay/extension/content.js b/tools/synth-overlay/extension/content.js
index 2aff033..bc87c11 100644
--- a/tools/synth-overlay/extension/content.js
+++ b/tools/synth-overlay/extension/content.js
@@ -19,80 +19,146 @@
     return segments[segments.length - 1] || null;
   }
 
+  /**
+   * Validate that a pair of binary market prices sums to roughly 100¢.
+   * Allows spread of 90-110 to account for market maker spread.
+   */
+  function validatePricePair(up, down) {
+    if (up == null || down == null) return false;
+    var sum = Math.round((up + down) * 100);
+    return sum >= 90 && sum <= 110;
+  }
+
+  /**
+   * Recursively search an object for Polymarket outcome prices.
+   * Looks for {outcomes: ["Up","Down"], outcomePrices: ["0.51","0.49"]} pattern.
+   */
+  function findOutcomePricesInObject(obj) {
+    if (!obj || typeof obj !== "object") return null;
+
+    if (Array.isArray(obj.outcomePrices) && Array.isArray(obj.outcomes)) {
+      var upIdx = -1, downIdx = -1;
+      for (var i = 0; i < obj.outcomes.length; i++) {
+        var name = String(obj.outcomes[i] || "").toLowerCase().trim();
+        if (name === "up" || name === "yes") upIdx = i;
+        else if (name === "down" || name === "no") downIdx = i;
+      }
+      if (upIdx >= 0 && downIdx >= 0) {
+        var upP = parseFloat(obj.outcomePrices[upIdx]);
+        var downP = parseFloat(obj.outcomePrices[downIdx]);
+        if (!isNaN(upP) && !isNaN(downP) && upP > 0 && downP > 0) {
+          return { upPrice: upP, downPrice: downP };
+        }
+      }
+    }
+
+    var keys = Object.keys(obj);
+    for (var j = 0; j < keys.length; j++) {
+      var val = obj[keys[j]];
+      if (val && typeof val === "object") {
+        var result = findOutcomePricesInObject(val);
+        if (result) return result;
+      }
+    }
+    return null;
+  }
+
   /**
    * Scrape live Polymarket prices from the DOM.
    * Returns { upPrice: 0.XX, downPrice: 0.XX } or null if not found.
+   *
+   * Three strategies in order of reliability:
+   * 1. __NEXT_DATA__ JSON (structured, from Next.js SSR)
+   * 2. Compact DOM elements with anchored "Up XX¢" patterns
+   * 3. Price-only leaf elements with parent context walk
    */
   function scrapeLivePrices() {
     var upPrice = null;
     var downPrice = null;
-    var bodyText = document.body ? document.body.innerText : "";
-    
-    // Strategy 1: Look for outcome elements with "Up/Down" and cent values
-    var allElements = document.querySelectorAll("div, span, button, a, p");
-    
-    for (var i = 0; i < allElements.length; i++) {
-      var el = allElements[i];
-      var text = (el.innerText || el.textContent || "").trim();
-      
-      if (text.length > 50) continue;
-      
-      var upMatch = text.match(/\b(Up|Yes)\b[\s\n]*(\d{1,2})\s*[¢c¢]/i);
-      var downMatch = text.match(/\b(Down|No)\b[\s\n]*(\d{1,2})\s*[¢c¢]/i);
-      
-      if (upMatch && upMatch[2] && upPrice === null) {
-        upPrice = parseInt(upMatch[2], 10) / 100;
-      }
-      if (downMatch && downMatch[2] && downPrice === null) {
-        downPrice = parseInt(downMatch[2], 10) / 100;
+
+    // Strategy 1: Parse __NEXT_DATA__ for structured market data
+    try {
+      var ndEl = document.getElementById("__NEXT_DATA__");
+      if (ndEl) {
+        var nd = JSON.parse(ndEl.textContent);
+        var fromND = findOutcomePricesInObject(nd);
+        if (fromND && validatePricePair(fromND.upPrice, fromND.downPrice)) {
+          console.log("[Synth-Overlay] Prices from __NEXT_DATA__:", fromND);
+          return fromND;
+        }
       }
-      
+    } catch (e) {
+      console.log("[Synth-Overlay] __NEXT_DATA__ parse failed:", e.message);
+    }
+
+    // Strategy 2: Scan compact DOM elements for anchored "Up XX¢" / "Down XX¢"
+    // Only considers elements with very short text (< 20 chars) to avoid false positives.
+    // Regex is anchored (^...$) so entire text must match the pattern.
+    var els = document.querySelectorAll("button, a, span, div, p, [role='button']");
+    for (var i = 0; i < els.length; i++) {
+      var text = (els[i].textContent || "").trim();
+      if (text.length > 20 || text.length < 3) continue;
+
       if (upPrice === null) {
-        var upDecMatch = text.match(/\b(Up|Yes)\b[\s\n]*(0\.\d+)/i);
-        if (upDecMatch && upDecMatch[2]) upPrice = parseFloat(upDecMatch[2]);
+        var um = text.match(/^\s*(Up|Yes)\s*(\d{1,2})\s*[¢%]\s*$/i);
+        if (um) {
+          var up = parseInt(um[2], 10) / 100;
+          if (up >= 0.01 && up <= 0.99) upPrice = up;
+        }
       }
       if (downPrice === null) {
-        var downDecMatch = text.match(/\b(Down|No)\b[\s\n]*(0\.\d+)/i);
-        if (downDecMatch && downDecMatch[2]) downPrice = parseFloat(downDecMatch[2]);
+        var dm = text.match(/^\s*(Down|No)\s*(\d{1,2})\s*[¢%]\s*$/i);
+        if (dm) {
+          var dn = parseInt(dm[2], 10) / 100;
+          if (dn >= 0.01 && dn <= 0.99) downPrice = dn;
+        }
       }
-      
       if (upPrice !== null && downPrice !== null) break;
     }
 
-    // Strategy 2: Container-based search
-    if (upPrice === null || downPrice === null) {
-      var containers = document.querySelectorAll("[class*='market'], [class*='outcome'], [class*='option'], [class*='card']");
-      for (var j = 0; j < containers.length; j++) {
-        var container = containers[j];
-        var containerText = (container.innerText || "").toLowerCase();
-        var priceMatch = containerText.match(/(\d{1,2})\s*[¢c¢]/);
-        if (!priceMatch) continue;
-        var price = parseInt(priceMatch[1], 10) / 100;
-        if ((containerText.indexOf("up") !== -1 || containerText.indexOf("yes") !== -1) && upPrice === null) {
-          upPrice = price;
-        } else if ((containerText.indexOf("down") !== -1 || containerText.indexOf("no") !== -1) && downPrice === null) {
-          downPrice = price;
-        }
-      }
+    if (upPrice !== null && downPrice !== null && validatePricePair(upPrice, downPrice)) {
+      console.log("[Synth-Overlay] Prices from compact DOM:", { upPrice: upPrice, downPrice: downPrice });
+      return { upPrice: upPrice, downPrice: downPrice };
     }
 
-    // Strategy 3: Full body text search
-    if (upPrice === null || downPrice === null) {
-      var upBodyMatch = bodyText.match(/\bUp\b[^\d]*?(\d{1,2})\s*[¢c¢]/i);
-      var downBodyMatch = bodyText.match(/\bDown\b[^\d]*?(\d{1,2})\s*[¢c¢]/i);
-      if (upBodyMatch && upBodyMatch[1] && upPrice === null) upPrice = parseInt(upBodyMatch[1], 10) / 100;
-      if (downBodyMatch && downBodyMatch[1] && downPrice === null) downPrice = parseInt(downBodyMatch[1], 10) / 100;
+    // Strategy 3: Find leaf elements containing just "XX¢" or "XX%",
+    // then walk up the DOM tree to find "Up" or "Down" context.
+    upPrice = null;
+    downPrice = null;
+    for (var k = 0; k < els.length; k++) {
+      var el = els[k];
+      var t = (el.textContent || "").trim();
+      if (!t.match(/^\d{1,2}\s*[¢%]$/)) continue;
+      if (el.children.length > 1) continue;
+
+      var price = parseInt(t, 10) / 100;
+      if (price < 0.01 || price > 0.99) continue;
+
+      var parent = el.parentElement;
+      for (var d = 0; d < 4 && parent; d++) {
+        var pText = (parent.textContent || "").toLowerCase();
+        if (pText.length > 80) break;
+        if (/\bup\b/.test(pText) && upPrice === null) { upPrice = price; break; }
+        if (/\bdown\b/.test(pText) && downPrice === null) { downPrice = price; break; }
+        parent = parent.parentElement;
+      }
+      if (upPrice !== null && downPrice !== null) break;
     }
 
-    if (upPrice !== null && downPrice !== null) {
+    if (upPrice !== null && downPrice !== null && validatePricePair(upPrice, downPrice)) {
+      console.log("[Synth-Overlay] Prices from leaf walk:", { upPrice: upPrice, downPrice: downPrice });
       return { upPrice: upPrice, downPrice: downPrice };
     }
-    if (upPrice !== null && downPrice === null) {
+
+    // If only one price found, infer the other (no sum validation possible)
+    if (upPrice !== null && upPrice >= 0.01 && upPrice <= 0.99) {
       return { upPrice: upPrice, downPrice: 1 - upPrice };
     }
-    if (downPrice !== null && upPrice === null) {
+    if (downPrice !== null && downPrice >= 0.01 && downPrice <= 0.99) {
       return { upPrice: 1 - downPrice, downPrice: downPrice };
     }
+
+    console.log("[Synth-Overlay] Could not scrape live prices from DOM");
     return null;
   }