augur-cpp/Event.cpp at master · brennonbrimhall/augur-cpp · GitHub

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#include <algorithm>
#include <exception>
#include <iostream>
#include <random>
#include <math.h>

#include "Event.h"

Event::Event(unsigned short maxRank) {
	this->maxRank = maxRank;
}

Event::~Event() {};

void Event::addMatch(
		unsigned short red1,
		unsigned short red2,
		unsigned short red3,
		unsigned short blue1,
		unsigned short blue2,
		unsigned short blue3,
		double redWinProbability) {

	matches.push_back(Match(
						red1,
						red2,
						red3,
						blue1,
						blue2,
						blue3,
						redWinProbability));
}

void Event::addTeam(
		unsigned short number,
		unsigned char qs,
		unsigned short firstSort,
		unsigned short secondSort,
		unsigned short thirdSort,
		unsigned short fourthSort) {
	teams.push_back(Team(
					number,
					qs,
					firstSort,
					secondSort,
					thirdSort,
					fourthSort));
}

void Event::winTeam(
		std::vector<Team> &teams,
		unsigned short number) {

	for (auto &team : teams) {
		if (team.getNumber() == number) {
			team.win();
			return;
		}
	}

	std::cerr << "Couldn't find " << number << " in the rankings." << std::endl;
	std::cerr << "Are you sure that the input files are correct?" << std::endl;

	throw std::exception();
}

void Event::calculate() {
	size_t numBranches = pow(2, matches.size());

	#pragma omp parallel for
	for (size_t i = 0; i < numBranches; i++) {
		this->calculatePossibility(i);
	}

	this->root.log();
	std::cout << std::flush;
}

void Event::calculate(size_t numSims) {
	std::random_device rand_dev;
	std::mt19937_64 generator(rand_dev());
	std::uniform_int_distribution<unsigned long> distribution(0x00000000, 0xffffffff);

	unsigned long randomPossibility = 0;

	for (size_t i = 0; i < numSims; i++) {
		do {
			randomPossibility = distribution(generator);
			randomPossibility << 32;
			randomPossibility |= distribution(generator);
		} while (randomPossibility >= pow(2, matches.size()));

		this->calculatePossibility(randomPossibility);
	}

	this->root.logMonteCarlo();
	std::cout << std::flush;
}

void Event::calculatePossibility(unsigned long i) {
	auto percent = (i + 1) / (pow(2, matches.size()));
	std::cerr.precision(2);
	std::cerr << "\r" << (percent * 100) << "%" << std::flush;

	auto currentNumber = i;
	auto teams = this->teams;

	double probability = 1;

	for (size_t m = 0; m < matches.size(); m++) {
		auto outcomeNumber = currentNumber % 2;

		if (outcomeNumber == 0) {
			probability = probability * this->matches[m].getRedWinProbability();
			this->winTeam(teams, this->matches[m].getRed1());
			this->winTeam(teams, this->matches[m].getRed2());
			this->winTeam(teams, this->matches[m].getRed3());
		} else {
			probability = probability * this->matches[m].getBlueWinProbability();
			this->winTeam(teams, this->matches[m].getBlue1());
			this->winTeam(teams, this->matches[m].getBlue2());
			this->winTeam(teams, this->matches[m].getBlue3());
		}

		currentNumber /= 2;
	}

	std::sort(teams.begin(), teams.end());

	#pragma omp critical
	{
		this->updateMonteCarloSummary(teams, probability);
	}
}

void Event::updateSummary(
	std::vector<Team> &teams,
	double probability) {

	root.addChild(teams[0].getNumber(), 0);
	Node* currentNode = root.getChild(teams[0].getNumber());
	currentNode->updateProbability(probability);

	for (size_t i = 1; i < this->maxRank; i++) {
		currentNode->addChild(teams[i].getNumber(), 0);
		currentNode = currentNode->getChild(teams[i].getNumber());
		currentNode->updateProbability(probability);
	}
}

void Event::updateMonteCarloSummary(
	std::vector<Team> &teams,
	double probability) {

	root.addChild(teams[0].getNumber(), 0);
	root.updateProbability(probability);
	Node* currentNode = root.getChild(teams[0].getNumber());
	currentNode->updateProbability(probability);

	for (size_t i = 1; i < this->maxRank; i++) {
		currentNode->addChild(teams[i].getNumber(), 0);
		currentNode = currentNode->getChild(teams[i].getNumber());
		currentNode->updateProbability(probability);
	}
}